US Politics XXXVII: hiiiii Kevin, I’m your biggest fan!

[BEAL]

Republicans have been given every opportunity to drop Trump, and they can’t or won’t do it.

They need his base to win, but they want to still appeal to independents and what’s left of the moderate republican (they’re either independent now or under the Democrat tent).

Trump is going to be the nominee, whether it’s with one or four charges against him. Even if he’s sitting in a jail cell. That’s how warped the party is, and slightly our own system for allowing it haha.

All the trials are going to take years, so he’s still got the out of getting into the WH.

Now do I think he wins in 2024, not without some extreme shenanigans and bullshit. The States that he lost close, they’re all run by a D Governor….but our system allows for bullshit so it would still be a risk.

What is more likely to happen is further polarization, violence, and overall disgust / apathy in a country that can’t really take anymore.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

sorry. he's toast.

it isn't a coincidence that the fox news machine is going full steam on desantis today - the (actual) day the expected indictment is to come down.

look who's on the cover of the New York Post? who's got the big interview making previews today? it's ron, not don.

and what is ron doing?

cracking jokes at trump's expense.

trump will not be the republican nominee.

ron desantis will be.


the issue for the democrats then becomes whether or not they think biden's whole thing will play against someone significantly younger and not as obviously brain mushed.

 

[clerks]

Republicans have been given every opportunity to drop Trump, and they can’t or won’t do it.

They need his base to win, but they want to still appeal to independents and what’s left of the moderate republican (they’re either independent now or under the Democrat tent).

Trump is going to be the nominee, whether it’s with one or four charges against him. Even if he’s sitting in a jail cell. That’s how warped the party is, and slightly our own system for allowing it haha.

All the trials are going to take years, so he’s still got the out of getting into the WH.

Now do I think he wins in 2024, not without some extreme shenanigans and bullshit. The States that he lost close, they’re all run by a D Governor….but our system allows for bullshit so it would still be a risk.

What is more likely to happen is further polarization, violence, and overall disgust / apathy in a country that can’t really take anymore.

At least someone else here gets me.

 

[clerks]

Also if you hear DeShithead speak, he has a muppet voice. A Patrick Mahomes voice. And voice matters when running for president.

 

[DeVaul]

Also if you hear DeShithead speak, he has a muppet voice. A Patrick Mahomes voice. And voice matters when running for president.

Trump could probably crush him from prison

 

[Irvine511]

Tiny D is intensely unlikeable, and comes off like a bully. If spend your day thinking about ways to own the libs, he certainly has some appeal and I can see why people would want him as the nominee. The sense I go from my brief time in the panhandle was that they were generally happy with his COVID policies — they wanted to remain open since so much of the economy is tourism dependent, and he then became the face of safety resistance as the lockdowns wore on and people lost their minds. And the FL Dems are basically nonexistent.

 

[mikal]

sorry. he's toast.

it isn't a coincidence that the fox news machine is going full steam on desantis today - the (actual) day the expected indictment is to come down.

look who's on the cover of the New York Post? who's got the big interview making previews today? it's ron, not don.

and what is ron doing?

cracking jokes at trump's expense.

trump will not be the republican nominee.

ron desantis will be.


the issue for the democrats then becomes whether or not they think biden's whole thing will play against someone significantly younger and not as obviously brain mushed.

Yep, any thought that he's going to be the nominee isn't using logic, but using the spoon fed doomsday narrative that MSNBC and CNN have been pushing for the last year.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

here's the number one reason why trump won't be the nominee... money.

the money will flow behind desantis. fox has already begun propping him up.

trump won't be able to spend on his campaign because he's going to need every penny of his fundraising grift towards his legal defense.

he's about to be indicted in New York, possibly as early as tonight.

he faces a $250 million dollar fine in New York State in a civil trial that begins in October - which would also restrict the Trump Organization from operating as a business entity in New York State... a business that, by the way, is in terrible shape and is bleeding money.

his civil rape trial is continuing.

and oh, by the way, there's also Jack Smith and Georgia (although the republicans in Georgia are doing their best to overturn it).

McCarthy is a spineless weasel - but he'll cave eventually. He's already lost McConnell.

he's done. the "he needs the base" line is bullshit. he would have lost the primaries in 2016 if the republicans would have been able to get out of their own way (woah oh oh, ohhhhh). he never topped the mid 30s until it was too late to do anything about it. the republican money won't let that happen again.

everyone is focused on Trump beating DeSantis 42 to 36 in the last polling. they're focused on the wrong thing. it's trump 42, someone else 58. yes - in a head to head trump is currently ahead 51 to 49 - but give it time. once it's clear that the money won't be with them - the other candidates will all prop up desantis in the same way they did biden.

the legal issues will continue to build.

desantis will continue to laugh at trump and talk about his success (i.e. while trump was losing all over the country in 2022, desantis swept to a landslide victory in florida and took over all parts of the state legislature). he has that in his pocket. he actually keeps winning, while trump keeps losing over and over again.

and ultimately trump will have to be out in public again - and everyone will be reminded of what a mush brained invalid he is. he makes biden look downright young and energetic in comparison. trump's a low energy, mind wandering blob who can barely read.

 

[mikal]

here's the number one reason why trump won't be the nominee... money.

the money will flow behind desantis. fox has already begun propping him up.

trump won't be able to spend on his campaign because he's going to need every penny of his fundraising grift towards his legal defense.

he's about to be indicted in New York, possibly as early as tonight.

he faces a $250 million dollar fine in New York State in a civil trial that begins in October - which would also restrict the Trump Organization from operating as a business entity in New York State... a business that, by the way, is in terrible shape and is bleeding money.

his civil rape trial is continuing.

and oh, by the way, there's also Jack Smith and Georgia (although the republicans in Georgia are doing their best to overturn it).

McCarthy is a spineless weasel - but he'll cave eventually. He's already lost McConnell.

he's done. the "he needs the base" line is bullshit. he would have lost the primaries in 2016 if the republicans would have been able to get out of their own way (woah oh oh, ohhhhh). he never topped the mid 30s until it was too late to do anything about it. the republican money won't let that happen again.

everyone is focused on Trump beating DeSantis 42 to 36 in the last polling. they're focused on the wrong thing. it's trump 42, someone else 58. yes - in a head to head trump is currently ahead 51 to 49 - but give it time.

the legal issues will continue to build.

desantis will continue to laugh at trump and talk about his success (i.e. while trump was losing all over the country in 2022, desantis swept to a landslide victory in florida and took over all parts of the state legislature). he has that in his pocket. he actually keeps winning, while trump keeps losing over and over again.

and ultimately trump will have to be out in public again - and everyone will be reminded of what a mush brained invalid he is. he makes biden look downright young and energetic in comparison. trump's a low energy, mind wandering blob who can barely read.

Yep! And really, our focus needs to be more on showing the general public how shitty DeSantis really is. Otherwise, he's our next President.

 

[DeVaul]

Best case scenario: Ronnie D wins nom and Trump splits the party, Biden wins

Worst case scenario: R’s fall in line behind Ronnie D, including those who defected from Trump to Biden in 2020. Biden is older, his VP is a near non-entity and moreover in some cases a detriment.

I do think Trump can and will continue to damage DeSantis no matter what. But if the “protest for me” rallies are any indication, his support may be falling off even amongst the typical MAGA. He will maintain his core of the absolutely batshit, though.

 

[mikal]

Best case scenario: Ronnie D wins nom and Trump splits the party, Biden wins

Worst case scenario: R’s fall in line behind Ronnie D, including those who defected from Trump to Biden in 2020. Biden is older, his VP is a near non-entity and moreover in some cases a detriment.

I do think Trump can and will continue to damage DeSantis no matter what. But if the “protest for me” rallies are any indication, his support may be falling off even amongst the typical MAGA. He will maintain his core of the absolutely batshit, though.

Yep, this is what we need to hope for. Criminal trials take a while and Trump will of course be out on bail, so if he runs as an independent and gets even a sliver of his crazy base, he could cut into DeSantis' votes.

 

[Irvine511]

Given that the only thing they would keep him out of jail is winning in 2024 (or at least being the nominee — “they’ve jailed the opposition! I’m American Navalny!” — Trump will use the threat of a third party run to blackmail the GOP.

 

[BEAL]

Ron's polling has dropped every since Trump started going after him (lightly).

It's Trump's to lose, and we'll see what happens. A lot of time between now and 2024

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_032123_2/

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

he's not even officially in the race yet.

when he announces he'll see an automatic bump - and then once that calms down we'll see where we really are.

 

[mikal]

Also, expect a bump for Orange after he's arrested because his idiot fan base will be energized, but overall, that is going to crush him with moderates and independents.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Also, expect a bump for Orange after he's arrested because his idiot fan base will be energized, but overall, that is going to crush him with moderates and independents.

it will - and the money knows this.

 

[phanan]

It should work out perfectly in the end. Trump extremists will stay with him to the end, which slices off potential votes for DeSantis. Biden should actually roll in 2024.

I’m more concerned about 2028.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

even if trump doesn't run third party, a decent amount of the first time trump voters - which he did get both times - could simply just not turn out

the wrinkle to all of this is the economy. if it truly tanks, all bets are off for 2024.

glad i'm trying to buy a house right now.

 

[mikal]

even if trump doesn't run third party, a decent amount of the first time trump voters - which he did get both times - could simply just not turn out

the wrinkle to all of this is the economy. if it truly tanks, all bets are off for 2024.

glad i'm trying to buy a house right now.

I was so happy to overpay for one last year. [emoji1787]

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

we keep telling ourselves "the interest rate is temporary, the interest rate is temporary..."

 

[DeVaul]

Moving sucks. Buying a house sucks. Good luck!

 

[Hewson]

we keep telling ourselves "the interest rate is temporary, the interest rate is temporary..."

Refinancing is a pain in the ass to boot, but certainly a necessary evil in the future if you buy now.

 

[mikal]

Refinancing is a pain in the ass to boot, but certainly a necessary evil in the future if you buy now.

Yep. I got an amazing rate for where the market was. The rates literally increased by 2% a week after I locked my rate down. So I'm going to be waiting a while before I refinance.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

we have a good rate on the place we have now - bought it in late 2019 and was always supposed to be temporary. and hey, it doesn't matter that it's on the smaller side because nobody is ever home anyways!

three months later covid hit. that we're still alive is a miracle.

alas - we've significantly outgrown the place.

the suburbs await.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

oh... and yea

https://twitter.com/costareports/status/1638628449412587520

dude's toast

 

[BEAL]

I don't really care who the GQP nominee is, I just don't want anyone from that party (as is) anywhere near the executive branch.

We're already setback for years on the Judicial, and Congress always ebbs and flows.

Considering we have maybe a few years left to try to curb the climate disaster, it's imperative that Democrats continue to hold some power to do something!

 

[DeVaul]

oh... and yea

https://twitter.com/costareports/status/1638628449412587520

dude's toast

I’m not popping open the champagne until after the sentencing.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I’m not popping open the champagne until after the sentencing.

which one?

 

[DeVaul]

which one?

Any. I could use a drink.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

https://twitter.com/JimRosicaFL/status/1638875698092969987

The David? More like The Wokeid amirite? Michelangelo was a groomer!