Of course I'm not Vlad, but do you think Melenchon may have a similar effect on the France election the way Bernie did within the Democratic party?
well, it's difficult to say, as Melenchon already has his own party (he broke away from the Socialists some years ago as they veered to the right)... but, for sure, there really does seem to be a spirit of optimism and hope about him, totally in contrast to the bitterness, hate and negativity fuelling Le Pen's campaign... my (adult) kids are really inspired by him - it's their first election here as adults, and they are 100% behind Melenchon (sadly we can't effing vote though as we don't have French nationality), and apparently every single one of their friends will be voting for Melenchon, so he really seems to have inspired young people, although some of the youth population (particularly in the rural context) are pro-Le Pen - the youth vote is really split among the 2 extremes... there is definitely that suspicion about big money, banking, multinational corporations among Melenchon supporters regarding the other main candidates, such as Macron and Fillon, and I see Macron (centrist candidate) getting similar treatment to Hilary in pro-Melenchon articles etc., i.e., he will only benefit big business and the rich... that's also a given with Fillon who is already up to his eyeballs in corruption scandals... out of the 4 main candidates, Melenchon really seems to be offering something new, especially re. the environment, the whole system even, whereas Macron and Fillon are pretty much same old same old, and Le Pen is plain dangerous
i've seen Melenchon being described as the French Bernie Sanders, and Le Pen as Trump... i think there is definitely a similar spirit, but obviously, being France, Melenchon is so much further to the left on the scale of things than perhaps Bernie would be...
If he gets through: Would his votes help Le Pen?
not sure i understand what you mean?
there are 11 candidates overall in the first round, but the 4 main candidates are all pretty close, so it's really a race between those 4 in the first round, and then the top 2 will go into the run-off two weeks later for the second round...
really hard to say how the second round could go... if Melenchon gets thru, and Le Pen is out, that will be fantastic... if he is up against Fillon, i imagine Le Pen voters might think of backing Fillon (who is very right wing, too far right for some French Republicans even), although perhaps some of her more "working class" voters might swing towards Melenchon for the social aspect... and i would imagine the socialists would back Melenchon against Fillon, but not sure about Macron's voters as they could veer either left or right - possibly right to stick with the money... although polls suggest Fillon would lose to Melenchon, but it's difficult to know for sure...
if Melenchon is up against Macron, i have no clue, but polls suggest Macron would win... Macron would definitely get Fillon's votes, and i reckon Le Pen's votes would be split, as would the socialists' votes (Macron was also a socialist like Melenchon originally and socialist politicians have already defected from the Socialist party to support him)
if Melenchon is up against Le Pen, then God help us all - it would be too bloody stressful haha (although polls say Le Pen would lose to Melenchon - polls also say she would lose to Macron and Fillon - it really is unlikely that she would win the election, but honestly you just never know)
I would hope the French would vote for Melenchon to block Le Pen, but again, it's so hard to know - world politics is so fucked up right now, it's impossible not to assume the worst...
If he doesn't: Would his supporters stay home or vote against Le Pen (or for her?)
no way, not in a million years would Melenchon's voters support Le Pen - he has publicly denounced her as a fascist (and won the libel case when she tried to sue lol) and is the polar opposite in terms of ideology - so i am pretty sure they would vote to block her at least...
This feels like a very critical election for Europe. Having someone like Le Pen in charge, guess it's a lot like Trump....we don't really know what will happen. Assume the worst, hope for meh.
i feel so sick thinking about the whole thing - am so worried... even dreaming about it, statistics and everything and waking up exhausted haha going to be a tough few weeks...
my best outcome would be Melenchon, obviously, but maybe i am too naive wanting to believe that a better, fairer world is possible...
i could live with Macron, but meh it would be same old same old, but Fillon in particular could do untold damage to the French healthcare system and would tear public services apart... Le Pen, well i would be devastated and would cry for France and feel something has gone horribly wrong with the country i love and believe in, Liberte Fraternite Egalite
