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Old 11-17-2016, 08:02 PM   #981
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Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7 View Post
since you seem to be a numbers guy, what is the most lop-sided the vote could be and still give a win to a popular vote loser

and I am only talking in theory, based on this system we have.
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Old 11-17-2016, 08:07 PM   #982
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Originally Posted by monkeyskin View Post
But would they try harder if the EC votes weren't all lost causes? Maybe Hillary would have stopped by Wisconsin at least once too.

yeah, but she had the most brilliant team ever assembled, both google and FB, signed on early and offered to do anything they could for her, CNN, Wolf Blitzer, called and asked Podesta for questions he should ask Trump and Ted Cruz, she got debate questions in advance, Her team had money to burn

so there is absolutely no second guessing of the campaign and the choices they made.
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Old 11-17-2016, 08:15 PM   #983
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Trump General Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by deep View Post
since you seem to be a numbers guy, what is the most lop-sided the vote could be and still give a win to a popular vote loser



and I am only talking in theory, based on this system we have.

Definitely not a numbers guy, just a slow day at the office with excel open. I'm sure any number of analysts would balk at my rounding method.

So I can't answer your question, but would love to know the answer from someone else.

Off the top of my head though, it would depend on how individual states vote. If you win the popular vote of some states by 90+% but that's almost all of your turnout, would the other states' EC numbers crush you anyway? Depends on which states, right?

I'm not questioning the outcome of this election, it's just interesting to look at hypotheticals in such a historical and contentious race.

Edit - Cameron won the last UK election with around a third of the popular vote and was able to form a majority government under that system. In this US election, all the conditions were there for Trump to clinch it decisively where it counted, at the EC.
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Old 11-17-2016, 08:19 PM   #984
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In theory
A person could get 11 votes and the other candidate 70,000,000
And 11 votes wins the Electoral College.
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Old 11-17-2016, 08:26 PM   #985
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Originally Posted by deep View Post
In theory
A person could get 11 votes and the other candidate 70,000,000
And 11 votes wins the Electoral College.

In theory.

In theory, communism works! In theory.

But yes, that certainly is pretty lopsided if those 70m votes only count for 10 EC votes or less. Those 11 votes equalling 11 EC votes must belong to Clinton Foundation donors in this example.
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Old 11-17-2016, 08:27 PM   #986
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deep View Post
since you seem to be a numbers guy, what is the most lop-sided the vote could be and still give a win to a popular vote loser



and I am only talking in theory, based on this system we have.

I mean just find the most valuable delegate-per-vote states and find award the states in order of least population to most population until you hit 270, make the candidate win those states by 1 vote, and have them not get any votes in the states they lose and you'll have your relatively optimized theoretical scenario.

Realistic theoretical scenario? I don't know. But that optimal scenario would be tens of millions of votes behind, I imagine.
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Old 11-17-2016, 08:32 PM   #987
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11 states add up to 270
Those 11 states all have a voter turnout of one person
The other 39 states have a 90% turnout and they all vote for the other guy.
11 to 70,000,000
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Old 11-17-2016, 08:32 PM   #988
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Well, there you go.

Although I like deep's scenario of having only 21 votes. It can be like backgammon! Uber-cautious Hillary sticks on 17. Donnie obviously goes bust like his numerous failed businesses. Hillary wins.
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Old 11-17-2016, 09:06 PM   #989
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these 11 states add up to 270 electoral college votes

1) California- 55
2) Texas- 38
3) Florida- 29
4) New York- 29
5) Illinois- 20
6) Pennsylvania- 20
7) Ohio- 18
8) Georgia- 16
9) Michigan- 16
10) North Carolina- 15
11) New Jersey- 14

note : These 11 states that add up to 50.2% of the EC vote add up to 57% of the US population
the 39 other states and DC that get 268 EC or 49.8% and represent only 43% of US population


2 Texas is the only one that is reliable GOP, and some in here think it will flip in 4, 8 12 years for sure,

8 Georgia could flip also.

the other 9 go Democrat or lean Dem or are trending Dem in the future


why the Dems would want to end the EC when they almost have a lock just shows how emotional and irrational this lost has them. I know it was not supposed to be an election where the results determined the outcome, it was supposed to be a coronation, Obama's third term, he said he would consider it a personal insult to him if she lost. Well the people heard him and answered.
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Old 11-17-2016, 09:15 PM   #990
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Old 11-17-2016, 09:25 PM   #991
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deep View Post
why the Dems would want to end the EC when they almost have a lock just shows how emotional and irrational this lost has them.
Or, you know, they could have advocated on principle for years that the electoral college should be abolished as an absurd and undemocratic institution that has long since outlived any justification it used to have.

It's an institution about which very little positive can be said, and the sooner your country gets rid of it - and introduces preferential voting too - the better for your democracy.
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Old 11-17-2016, 09:28 PM   #992
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Originally Posted by deep View Post
ha, ha, I got to laugh

not WE missed something

I posted that all season the polls were over-estimating Hillary voters and under-estimating Trumps voters in all the primary votes, and based on that and all the states that had her only up 1-2 points, he should win those states

that post was labeled, a troll
bullshit. you called a hillary win at least twice *on election day*. don't act like you had it right all along.
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Old 11-17-2016, 09:31 PM   #993
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Originally Posted by Axver View Post
Or, you know, they could have advocated on principle for years that the electoral college should be abolished as an absurd and undemocratic institution that has long since outlived any justification it used to have.

It's an institution about which very little positive can be said, and the sooner your country gets rid of it - and introduces preferential voting too - the better for your democracy.

Sorry, Hillary, Podesta and the whole team were as silent as church mouses because there were many models the had her easily getting to 270, and a few of them had Trump with the popular vote. Show me any article printed before the election with her or her team not wanting the EC to be the decider and any talk of wanting to end it.
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Old 11-17-2016, 09:37 PM   #994
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Originally Posted by DaveC View Post
bullshit. you called a hillary win at least twice *on election day*. don't act like you had it right all along.
that's about correct, I was never heavily, emotionally invested in either side, I thought it would be close within 2 %,, all along I thought Hillary would pull it out, but I believed Trump had a better than 85-15, 80-20, or 70-30 shot


there is a post, a few days before the election where I did write what I said I did, about the polls being wrong all season, and with that in mind, Trump could or should win,

I can probably find it, would that make your life a little better?
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Old 11-17-2016, 09:44 PM   #995
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Originally Posted by DaveC View Post
don't act like you had it right all along.


since you include the words, 'all along'

all along, I have said Trump had the best chance of beating Hillary, not that he would, but he could

all along, during the primaries, pretty much from the beginning when he was being dismissed as a joke that would fade away, I did recognize that he was more than that

so of course, I was more correct than most of the people that post in here, I have no problem when I make an error, but having a different opinion than the majority in here has little bearing on being in error.
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Old 11-17-2016, 09:55 PM   #996
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Originally Posted by Oregoropa View Post
Not sure. Luzerne County, PA (Wilkes-Barre) near where I live went +5 Obama to +19 Trump.



I would imagine the turnout was higher in many of these areas, where Trump's message resonated.

My point is yeah, there was a "sea change", but it's not the one you're picturing. What we're seeing here is a reduction of "normal" Republican voters being replaced by those first time voters that IH was talking about. The "alt-right" voters who finally had a president they could vocally endorse.

So a rise in the first time alt right voters, a huge reduction in your normal republican voters, and the demographic that helped you the most may be around for one maybe two elections.


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Old 11-17-2016, 09:58 PM   #997
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Tom Hanks on Donald Trump as President: "We'll Be OK" | Museum of Modern Art Film Benefit 2016 | Hollywood Reporter

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Old 11-17-2016, 10:04 PM   #998
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Yeah, if you didn't realize, that's not exactly an endorsement. A handful of posters here including myself had the same sentiment. Hope he's great, because of no desire to watch the world burn.

It's baseless hope at this point. But that's pretty much all we've got.
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Old 11-17-2016, 10:10 PM   #999
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Keep hope alive.
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Old 11-17-2016, 10:12 PM   #1000
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People are going way overboard on this election

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