The Bigly 2016 US Presidential Election Thread, Part XV

[LuckyNumber7]

I like how Maryland is the random holdout in your fantasy.

[Mrs. Garrison]

It's happening....

[bobsaget77]

Originally Posted by Oregoropa

We should all post our final maps before midnight 11/8 (Monday)



When you look at my map you may think I smoked crack and then Jumped a Shark and smoked more crack. I expect those responses.



I have lived in many different states NJ, OR, NV, and currently PA.



Before Last Friday the race was tightening. Early vote indicators show a 40% surge in Independent/Unaffiliated voters over 2012. Trump is consistently leading with Independents in polls. These are folks who are pissed off at both parties in the past 4 years and or people that have never voted before (or haven't in years). The Blue Collar Midwest voter that stayed home last go around would have given Romney the victory in 2012. Pollsters cannot figure out this number that Trump is drawing out of the woodwork nationwide. Bottomline the 2012 model is not optimal in the R-D-I sampling model of polls.



Let's dig deeper into some of what we know. According to early voting African-American turnout is down significantly from 2012. Before Friday Trump was polling above 20% African-American Support in PA, NC, and FL. Hillary needs to hold him below 15% in that demographic or it could spell real problems for her.



Traditional polling on landlines is more difficult nowadays. In 1984, 45% of phone calls were answered with successful questioning. That number is down to 9% today.



History has shown us that in a change election undecideds break toward the challenger of the statuts quo in the final days.



Let's give Trump a 4% boost in the regard.



Trump overperformed polls in primary battles. Proof positive a Shy-Tory effect (Brexitology) of people who voted for Trump but were afraid to tell the pollster. Primaries are different but the same phenomenom is probably going on as well with the current polls.



3% Trump advantage.



The mystery volume of those never voters. Seen pundits speculate 4-6%.



4% Trump advantage



Many Never-Trumpers have come to realize the stakes of sitting on the sidelines with the FBI re-opening the investigation. His GOP support levels will trend from the high 70s to near 90% when they get in the ballot box. In an ABC Washington Post poll Trump led Hillary by 11 points when asked of those for Day of Voting.



With Friday's investigation announcement google trends showed a massive spike in people want to change their early votes. Most in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin. Hillary's numbers will be deflated with the revelations. Especially in big Bernie states in New England, the Midwest, and Oregon.



Taking all these measures into account I come to the conclusion that Trump will win states where is currently tied to even -4 down. They belong to him. Virginia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are now statistical dead heats. Minnesota had a poll 10 days ago that only showed Trump down 2. Wisconsin had a poll with him up 4. Bear in mind The people of Minnesota are up in arms over a 60% healthcare surge in cost. The legislature is even calling for an emergency session. When these bills hit your kitchen table, your preconceived notions of who the candidates are goes out the window. There goes the vacation you planned. How in God's name am I gonna budget for this? Real life pocketbook issues will drive the voters to look at both candidates' policies on Obamacare. Advantage Trump.



During the Summer there were several polls that showed the race to close for comfort with Trump down 4 in NJ, 4 in Rhode Island, 2 in CT, Tied in Maine, Up 2 in Oregon.

Hillary is now running ads in NJ. Making massive ad buy in Michigan and Virginia as well. The campaigns' behaviors tell you what their internal polling is telling them. Since Friday Trump has started hitting Michigan and Wisconsin on campaign stops.



Jimmy Carter's pollster Pat Caddell said "the dam is breaking" much like he saw in 1980 which led to the Reagan landslide victory.

Good stuff and well thought out post.

Here's mine.
I think he could very well steal Penn, VA, Michigan, and Wisky.
They're all close in many of the latest polls. But i'll wait to see how they play out this weekend.

[LemonMelon]

Originally Posted by Moonlit_Angel

That is a scary looking map.

(Times like this I wish my favorite color wasn't red )

I didn't find it scary. I laughed.

[Oregoropa]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

I like how Maryland is the random holdout in your fantasy.

Tons of suburban DC workers make up the bulk of the population plus Baltimore.

Virginia has much more to wash out the NOVA Government employees.

[Moonlit_Angel]

Oh, yeah, it's ludicrous. But still, just the mere thought of an electoral map looking like that...eesh.

[LemonMelon]

I lived in Maryland for 16 years. I'm proud that even Oregoropa doesn't think they have a shot of supporting Trump.

[Moonlit_Angel]

I really wish I could say the same about my state .

[bono_212]

Originally Posted by BVS

I do have a small amount of fear, by either outcome really. I fear violence if she wins, although small isolated events. But if he wins... I see a child that will flex his power as soon as he can, and results will be like a toddler playing with matches.

As I said, my only hope, if there is violence if Hillary wins, is that it opens peoples eyes up to some of the MAJOR problems we have in this country.

Originally Posted by BigMacPhisto

I think violence is far more likely if Trump is elected than the other way around. I could see the black community in inner cities going off-the-chain about it all

Of course you do....modddzz plzzzzzzzzzz

Originally Posted by anitram

My husband is an economist and his clients (talking about hedge fund managers, etc) are all in a panic over a Trump victory and believe the markets will crash immediately if that happens. So unfortunately in our household the tv will be on until the wee hours of the morning.

I'm pretty sure I'll take one of my sleeping pills at 10 pm and knock myself out haha.

This is my biggest fear. Didn't the market already come crashing down once when he was polling ahead of her?

Originally Posted by LemonMelon

I didn't find it scary. I laughed.

When I saw how long the post was, I knew there could only be hilarity at the end.

[Oregoropa]

Originally Posted by Moonlit_Angel

Oh, yeah, it's ludicrous. But still, just the mere thought of an electoral map looking like that...eesh.

This is where I enjoy the forum. We all digest the information a different way and focus on the numbers rather than raw emotion. As I've said before I'm the 'Red Team' analyzer that will present a different set of data.

This situation we are in now is unprecedented. Anything can happen.

[deep]

I think the winner will get somewhere in the 275-325 range.

[deep]

I really hate the Electoral College, it is about as legitimate as dueling and slavery and brought to you by people that practiced the same.

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by Oregoropa

Tons of suburban DC workers make up the bulk of the population plus Baltimore.



Virginia has much more to wash out the NOVA Government employees.

In the scope and context of your fantasy, I would hardly call that true. Especially because the scenario you're describing exists virtually everywhere where a major metropolitan area exists. In the case of your fantasy, if it happens everywhere else, it happens in Maryland. See: Reagan, Ronald.

[Oregoropa]

Originally Posted by deep

I really hate the Electoral College, it is about as legitimate as Julian and slavery and brought to you by the same people

Without the Electoral College both candidates would hit the same suburbs over and over for months.

If the Electoral College doesn't make sense then the US Senate presents the same conundrum. 2 Senators for California and 2 Senators for Wyoming.

The Constitution has been tweaked over time to allow for Direct elections by the population in Presidential Elections and the same for US Senate ( it used to be the state legislators picked the Senators)

The framers original intent was a Federalist approach for balance between the states, and the states retaining a greater amount of power than they have today.

As we have seen in many elections the Electoral College can cut both ways. I still like it because it causes our politicians to focus on the entire country. Some states though small in population provide great value to the country in natural resources and production.

[BVS]

Originally Posted by Oregoropa

We should all post our final maps before midnight 11/8 (Monday)



When you look at my map you may think I smoked crack and then Jumped a Shark and smoked more crack. I expect those responses.



I have lived in many different states NJ, OR, NV, and currently PA.



Before Last Friday the race was tightening. Early vote indicators show a 40% surge in Independent/Unaffiliated voters over 2012. Trump is consistently leading with Independents in polls. These are folks who are pissed off at both parties in the past 4 years and or people that have never voted before (or haven't in years). The Blue Collar Midwest voter that stayed home last go around would have given Romney the victory in 2012. Pollsters cannot figure out this number that Trump is drawing out of the woodwork nationwide. Bottomline the 2012 model is not optimal in the R-D-I sampling model of polls.



Let's dig deeper into some of what we know. According to early voting African-American turnout is down significantly from 2012. Before Friday Trump was polling above 20% African-American Support in PA, NC, and FL. Hillary needs to hold him below 15% in that demographic or it could spell real problems for her.



Traditional polling on landlines is more difficult nowadays. In 1984, 45% of phone calls were answered with successful questioning. That number is down to 9% today.



History has shown us that in a change election undecideds break toward the challenger of the statuts quo in the final days.



Let's give Trump a 4% boost in the regard.



Trump overperformed polls in primary battles. Proof positive a Shy-Tory effect (Brexitology) of people who voted for Trump but were afraid to tell the pollster. Primaries are different but the same phenomenom is probably going on as well with the current polls.



3% Trump advantage.



The mystery volume of those never voters. Seen pundits speculate 4-6%.



4% Trump advantage



Many Never-Trumpers have come to realize the stakes of sitting on the sidelines with the FBI re-opening the investigation. His GOP support levels will trend from the high 70s to near 90% when they get in the ballot box. In an ABC Washington Post poll Trump led Hillary by 11 points when asked of those for Day of Voting.



With Friday's investigation announcement google trends showed a massive spike in people want to change their early votes. Most in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin. Hillary's numbers will be deflated with the revelations. Especially in big Bernie states in New England, the Midwest, and Oregon.



Taking all these measures into account I come to the conclusion that Trump will win states where is currently tied to even -4 down. They belong to him. Virginia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are now statistical dead heats. Minnesota had a poll 10 days ago that only showed Trump down 2. Wisconsin had a poll with him up 4. Bear in mind The people of Minnesota are up in arms over a 60% healthcare surge in cost. The legislature is even calling for an emergency session. When these bills hit your kitchen table, your preconceived notions of who the candidates are goes out the window. There goes the vacation you planned. How in God's name am I gonna budget for this? Real life pocketbook issues will drive the voters to look at both candidates' policies on Obamacare. Advantage Trump.



During the Summer there were several polls that showed the race to close for comfort with Trump down 4 in NJ, 4 in Rhode Island, 2 in CT, Tied in Maine, Up 2 in Oregon.

Hillary is now running ads in NJ. Making massive ad buy in Michigan and Virginia as well. The campaigns' behaviors tell you what their internal polling is telling them. Since Friday Trump has started hitting Michigan and Wisconsin on campaign stops.



Jimmy Carter's pollster Pat Caddell said "the dam is breaking" much like he saw in 1980 which led to the Reagan landslide victory.

Not even Trump or Breitbart are living in this delusion.


Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference

[deep]

October 1980 poll had Reagan 39 Carter 45 Jon Anderson 9 (never-Reagan) candidate

and look at that map
Oreogropa could be on to something

[BVS]

Originally Posted by deep

October 1980 poll had Reagan 39 Carter 45 Jon Anderson 9 (never-Reagan) candidate

and look at that map
Oreogropa could be on to something

1980 is very comparable to 2016, so maybe you're right.


Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference

[Oregoropa]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

In the scope and context of your fantasy, I would hardly call that true. Especially because the scenario you're describing exists virtually everywhere where a major metropolitan area exists. In the case of your fantasy, if it happens everywhere else, it happens in Maryland. See: Reagan, Ronald.

Northern Virginia and Metro Maryland are different than an average metro. Trump is perceived as threat to the DC power structure and would upset the apple cart if elected. These lobbyist, bureaucrats may prefer the status quo regardless of party, based on their own self-interest.

If Trump shrinks executive agencies, their jobs are on the line. If he doesn't play ball like the past 30 years lobbying firms may lose some of their power and have to shed employees.

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by Oregoropa

Northern Virginia and Metro Maryland are different than an average metro. Trump is perceived as threat to the DC power structure and would upset the apple cart if elected. These lobbyist, bureaucrats may prefer the status quo regardless of party, based on their own self-interest.



If Trump shrinks executive agencies, their jobs are on the line. If he doesn't play ball like the past 30 years lobbying firms may lose some of their power and have to shed employees.

I have very strong ties to DC, and I lived in Virginia. The notion that greater-DC in Maryland has a pull on the entire state in a world where this isn't the case anywhere else... wouldn't go down like that. You're vastly overestimating greater-DC Maryland and simply underestimating DC-NOVA, at that.

[Oregoropa]

Originally Posted by deep

October 1980 poll had Reagan 39 Carter 45 Jon Anderson 9 (never-Reagan) candidate

and look at that map
Oreogropa could be on to something

Plus we have never had an October surprise like this one. Everything is in flux, with very little for the Clinton camp to start making inroads into. They have to hope to hold the blue wall minus Iowa-Ohio and make their stand in North Carolina to deny Trump that state. Their scheduling has shown this to be where they see their Stalingrad or it could be their Waterloo.