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Old 04-21-2020, 05:40 PM   #541
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The head of the CDC says a second wave this winter would likely be even worse.
WHO representatives are saying the same thing. There's no scientific modeling behind what they're saying though, just references to the Spanish flu being worse on the second go-around 100 years ago. I'm guessing it's less a projection than a strategy to get people to take things seriously. That's fair enough, I suppose, considering how the public has been acting lately.
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Old 04-21-2020, 05:51 PM   #542
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Old 04-21-2020, 06:17 PM   #543
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WHO representatives are saying the same thing. There's no scientific modeling behind what they're saying though, just references to the Spanish flu being worse on the second go-around 100 years ago. I'm guessing it's less a projection than a strategy to get people to take things seriously. That's fair enough, I suppose, considering how the public has been acting lately.
If there's no scientific modeling behind it then it's just speculation. I'm all for facing the reality of the current situation, I just don't see how statements like his are helpful. Unless like you say it can get some people to take things seriously.

I've heard the term "panic porn" used and it does apply in some instances. Of course CNN reported his comments as breaking news. CNN is panic porn these days.
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Old 04-21-2020, 06:21 PM   #544
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Lol, his pants were falling down too. Tampa Bay will love him. He does have a good heart and he does lots of charity work with kids.
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Old 04-21-2020, 06:26 PM   #545
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https://twitter.com/CDonnick3/status...04597732286464
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Old 04-21-2020, 06:36 PM   #546
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If there's no scientific modeling behind it then it's just speculation. I'm all for facing the reality of the current situation, I just don't see how statements like his are helpful. Unless like you say it can get some people to take things seriously.

I've heard the term "panic porn" used and it does apply in some instances. Of course CNN reported his comments as breaking news. CNN is panic porn these days.
As someone who resorted to calling the suicide hotline last month because the "reality of the situation" appeared so overwhelmingly bleak, I do think the experts we should place our trust in have an obligation to be objective and limit idle speculation.

If you're in a position of authority, maybe avoid saying "life could be 100 times worse in a few months, but then again it might not, it all depends," as if blissfully unaware that only the first ten words of the sentence will be reported.
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Old 04-21-2020, 07:21 PM   #547
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If there's no scientific modeling behind it then it's just speculation. I'm all for facing the reality of the current situation, I just don't see how statements like his are helpful. Unless like you say it can get some people to take things seriously..
The only thing that I have heard is this persistent weather speculation, which probably does have some merit, but to what extent, we don't know. The pandemic didn't really get bad in Europe until late Feb/early March and in North America closer to mid-March. Realistically speaking, seasonal respiratory viruses, including influenza last roughly from December to end of April. Meaning that IF this virus is similar in seasonality to the flu, we got very lucky that it hit us at the tail end of the season. Realistically, only about 6 weeks were left. So that would mean that this fall we're susceptible to potentially 5 months of a full season and it's easy enough to see how it could quickly get worse. But we still don't know what the full impact of weather is in any event.

The other thing that is not really scientific is the compliance rate with a second, third, fourth lockdown. You are seeing these morons all around America who can't handle a few weeks without getting a haircut, now imagine if you are locking them down again, then opening, then again...eventually people will take the view that this is ridiculous and they will refuse to comply. And that's when you could see numbers pop.
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Old 04-21-2020, 07:26 PM   #548
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The only thing that I have heard is this persistent weather speculation, which probably does have some merit, but to what extent, we don't know. The pandemic didn't really get bad in Europe until late Feb/early March and in North America closer to mid-March. Realistically speaking, seasonal respiratory viruses, including influenza last roughly from December to end of April. Meaning that IF this virus is similar in seasonality to the flu, we got very lucky that it hit us at the tail end of the season. Realistically, only about 6 weeks were left. So that would mean that this fall we're susceptible to potentially 5 months of a full season and it's easy enough to see how it could quickly get worse. But we still don't know what the full impact of weather is in any event.



The other thing that is not really scientific is the compliance rate with a second, third, fourth lockdown. You are seeing these morons all around America who can't handle a few weeks without getting a haircut, now imagine if you are locking them down again, then opening, then again...eventually people will take the view that this is ridiculous and they will refuse to comply. And that's when you could see numbers pop.


Your latter point is why a race to a treatment beating out a vaccine is the only endgame here.
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Old 04-21-2020, 07:47 PM   #549
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The only thing that I have heard is this persistent weather speculation, which probably does have some merit, but to what extent, we don't know. The pandemic didn't really get bad in Europe until late Feb/early March and in North America closer to mid-March. Realistically speaking, seasonal respiratory viruses, including influenza last roughly from December to end of April. Meaning that IF this virus is similar in seasonality to the flu, we got very lucky that it hit us at the tail end of the season. Realistically, only about 6 weeks were left. So that would mean that this fall we're susceptible to potentially 5 months of a full season and it's easy enough to see how it could quickly get worse. But we still don't know what the full impact of weather is in any event.



The other thing that is not really scientific is the compliance rate with a second, third, fourth lockdown. You are seeing these morons all around America who can't handle a few weeks without getting a haircut, now imagine if you are locking them down again, then opening, then again...eventually people will take the view that this is ridiculous and they will refuse to comply. And that's when you could see numbers pop.
I don't agree with the people who are out protesting in any way - but I'd caution against being so callous with your description of them. People are out of work with no foreseeable way out - and for those in more rural or exurban settings - aka the Trump base - they aren't seeing the kind of debilitating illness that those in urban centers are.

It's not cause they can't get a hair cut.

And yes, I know one stupid protester had a sign saying she wants a haircut.
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Old 04-21-2020, 08:02 PM   #550
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As someone who resorted to calling the suicide hotline last month because the "reality of the situation" appeared so overwhelmingly bleak, I do think the experts we should place our trust in have an obligation to be objective and limit idle speculation.

If you're in a position of authority, maybe avoid saying "life could be 100 times worse in a few months, but then again it might not, it all depends," as if blissfully unaware that only the first ten words of the sentence will be reported.
Just want to tell you that I've called it many times. Please try not to think of it as resorting, you're doing a very good thing by knowing when you need some help and seeking it out. And I don't understand your specific troubles because they are yours, but believe me I do understand what it's like in general . Please reach out here if you feel comfortable doing that. I know you said you live with anxiety, I do too and I have for a long time now.
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Old 04-21-2020, 08:10 PM   #551
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It's not cause they can't get a hair cut.

And yes, I know one stupid protester had a sign saying she wants a haircut.
I think the people protesting are exactly the haircut types. Not a single one of the ones portrayed or interviewed in the protests seemed like a thoughtful person who was concerned about feeding their families or making their mortgage payments. They were basically lunatics.

The people who are thoughtfully concerned are not the ones at protests.
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Old 04-21-2020, 08:20 PM   #552
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As someone who resorted to calling the suicide hotline last month because the "reality of the situation" appeared so overwhelmingly bleak, I do think the experts we should place our trust in have an obligation to be objective and limit idle speculation.

If you're in a position of authority, maybe avoid saying "life could be 100 times worse in a few months, but then again it might not, it all depends," as if blissfully unaware that only the first ten words of the sentence will be reported.
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Just want to tell you that I've called it many times. Please try not to think of it as resorting, you're doing a very good thing by knowing when you need some help and seeking it out. And I don't understand your specific troubles because they are yours, but believe me I do understand what it's like in general . Please reach out here if you feel comfortable doing that. I know you said you live with anxiety, I do too and I have for a long time now.
you guys are both awesome
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Old 04-21-2020, 08:34 PM   #553
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Jules is definitely trying to facilitate a trade to TB (Tom Brady) or his release.
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Old 04-21-2020, 08:49 PM   #554
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Agreed, and many of us here are happy to lend an ear if ever needed.
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Old 04-21-2020, 09:03 PM   #555
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I think the people protesting are exactly the haircut types. Not a single one of the ones portrayed or interviewed in the protests seemed like a thoughtful person who was concerned about feeding their families or making their mortgage payments. They were basically lunatics.



The people who are thoughtfully concerned are not the ones at protests.
I wasn't aware that losing one's income required you to be "thoughtful."
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Old 04-21-2020, 09:19 PM   #556
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I wasn't aware that losing one's income required you to be "thoughtful."
Oh give me a break, it's as if you're being purposely obstinate.

Many people - millions, in fact - have lost income or are worried about losing their income this week or next month. Not just in the US but the rest of the world.

Many of them work in industries that frankly will either not come back for a very long time or may never come back the same way. I know of several - an uncle who is a commercial pilot, a friend who is a procurement manager with a huge airline, a number of people in the oil and gas industry - from field workers who have already been laid off due to project suspensions to corporate types.

These are not the people who are driving around with "Jesus is my vaccine" on their trucks, braying about haircuts, Bill Gates and insane 5G theories and what have you.

Read up on who is organizing these protests and who is attending them (spoiler alert: we've seen this before).

I have no issue with the bulk of humanity discussing how concerned we all are about everything from our health, to our kids' educations to our jobs to our pensions and so on. When I say "thoughtful" - that's what I mean. Not the lunatic fringe who is at the protests. Those people are there for political and other reasons.
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Old 04-21-2020, 09:48 PM   #557
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Okay.

The protests can, at the same time, be unnecessary, bat shit crazy, political, dangerous... and not being because they want to get their fucking hair cut.
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Old 04-21-2020, 09:56 PM   #558
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Okay.

The protests can, at the same time, be unnecessary, bat shit crazy, political, dangerous... and not being because they want to get their fucking hair cut.


We shouldn’t overestimate the Flu Klux Klan.

Their numbers are small, and they are funded by the DeVos folks. The news media’s real bias is for drama.

Polling on this issue shows overwhelming support for continuing lockdowns and public safety in general.

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But as of right now, that doesn’t appear to be true at all. Instead, Americans still seem onboard with social distancing and much more fearful about the health risks of opening up the country too soon than the economic risk of a continued shutdown. The costs of both have been awful — 31,000 dead and counting, 22 million jobs lost — but the public is first and foremost preoccupied with the public health crisis.

The Pew Research Center asked the question directly in a nearly 5,000-person survey conducted from April 7 to 12: Are you more worried about your state government lifting its restrictions on public activities too quickly or not quickly enough? By a 2-to-1 margin, Americans said that they were more worried about rapidly ramping down social distancing.

https://www.vox.com/coronavirus-covi...distancing-end


And this is too good not to share:

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Old 04-21-2020, 10:00 PM   #559
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I don't want to sound like I'm defending the protests or the protesters one bit. I also don't want to see us go down the basket of deplorables road once more.
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Old 04-21-2020, 10:05 PM   #560
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I don't want to sound like I'm defending the protests or the protesters one bit. I also don't want to see us go down the basket of deplorables road once more.


Her biggest mistake was apologizing.

Anyways. Tired of national polls. 60 percent of Americans means 100% of California plus New York City plus DC/Boston/Chicago/Philadelphia. Those protestors are not a small force.
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