The Bigly 2016 US Presidential Election Thread, Part XV

[kiwilad]

Originally Posted by womanfish

New survey just in from TargetSmart for Ohio early voters. Like Florida, they show a 7% lead for Clinton in Ohio. They showed an 8% lead for Clinton in Florida and that was before the recent boost in the Latino votes that have happened in recent days.

We could be looking at a landslide. I have said for months there is a hidden Clinton voting block, and these numbers are bearing that out.

If that ends up happening that would turn an incredibly depressing moment in history into an incredibly positive one.

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[Axver]

Originally Posted by kiwilad

Thank god such stuff hasn't entered the political discourse in NZ. Yet. It exists here too though.
Perhaps when there's no external enemy to be afraid of and unite against together, people find enemies closer to home.

Whenever I go back to NZ it's amazing just how much more peaceful politics seem than the soap opera on this side of the ditch. It obviously has its problems, and I wish the Key government would take a walk, but you just need to look at Australia or the US to be reminded how much worse it can be.

[LemonMelon]

I'm certain that Clinton will win and have said so repeatedly in this thread, even when things looked rather bleak for a day or two, but I'm still not ready to say this will be a landslide.

[the iron horse]

Originally Posted by womanfish

New survey just in from TargetSmart for Ohio early voters. Like Florida, they show a 7% lead for Clinton in Ohio. They showed an 8% lead for Clinton in Florida and that was before the recent boost in the Latino votes that have happened in recent days.

We could be looking at a landslide. I have said for months there is a hidden Clinton voting block, and these numbers are bearing that out.

I think it might go the other way. Despite Trump's faults, he has struck a fine tuned chord with many Americans who are sick and tired of failed promises and no active solutions to address our problems. Both the Republicans and the Democrats do NOTHING but glory in their power. So telling that the Bush family and other big goverment Republicans have thrown their support to Clinton.

I have friends and know people who have never voted who say they will be voting for Trump. If that happens across the country, Trump will win.

Donald Trump is no saint, I agree, but compared to what Hillary Clinton and the powers that be represent, he seems like a breath of fresh air.

[BEAL]

That's The tic tacs


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[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by the iron horse

I think it might go the other way. Despite Trump's faults, he has struck a fine tuned chord with many Americans who are sick and tired of failed promises and no active solutions to address our problems. Both the Republicans and the Democrats do NOTHING but glory in their power. So telling that the Bush family and other big goverment Republicans have thrown their support to Clinton.



I have friends and know people who have never voted who say they will be voting for Trump. If that happens across the country, Trump will win.



Donald Trump is no saint, I agree, but compared to what Hillary Clinton and the powers that be represent, he seems like a breath of fresh air.

This is the Trump voter, and this is the problem the GOP is going to have to deal with in the aftermath of this election.

It's also telling that though the Clinton campaign is upbeat, they don't know (and can't know) how many IH's are out there. The white men who never vote but may be compelled to vote Trump to stick it to the system that has brought them down. So they are being cautious. Because, unlike Trump, they know what they don't know. (Trump doesn't know what he doesn't know).

[kiwilad]

Originally Posted by the iron horse

Donald Trump is no saint, I agree, but compared to what Hillary Clinton and the powers that be represent, he seems like a breath of fresh air.

This has been confusing me. This acceptance that Trump is not a great candidate but people will vote for him "compared to Hillary".

But... weren't there like, a dozen GOP candidates up for grabs and Republican voters overwhelmingly chose this horrific, racist, bigoted, misogynistic, privileged twat?

I watched the Van Jones clips where he goes out to Gettysburg and talks to Republicans about why they're voting for Trump. They all accept he's a twat, but they believe Clinton is worse. They seem to be justifying their vote on the "lesser of two evils" argument, as they KNOW Trump is horrifc, but you know, their hands are tied.

Well their hands weren't tied during the primaries.

I don't buy it. All those Republicans who had so many choices overwhelmingly voted this guy to be their candidate. He had already shown his colours.

It isn't enough, now that it's crunch time, to hide behind the "I know he's a twat but what can I do when I think Hillary is worse" line. I call bullshit on that. Millions of people elected this guy, knowing who and what he was. They had choices then. Lots of them. They chose the sociopath. They chose Trump. They didn't vote Trump because it was "anyone but Hillary". They HAD A CHOICE. And they CHOSE him.

And I just can't work out why.

[Moonlit_Angel]

Originally Posted by kiwilad

This has been confusing me. This acceptance that Trump is not a great candidate but people will vote for him "compared to Hillary".

But... weren't there like, a dozen GOP candidates up for grabs and Republican voters overwhelmingly chose this horrific, racist, bigoted, misogynistic, privileged twat?

I watched the Van Jones clips where he goes out to Gettysburg and talks to Republicans about why they're voting for Trump. They all accept he's a twat, but they believe Clinton is worse. They seem to be justifying their vote on the "lesser of two evils" argument, as they KNOW Trump is horrifc, but you know, their hands are tied.

Well their hands weren't tied during the primaries.

I don't buy it. All those Republicans who had so many choices overwhelmingly voted this guy to be their candidate. He had already shown his colours.

It isn't enough, now that it's crunch time, to hide behind the "I know he's a twat but what can I do when I think Hillary is worse" line. I call bullshit on that. Millions of people elected this guy, knowing who and what he was. They had choices then. Lots of them. They chose the sociopath. They chose Trump. They didn't vote Trump because it was "anyone but Hillary". They HAD A CHOICE. And they CHOSE him.

And I just can't work out why.

Excellent post, this .

[BVS]

Originally Posted by the iron horse

I think it might go the other way. Despite Trump's faults, he has struck a fine tuned chord with many Americans who are sick and tired of failed promises and no active solutions to address our problems. Both the Republicans and the Democrats do NOTHING but glory in their power. So telling that the Bush family and other big goverment Republicans have thrown their support to Clinton.



I have friends and know people who have never voted who say they will be voting for Trump. If that happens across the country, Trump will win.



Donald Trump is no saint, I agree, but compared to what Hillary Clinton and the powers that be represent, he seems like a breath of fresh air.

It's amazing to me that anyone would or could believe what Trump is offering up are "solutions", or that he's not big government.

You have two individuals that have a very unique perspective, they actually have been in the seat of the presidency, they know what it takes and they see a clown that is unfit for the job. Therefore they are voting against their own personal benefit. THAT should be the telling part. The Bush's have absolutely NOTHING to benefit from voting in a Clinton. This is the nonsense that got us a serial liar, misogynistic, racist clown this close to the presidency to begin with.


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[VintagePunk]

This is perhaps the best explanation for Trump's rise that I have seen.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/06/op...imes&smtyp=cur

[Moonlit_Angel]

When Hillary Clinton started at Yale Law School in 1969, there was only one woman in the United States Senate. It was legal for a man to rape his wife, but abortion was mostly outlawed.

That is hideously fucked up on so many levels.

As of early October, more than half of men believed that Mr. Trump respected women either “some” or “a lot.”

Men don’t need more masculine posturing or promises to restore them to forever-gone greatness. What they need is to make their own move toward gender equality, to break down the stereotypes and fetters of masculinity. Feminists, understandably, have focused on women; we have enough to do without being tasked with improving the lot of often-misogynistic men, too. If the white men who feel ignored, disrespected and lost want to see their lives improve, they should take a cue from the great feminist strides women have made and start to embrace that progress. Life really is better with more fluid gender roles that allow individuals to do what they’re good at instead of what’s socially prescribed. Every feminist I know will tell you that men bring much more to the table than physical strength or a paycheck, and that we would love a world in which men were free to be resilient and tender, ambitious and nurturing, expressive and emotional.

Bingo.

Excellent piece.

[Hewson]

Originally Posted by kiwilad

This has been confusing me. This acceptance that Trump is not a great candidate but people will vote for him "compared to Hillary".

But... weren't there like, a dozen GOP candidates up for grabs and Republican voters overwhelmingly chose this horrific, racist, bigoted, misogynistic, privileged twat?

I watched the Van Jones clips where he goes out to Gettysburg and talks to Republicans about why they're voting for Trump. They all accept he's a twat, but they believe Clinton is worse. They seem to be justifying their vote on the "lesser of two evils" argument, as they KNOW Trump is horrifc, but you know, their hands are tied.

Well their hands weren't tied during the primaries.

I don't buy it. All those Republicans who had so many choices overwhelmingly voted this guy to be their candidate. He had already shown his colours.

It isn't enough, now that it's crunch time, to hide behind the "I know he's a twat but what can I do when I think Hillary is worse" line. I call bullshit on that. Millions of people elected this guy, knowing who and what he was. They had choices then. Lots of them. They chose the sociopath. They chose Trump. They didn't vote Trump because it was "anyone but Hillary". They HAD A CHOICE. And they CHOSE him.

And I just can't work out why.

Its the same argument for voting for Hillary for many though. Plenty of folks only voting for her because Trump is the other option.
So shouldn't you also chastise Dems who selected her in the primary over all the other viable Democratic choices?

 

Oh yeah Bill cut a deal with the DNC that she run unopposed and only Independent Bernie chose to disobey him

Its almost over...just 2 more days.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

So a few things...

Trump for a long time couldn't crack the 40% ceiling in his own party. He was winning primaries in the mid 30s. He's a product of too many candidates all knocking each other off. In no way did he get a big mandate from his own party. By the time it was down to Trump, Cruz and Kasich it was already too late.

It wasn't until after everyone else dropped out that all the Republicans who said they'd be horrified to have Trump as their nominee started sucking at the orange teet. A few said hell nah from the beginning and stuck to their hell nahs throughout, and when this guy gets curb stomped tomorrow, they'll be the ones able to take the high ground.


But generally speaking I do agree with the idea of a non-politician winning the White House instead of the same old same old. A lot of people do. But thanks to the ineptitude of the GOP, that idea is blown for a number of years.

What will be most interesting will be to see what the GOP does next. Do they double down on the hate, or so they try to bridge the gap and pull themselves out of the mud?

I actually think they'll double down.

[Oregoropa]

Just a reminder. Final Electoral Maps by 12 am East Coast Time. Dixville Notch, NH is the first to report then.

I wish you all safe travels to your polling places to exercise our sacred right as American citizens.



Oh, and Fuck Ted Cruz


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[Moonlit_Angel]

Originally Posted by Oregoropa

I wish you all safe travels to your polling places to exercise our sacred right as American citizens.

Attachment 10958

Oh, and Fuck Ted Cruz

As heated as the discussions have been here this election cycle, I do love that we can all come together in our feelings about Ted Cruz .

Seconding the "safe travels" wishes, too .

[Danny Boy]

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

I actually think they'll double down.

.

[Irvine511]

someone i know who's political knowledge i deeply trust gave me a very conservative rundown of where he thinks the states will go, and they gave HRC about 300 EVs (having her lose OH and FL, but win NC and IA). my takeaways:

1. she's going to win Iowa; her ground game is powerful
2. OH is crapshoot, no one knows anything, no one trusts it, they gave it to Trump
3. if -- *if* -- Latinos show up on Tuesday the way they did last week then it's in the bag; they are not yet convinced that it's an expansion of voters rather than a shifting of when people vote

as always, fwiw ...

[BoMac]

Originally Posted by Oregoropa

Just a reminder. Final Electoral Maps by 12 am East Coast Time. Dixville Notch, NH is the first to report then.

I wish you all safe travels to your polling places to exercise our sacred right as American citizens.

Attachment 10958

Oh, and Fuck Ted Cruz


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I think Ted Cruz will be just fine. He owns the Chicago Cubs after all.















Wait...that's not Ted Cruz?!

[BEAL]

that's a good point on the shifting of vote timing. Could it be more that people just wanted to get it done early compared to years past? Or did Trump mobilize a whole lot more voters....

Either scenario is good for Clinton as numbers just need to match what Obama has pulled in the past, especially with Hispanics.

My feeling is that this turns out to be a landslide for HC. While there's plenty of apathy towards this system, most of that stems from the younger crowd and they don't turn up to vote anyway.

I do feel that the hispanic, and female votes go strongly to HC and that blows Trump out.

Could easily be wrong, and Trump could win (scary), but more and more the data that is coming in points to Clinton winning. We just don't know the final score.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Both candidates will be fucking up my commute tomorrow, so I'd like to thank them for that.