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Old 09-02-2016, 12:36 PM   #21
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My biggest concern is that because a direct landfall isn't forecast for the NYC area that people will take this lightly, when the current forecast... where this thing just sits for three days over the gulf stream, spinning and strengthening, would be far worse than if it just plowed through as a mild tropical storm.

Really hoping these forecasts are wrong.
My favorite and least favorite working experience was on a program for the Weather Channel on Hurricanes. There were several episodes that had me crying at work, over how preventable so many losses were had people taken the threat more seriously :\
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Old 09-02-2016, 05:36 PM   #22
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My favorite and least favorite working experience was on a program for the Weather Channel on Hurricanes. There were several episodes that had me crying at work, over how preventable so many losses were had people taken the threat more seriously :\

In modern times we became so accustomed to big Hurricanes taking 20-40 lives max. That prevailing mindset got people and government into trouble when Katrina hit when we lost 1,800 people.

Update on Hermine track seems to put it 80 miles off Cape May for several days as a Category 1. Eventually the process of sucking up the warm water at the surface will cause colder water from below to replace it. By day 3 will drop in intensity without the heat fuel and will then become extra-tropical meaning that it will suck in cold air from PA and Western NY causing to lose its Tropical status. Still dangerous even at that point with tidal surge continuing.


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Old 09-04-2016, 12:09 PM   #23
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Hewson- looks like you will get more of an onshore push of water than I previously estimated.


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Old 09-04-2016, 12:19 PM   #24
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Old 09-04-2016, 01:06 PM   #25
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Great news. It gets kicked out east. Bullet dodged


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Old 09-05-2016, 12:42 PM   #26
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Hewson- looks like you will get more of an onshore push of water than I previously estimated.


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Haven't seen a drop of rain as yet, some clouds today and a bit of wind but that's it.
We need the damn rain.
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Old 09-05-2016, 03:40 PM   #27
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Hermine finally making her presence felt a bit here. Wind has kicked up considerably the past hour. Just went down to Humarock Beach and the surf is pretty wild.
Little bit of rain so far, not much.
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Old 09-06-2016, 11:49 PM   #28
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Here's our flood zone map...

And this was Sandy



Thankfully we're on a high floor, but if the waters do come in again we just have to hope that our management company didn't go cheap on the fortifications that were supposed to protect against this kind of thing if it were to happen again.

There's no immediate danger where we'd have to evacuate during the storm due to rising waters or anything like that... it's more the prospect of the power to the building being knocked out and having to be replaced again, which took months last time.
Damn, that is pretty bad. Are you in LIC? I'm in Astoria, but we're on high-enough ground that we missed the flooding for Sandy. Of course, at the time, I was writing for a local Queens paper, so instead I spent the first few part of the storm taking photos of the Cross Island Parkway getting flooded.
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Old 09-07-2016, 06:25 AM   #29
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Yea we're in LIC
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Old 09-13-2016, 12:45 AM   #30
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Old 09-14-2016, 11:44 PM   #31
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2 things about the chart:

1. When Boston was under a mile of ice wasn't 19500 BCE, it was 2015. I remember it well.

B. Love the Stonehenge depiction.
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Old 09-15-2016, 12:20 PM   #32
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Old 10-06-2016, 07:58 PM   #33
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Matthew is quite a storm for October. If the track holds it just running parallel to coastline from Fort Lauderdale to Charleston could be one of the costliest disasters in US history. The northern onshore flow with the eye within 20 miles of land will a lawnmower of storm surge for hundreds of miles across 4 states. Instead of 3-4 beach communities seeing devastation with a direct landfall you could see upwards of 500 towns and cities taking a similar beating.

The kicker is once it is done it weakens and loops all the way around for a 2nd time. Curious to see if it would re-strengthen.

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Old 10-06-2016, 08:10 PM   #34
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Yeah this is literally "the perfect storm" in terms of its trajectory, wouldn't ya say? To shear the coastline but stay over water, only to loop back out far enough, come back to warm water, and smack the state...

Communication with back home has gone dark, so I'm under the assumption that all family/friends have lost power at this point.
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Old 10-06-2016, 08:13 PM   #35
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Truly scary hearing about what's going on with this storm. Hope everyone here living in that area/who has family and friends living there stays safe.
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Old 10-06-2016, 08:16 PM   #36
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Yeah the curvature matching the coast is too perfect. We should hope it makes landfall because it will rapidly weaken. If the course keeps, it will be an amazing historical anomaly.

Georgia never gets hit, because it is geographically in the bite of two protruding landmasses. Florida and NC. Don't think Savannah has taken a major hit in over 100 years.

Side note: Katrina came ashore with 135 mph hour winds making it a borderline category 3-4 (the shear momentum of its former self caused the huge surge nonetheless)

Matthew could hold at 140 mph winds all the way to Jacksonville with Gulf Stream water temps 84-88 degrees.

EDIT: Looks like the threshold for category 4 has been lowered to 130 mph. I always remembered it as 134 mph in the past.
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Old 10-06-2016, 08:38 PM   #37
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After having experienced Frances/Jeanne and then Wilma the year following, I feel as though Florida is well protected in terms of human life. And that's one positive to take away, at least.

I remember after Wilma, expecting a legitimate death toll. I remember thinking, I bet some people from school will be dead (I was 14 at the time).

Surprisingly, I believe only 3 people in Florida died from that storm. And Wilma was absolutely brutal. To be honest I can't recall which was actually more powerful as it went overhead (we had the eye of Wilma, and practically the eye of Frances and Jeanne (within 20 miles away from us).

So, again, I think(hope) Andrew was the lesson that taught Florida forever.
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Old 10-06-2016, 08:38 PM   #38
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My family outside of Orlando don't usually worry too much - a lot of rain, some wind, but they're a bit worried with this one. Especially knowing it might turn around and make a second pass at Florida.

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Old 10-06-2016, 08:57 PM   #39
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My family outside of Orlando don't usually worry too much - a lot of rain, some wind, but they're a bit worried with this one. Especially knowing it might turn around and make a second pass at Florida.

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Orlando is where a fair amount of costal people will have retreated to. It'll be fine, I wouldn't worry too much.
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Old 10-06-2016, 09:00 PM   #40
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Waffle Houses are closing, so you know it's serious.

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