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Old 04-29-2020, 08:05 PM   #761
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Would also like to note that the NHL and NBA and NFL and MLB have the capital and resources to be able to test their players on a regular basis. There’s a reason we started hearing about all those NBA players testing positive... they had the ability to test them.

The bigger challenge I see with sports is trying to work with the players associations and the respective CBAs to handle how players get paid. Without butts in seats, there’s less money to go around.
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Old 04-29-2020, 08:07 PM   #762
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Erin Burnett just had a segment with some sports reporter who has inside MLB sources. He said they are working on a plan to start games without fans in late June. Spring training of sorts in early June. Reorganized divisions to limit travel as much as possible. I don't want to get my hopes up at all but it sure would be nice. No Arizona plan like the one that had been rumored. They actually said Trump didn't like that plan, you'd think he would have much bigger things to worry about. The players don't want to be quarantined without their families.
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Old 04-29-2020, 08:18 PM   #763
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It's not uncommon in soccer to play without fans when nations get sanctioned for prior bad fan behaviour. I've seen a bunch of these games on TV and truthfully it's really boring.

I do think leagues will play to no audiences. There is no way stadiums or arenas will be open in 2020.

My question would be related to insurance policies these teams must have on players - they would almost certainly be voided by returning to competitive play (even without an audience).
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Old 04-29-2020, 09:09 PM   #764
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Would also like to note that the NHL and NBA and NFL and MLB have the capital and resources to be able to test their players on a regular basis. There’s a reason we started hearing about all those NBA players testing positive... they had the ability to test them.

The bigger challenge I see with sports is trying to work with the players associations and the respective CBAs to handle how players get paid. Without butts in seats, there’s less money to go around.
The overwhelming majority of money in modern professional sports comes from the TV contracts. So it's not as big a concern as you would think.

MLB will take a bigger hit than the other three... but they'll survive. I think their gate revenues make up just shy of 30% of total revenue.
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Old 04-29-2020, 10:15 PM   #765
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A positive first drug building-block:
Remdesivir, the NIH's Dr. Anthony Fauci says there's proof the drug can block the coronavirus.

I didn't know that Dr Fauci was one the medical leaders in the years of HIV/AIDS. He said this drug reminded him of the early steps forward in fighting HIV back then.
It cut hospital stays from 15 to 11 days. It eases some symptoms. They broke the test, and offered the medicine to the patients who had been receiving the pleceboo. They don't know yet who'll will benefit the most. So part of next steps they'll be testing/monitoring for.
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Old 04-29-2020, 10:47 PM   #766
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I feel better now that Trump unleashed Operation Warp Speed
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Old 04-30-2020, 12:10 AM   #767
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When sports first come back it will likely be with quarantined teams. Nobody will be allowed in or out. It also won't start up until at least June. Biz Ops and Basketball/Hockey Ops won't cross paths for a while other than virtually.

There's a chance NHL and NBA punt on the end of this season strictly based on timing - but they're going to do everything in their power to have some sort of a playoff for each league. The linchpin is testing. Are there enough to test without looking like complete dicks for taking so many tests?

Things would have to take a serious turn for the worst for MLB to cancel - and if NFL, NBA and NHL aren't running in the fall? Then we have much bigger issues than whether or not sports are running.
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Would also like to note that the NHL and NBA and NFL and MLB have the capital and resources to be able to test their players on a regular basis. There’s a reason we started hearing about all those NBA players testing positive... they had the ability to test them.

The bigger challenge I see with sports is trying to work with the players associations and the respective CBAs to handle how players get paid. Without butts in seats, there’s less money to go around.
but all the tests in the world don't stop someone from getting infected.

whether there are fans around or not, somebody is going to have to bring food to these people, and take out their garbage, and wash their sweaty towels. there's no way you can completely isolate every single person involved with a sports team. especially not big teams like the NHL and NFL have.

what happens when someone tests positive in these quarantined sports teams? they've probably already passed it on to someone else in the locker room.

i don't think we have any sports back for good before a vaccine. i really hope i'm horribly wrong on this. i just don't see how it can be done now that it looks like one infection doesn't confer immunity.
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Old 04-30-2020, 03:07 AM   #768
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International leisure travel is a total write off for 2020 as well. The airline industry and airports don’t expect to return to anything resembling 2019 #s for 5 years and are doing their forecasts and business plans accordingly.
With only about ten years delay, Berlin's new major airport finally received the green light to commence business this October!

On the upside for them, wih pre-Corona passenger numbers the airport's capacity was already too small and they'd have had to build an extension terminal. I guess they now have a little more time for that.

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https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...nds-lost-games

Lots of folks however are, and Ticketmaster/Live Nation (I occasionally see folks defend Ticketmaster saying they don't have the money, the promoter does, they fail to understand in the vast majority of cases the concert's promoter is Live Nation, who is Ticketmaster, they are the same corporation) should be allowing refunds. This BS that an event is merely postponed so you have to wait for the announcement of new dates is borderline illegal. Once an event has been deemed not to happen on its intended date, the ticket buyer is supposed to have the option of a refund or can choose to hold the tickets for a rescheduled date.
Live Nation seems really despicable. Only a few weeks ago, when it was clear that this summer, probably this year, will not get back to normal and when all festivals and other major events to be held in Germany had already been cancelled, Live Nation insisted it will pull off Rock am Ring/Rock im Park, some of the biggest rock festivals. They said they would develop a concept to ensure safety? WTF? At a festival? How?
We've got tickets to see Guns n' Roses in Hamburg in early June. Everything is cancelled until end of June, and I'm pretty sure they'll also announce the cancellation of July and August events soon. But the Guns n' Roses concert? Still scheduled, and you can still buy tickets, as if nothing ever happened.


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No Arizona plan like the one that had been rumored. They actually said Trump didn't like that plan, you'd think he would have much bigger things to worry about.
The free businesses of NBA, NHL etc. have to please Dear Leader?

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My question would be related to insurance policies these teams must have on players - they would almost certainly be voided by returning to competitive play (even without an audience).
I was talking about this with friends because the German Bundesliga is hell-bent on resuming in May so they can end the season by end of June (as Headache said, they are dependent on money from TV broadcasts, and each tranche is tied to a certain number of matchdays having been played, plus player's contracts end June 30th), but as employers they also have a fiduciary duty (hope that's the right word) for the health and well-being of their employees. So putting the players on the field carries an avoidable risk of either a player or another employee catching the virus and maybe even develop a severe case of the disease. Now, as concerns the players they have a very good chance of getting through the illness like they'd process a cold. Yet, sometimes, even healthy young people develop a severe case, so it's not impossible. And after all that's known, severe cases most likely are left with long-term damage. Admittedly, it's very hypothetical and probabilities are rather low, yet I wonder what would happen if a player had to end their career because they contracted the virus on the road, got a bad case of it and were left with an impaired lung. Well, only half wonder: The player would try to become a coach, and maybe they'd seek damages, but revenue from the broadcast will outpay any restitution anyway.
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Old 04-30-2020, 05:25 AM   #769
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but all the tests in the world don't stop someone from getting infected.

whether there are fans around or not, somebody is going to have to bring food to these people, and take out their garbage, and wash their sweaty towels. there's no way you can completely isolate every single person involved with a sports team. especially not big teams like the NHL and NFL have.

what happens when someone tests positive in these quarantined sports teams? they've probably already passed it on to someone else in the locker room.

i don't think we have any sports back for good before a vaccine. i really hope i'm horribly wrong on this. i just don't see how it can be done now that it looks like one infection doesn't confer immunity.
I know everyone keeps pointing to the vaccine as the end all solution to this issue - but a vaccine could be months away, it could be decades away, or it could never happen. Obviously the hope is that a vaccine is developed soon - but it might not be, and there's a good chance that we're going to have to come out of this a as a society without a vaccine. A treatment is more important than the vaccine right now.

Anyways... different conversation I guess... Back to this one...

You can do all of the things you said and do them rather easily. All of these teams have equipment managers and chefs that handle this. They have training staff and medical doctors.

Now the argument is, of course, not all of these people will want to quarantine themselves without their families. True. That doesn't have to be an issue, though.

First - sticking with the NBA - not everyone needs to go. Not every person on the equipment team travels to road games as it is - so it would just be an extended road trip.

Second - teams will be able to pool resources. You're not going to need to send all of the individual broadcast teams, beat writers, PR folks, etc. You can cull the herd by a significant number there. There are plenty of single trainers and team chefs to cover for those who don't want to leave their families.

You also don't NEED to have a dozen coaches per team like teams have now - specifically for short term quarantines in one or two locations. Same goes for scouts, player personnel folks, and shit, GMs. They don't need to be there.

For the NBA you're now down to maybe 30 people per team x 3 teams. That's 900 people.

You'll need refs and people at the table. You'll need security. You'll need a skeleton tv crew - but you don't need actual announcers in building. The Olympics, smaller college sports, the WNBA? They've been doing remote broadcasting for years - where the play by play comes from a studio and isn't in person.

So we're talking 1,000 to 1,200 people.

The MGM Grand and Aria have around 14,000 combined rooms - and MGM has 7 other properties on The Strip. They own or operate three arenas on the strip.

Disney has 30,000 hotel rooms and have a multi purpose sports complex.

The only thing that's holding this up is testing.

The NFL? Sure - bigger problem. But as I said - of we're still locked up like this in the fall football is the least of our worries. There won't be an economy left.
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Old 04-30-2020, 07:24 AM   #770
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Los Angeles is offering free testing to all residents. I wish other cities could start offering that too. And towns eventually.

It's scary that our federal govt does not seem to value testing.
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Old 04-30-2020, 07:56 AM   #771
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I know everyone keeps pointing to the vaccine as the end all solution to this issue - but a vaccine could be months away, it could be decades away, or it could never happen. Obviously the hope is that a vaccine is developed soon - but it might not be, and there's a good chance that we're going to have to come out of this a as a society without a vaccine. A treatment is more important than the vaccine right now.

Anyways... different conversation I guess... Back to this one...

You can do all of the things you said and do them rather easily. All of these teams have equipment managers and chefs that handle this. They have training staff and medical doctors.

Now the argument is, of course, not all of these people will want to quarantine themselves without their families. True. That doesn't have to be an issue, though.

First - sticking with the NBA - not everyone needs to go. Not every person on the equipment team travels to road games as it is - so it would just be an extended road trip.

Second - teams will be able to pool resources. You're not going to need to send all of the individual broadcast teams, beat writers, PR folks, etc. You can cull the herd by a significant number there. There are plenty of single trainers and team chefs to cover for those who don't want to leave their families.

You also don't NEED to have a dozen coaches per team like teams have now - specifically for short term quarantines in one or two locations. Same goes for scouts, player personnel folks, and shit, GMs. They don't need to be there.

For the NBA you're now down to maybe 30 people per team x 3 teams. That's 900 people.

You'll need refs and people at the table. You'll need security. You'll need a skeleton tv crew - but you don't need actual announcers in building. The Olympics, smaller college sports, the WNBA? They've been doing remote broadcasting for years - where the play by play comes from a studio and isn't in person.

So we're talking 1,000 to 1,200 people.

The MGM Grand and Aria have around 14,000 combined rooms - and MGM has 7 other properties on The Strip. They own or operate three arenas on the strip.

Disney has 30,000 hotel rooms and have a multi purpose sports complex.

The only thing that's holding this up is testing.

The NFL? Sure - bigger problem. But as I said - of we're still locked up like this in the fall football is the least of our worries. There won't be an economy left.


Under any other administration i feel like we could get something to work out. Under Trump, everything dies a horrible death.

I do wonder about sports. Say NFL does go forward and Tom Brady tests positive 4 weeks in. Does that mean he sits out the next two weeks till he’s clear , like an injury ?

Do players say fuck it and expose themselves to the virus before the season starts knowing it buys them some immunity time ?

Headache is correct tho. We cannot wait for a vaccine. We need a treatment to develop soon. Society cannot stay locked up or therell be nothing left for jobs anywhere.

Without proper testing and tracing tho, we are left with fending this virus off on our own.

That may cause more chaos than shutting down long term since we can’t run the economy if we’re all sick
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Old 04-30-2020, 08:00 AM   #772
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I do wonder about sports. Say NFL does go forward and Tom Brady tests positive 4 weeks in. Does that mean he sits out the next two weeks till he’s clear , like an injury ?

Do players say fuck it and expose themselves to the virus before the season starts knowing it buys them some immunity time ?

I'll say again - if there is still no viable treatment for this virus by October - the impact on professional sports is the least of our concerns.
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Old 04-30-2020, 08:29 AM   #773
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Barring an absolute disaster in manufacture or distribution, I don't see any signs in the literature or current trials suggesting a widespread, effective treatment by the fall is unrealistic or even unlikely. Vaccines are a very different matter and face enormous barriers, as they should.

Then again, this is 2020, a banner year for Murphy's Law.
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Old 04-30-2020, 08:41 AM   #774
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Barring an absolute disaster in manufacture or distribution, I don't see any signs in the literature or current trials suggesting a widespread, effective treatment by the fall is unrealistic or even unlikely. Vaccines are a very different matter and face enormous barriers, as they should.

Then again, this is 2020, a banner year for Murphy's Law.
Exactly.

Anything can go wrong - and in 2020 anything is a regular occurrence - but the entire focus of the world's medical community is focused on this and this alone. We'll have a treatment. We may already have one.
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Old 04-30-2020, 09:03 AM   #775
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Old 04-30-2020, 12:05 PM   #776
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I'll say again - if there is still no viable treatment for this virus by October - the impact on professional sports is the least of our concerns.


Yeah this was my mindset... if this virus isn’t treatable in any way whatsoever this year... bigger problems on our hands.
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Old 04-30-2020, 12:57 PM   #777
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Yes, the vaccine will not be available until 2021 (at the earliest). I am also concerned with what they will push out as the first vaccine - it's absolutely critical that it works because if it ends up being 70% effective, the anti-vaxx movement will grow, more people will refuse to take the second or third, or whatever version.

Yes, anti-virals will be available before then, both because we already have candidates for testing and because this is a relatively advanced field of research as is. However, I doubt that by this fall we will have some sort of magic drug. We may have some drugs that have limited effectiveness in some people, we may have a cocktail, we will more likely have hundreds of compounds still under testing. Could we miraculously stumble on something akin to penicillin? Sure, but is that the likely outcome by this fall? I would be really surprised. And that's not to even mention that even if we find a miracle drug, the notion that you can scale up production to cover 6 billion people in short order is just bonkers. Even if you start with the high risk groups, it is still an effort of unprecedented scale. And then we come to the cost issue - pharmaceutical companies will immediately look to cash in, but we have not solved our economic woes if people in the developed world have access to the drug but people in India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Phillippines, etc do not because we are inextricably tied to them through our global supply chains.

What we need to push for just as strongly is the development and production of rapid results tests, akin to pregnancy tests or blood glucose meters that can easily, quickly and cheaply be administered.

The responsible thing is for our governments and businesses to prepare as if there won't be an effective treatment. This means identifying all people who can continue to work from home indefinitely. Most government departments and ministries are massive bureaucracies that not only do not need to be physically present in the office, but in fact are probably far less efficient in the office - holding way too many meetings, having way too many people unnecessarily attend meetings and so on. And it's not dissimilar in the private sector. A very significant % of the work force can stay home and work and not impact the economy at all. This will obviously be difficult, particularly if parents are home with kids and I can tell you that I'm at the brink of losing my sanity already. I work from dawn until I go to bed, my 2-year-old has decided that she will scream for 2 hours before nap or bedtime and act like she is rabid and the 4-year-old's home schooling requires that you sit with him until he is done each task. However, we have to prepare for this possibility.

Then spend the next several months preparing to outfit workplaces where people do need to be present in person - healthcare (including ancillary services like dentists, optometrists, physiotherapists, veterinarians), manufacturing, warehouses/transportation, construction, retail not including malls, food and food distribution and so on - to implement strong physical distancing measures. This will mean retrofitting places to separate people by plexiglass, shifting to more shift work in order to reduce the # of people in enclosed spaces at any given time, having breaks and lunches in a staggered manner to achieve the same, ability to test temperature and rapid results tests available 24/7 and a very strict and comprehensive illness policy where people are not coming to work sick because they have no sick days or can't afford to take one or whatever.
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Old 04-30-2020, 01:10 PM   #778
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Mother says Mikey didn't know about wearing a mask:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...?ocid=msedgdhp
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Old 04-30-2020, 01:34 PM   #779
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Mother says Mikey didn't know about wearing a mask:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...?ocid=msedgdhp
Oh, sure.
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Old 04-30-2020, 01:36 PM   #780
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The people who can stay home and continue to work are, for the most part, not the ones without a job (yet).

The people who make their incomes off of these office professionals... waiters, baristas, bartenders, convenience store workers, janitorial services, maintenance, fitness, mass transit workers, car repair, delivery, etc... who are out of a job, and who will remain out of a job if we continue to keep everyone home once it's not actually necessary to stay home any longer.

So while it's cool for those of us, myself included, to just say "oh, well, we can just continue to work from home indefinitely"? This does nothing to help the jobs of people who are reliant upon people going to work. And there are more of them then there are office workers.
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