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Old 04-08-2017, 09:51 AM   #501
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Old 04-08-2017, 11:29 AM   #502
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Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase View Post
Oh. No? We can agree that most Stein or Johnson voters above their normal baseline would otherwise vote Democratic, yea?
I don't think that's true of Johnson voters. Every Libertarian I've ever met (and I've met quite a few of them for reasons I won't go into here) primarily want tax cuts and unrestricted business policies. They are much more likely to lean Republican than Democrat IMO.
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Old 04-08-2017, 12:21 PM   #503
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Oh. No? We can agree that most Stein or Johnson voters above their normal baseline would otherwise vote Democratic, yea?
No, we can't agree on that at all. Stein voters should be blue, 100%, yes. Johnson voters would normally be majority ashamed red voters (probably 80-20) who refuse to vote for the strange social policy of the right. In this election, I could see how maybe it's 50-50, at best. I've met some people who are left leaning libertarian-esque. In fact, the ideology more accurately aligns with the left. But the voter base absolutely does not.

I'm just thinking of some examples here. My roommate for the last two years was a Republican. He was a Florida Gary Johnson vote this year. My Michiganese friend has Republican parents. I've been to his house in Michigan. Met his parents. His dad is a radio show host for a conservative radio channel. He voted Trump. His wife voted Johnson, because she couldn't stomach Trump. My brother-in-law and his whole family are Republicans through and through. Their house was divided this election cycle, Trump-Johnson.

These are just some examples. Not enough to paint a picture of the whole nation. But, I can't think of anyone who was a Democrat voting Libertarian. I can't think of them because the primary purpose for voting Libertarian, should you not actually align with those views, is because you can't find a candidate on the right who is socially acceptable.

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Hmm...



Michigan 2012 - 3rd party candidates accounted for 1% of vote

Michigan 2016 - 3rd party candidates accounted for 6% of vote.

Trump wins state by .3%



Wisconsin 2012 - 3rd party candidates account for 1% of vote

Wisconsin 2016 - 3rd party candidates account for 5.3% of vote

Trump wins state by 1%



Pennsylvania 2012 - 3rd party candidates account for 1.5% of vote

Pennsylvania 2016 - 3rd party candidates account for 3.6% of vote

Trump wins state by 1.2%
Ignoring the fact that Gary Johnson supporters are 50-50, at absolute best (which probably isn't even true), the bottom line is voters, Democrats in specific, failed to show up.


Wisconsin

Wisconsin Total, 2012: 3,068,000
Wisconsin dem, 2012: 1,621,000
Wisconsin 3rd party, 2012: 40,000

Wisconsin Total, 2016: 2,976,000
Wisconsin dem, 2016: 1,382,000
Wisconsin 3rd party, 2016: 100,000

Change in voter turnout: -3%
Dem voters lost: 239,000
3rd party voters gained: 60,000

3% of the Wisconsin voting age population is ~130,000 voters that didn't show up versus the last election. You're shocked at the 60,000 voters that shifted to 3rd parties. Just as a scenario, if all 100,000 voters who went third party voted Democrat, while Clinton would have won, a whopping 139,000 democrat voters are still missing from 2012. Either that, or they voted for Trump. 139,000 is over two times greater than the amount of voters who shifted for a third party. Conclusion? Far more Democrat votes simply stayed home or went Trump than the amount who opted to vote 3rd party. And again, that's the ideal case assuming that every single third party voter was drawn from the Clinton camp. Your theory that 3rd party voters shifted this state's election more non-voters is bad, and the 3rd party stockpile of votes conveniently fills the gap and is a scapegoat argument.


Michigan

Michigan Total, 2012: 4,731,000
Michigan dem, 2012: 2,565,000
Michigan 3rd party, 2012: 51,000

Michigan Total, 2016: 4,799,000
Michigan dem, 2016: 2,269,000
Michigan 3rd party, 2016: 251,000

Change in voter turnout: N/A, estimated to be roughly +/- 0% and around 63-64% overall turnout
Dem voters lost: 296,000
3rd party voters gained: 200,000

Gary Johnson wasn't even on the ballot in 2012. The Republicans gained some 160,000 votes between these two elections, whereas the Democrats lost nearly twice that. Sure, if 'some' third party voters went to the Clinton camp instead of voting for a 3rd party candidate, Clinton would have won. We again can agree on that oversimplification. But when you actually take into consideration that at most you can only split the Gary Johnson camp, to roughly 50-50 red and blue, you're left with some ~196,000 voters that stayed home or voted for Trump, while some 51,000 Jill Stein voters should be ashamed at themselves for not even being the size of the gap in this particular election. Again, conclusion here? Yes, on paper, third party voters represent the gap in volume of votes. In reality, the amount of voters who went blue in 2012 drastically decreased.

In fact, had Michigan's third party voters been distributed evenly across their respective political ideologies, and Jill Stein's voters thrown the election to Clinton... the gap would be roughly 10,000-20,000 votes. That leaves another 96,000 missing votes, or between 5 to 10 times more blue votes that stayed home or voted red. So, these voters had far more of a share in the result than third party voters.

Pennsylvania is a totally different story. I don't know why I even got so into this, but I hardly wish to re-dissect Pennsylvania. There was a surge in angry red voters, in pair with the same story as Wisconsin and Michigan. If you look into the numbers there, it's easy to say that either Dem voters stayed home, or they abandoned ship for Trump. Probably the latter.
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Old 04-08-2017, 12:21 PM   #504
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Yeah the Libertarians I know tend to vote conservative in the alternative.

Green voters are more of an enigma. The Green platform is actually quite conservative fiscally but liberal socially. My guess is a lot of them wouldn't vote at all.
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Old 04-08-2017, 12:23 PM   #505
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Yeah, I've always viewed libertarians as Republicans by another name.
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Old 04-08-2017, 02:08 PM   #506
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Ok so fair enough... I might not go as high on the percentages as 80/20, but yes, libertarians are fiscally conservative.
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Old 04-08-2017, 02:45 PM   #507
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Trump Part VIII

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Originally Posted by anitram View Post
Yeah the Libertarians I know tend to vote conservative in the alternative.

I think it's worth noting as well that, although theoretical libertarianism has both right-leaning (economics) and left-leaning (social issues) components, US libertarianism and the Libertarian Party here tends to emphasize the right-leaning part and be closer to the GOP. There was actually a bit of a battle in the Libertarian Party last year, I believe, because Johnson was basically seen as a pot-smoking Republican by some.

That's part of why, despite some of my libertarian-leaning characteristics (I'm pretty centrist on economics, maybe a tad right of center), I'd have a hard time voting for a Libertarian over a Democrat in pretty much any election (not just presidential, where the choice to choose Clinton to try to beat the buffoon was obvious).
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Old 04-08-2017, 03:07 PM   #508
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I would agree with that, and add that their liberal democrat counterparts in the U.K. are nothing alike.
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Old 04-08-2017, 07:05 PM   #509
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Airbase in Syria reopened less than 24 hours after bombings.

That's $60 million dollars well spent right there.

We apparently destroyed a cafeteria, some planes that were already broken, and a classroom.

The runways were left in tact though, as they're easy to fix, or so our dope in chief said on Twitter
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Old 04-08-2017, 07:21 PM   #510
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If Trump had only a tenth of the knowledge that Clinton demonstrates here, I'd have little doubts about the use of strategic strikes against Assad. Things being as they are, I'm torn.

https://youtu.be/aI0iLIwfa2w?t=41m5s
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Old 04-08-2017, 07:22 PM   #511
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I would agree with that, and add that their liberal democrat counterparts in the U.K. are nothing alike.


Sad that the Lib Dems are on life support in the UK. I would be one if I were British.
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Old 04-08-2017, 07:46 PM   #512
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Richard Spencer and his neo Nazis are protesting the Syria attacks outside the White House tonight. There goes Trump's base.
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Old 04-09-2017, 05:21 AM   #513
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I feel like Johnson himself said that republicans who are sick of Donald can vote for him. he didnt mention democrats who are sick of Hillary.
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Old 04-09-2017, 06:41 AM   #514
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Sad that the Lib Dems are on life support in the UK. I would be one if I were British.
Maybe their fate would be brighter if they hadn't entered government with the Tories. Hard to respect that unless you're a Tory yourself.
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Old 04-09-2017, 08:28 AM   #515
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Trump Part VIII

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Maybe their fate would be brighter if they hadn't entered government with the Tories. Hard to respect that unless you're a Tory yourself.


Where you and I will inevitably disagree - I had no real issue with the Cameron government, nor Nick Clegg's part in it, until the Tories won a majority outright by means of selling out to the far-right.
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Old 04-09-2017, 01:39 PM   #516
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So I see mr turnip is trigger happy!

https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-naval-...020546735.html

While I understand that something needs to be done about North Korea, something tells me that the strike on Syria and potential strikes on NK are more used as a distraction of turnip's legal problems. I think he is just all for show and nothing else. Whatever it takes to distract the public of the fact that he is a dbag! And what better distraction than start potential wars with China and Russia?
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Old 04-09-2017, 05:43 PM   #517
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We need more evidence that it isn't just a Chinese hoax.

Quote:
Five tiny Pacific islands have disappeared due to rising seas and erosion

[...]

The submerged islands were part of the Solomon Islands, an archipelago that over the last two decades has seen annual sea levels rise as much as 10mm (0.4in) according to research published in the May issue of the online journal Environmental Research Letters.

[...]

The study is the first that scientifically “confirms the numerous anecdotal accounts from across the Pacific of the dramatic impacts of climate change on coastlines and people,” the researchers wrote in a separate commentary on an academic website.
https://www.theguardian.com/environm...climate-change

Both the Turnbull and the Trump administration need to pay more attention to this kind of research.
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Old 04-09-2017, 09:48 PM   #518
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As much as I'd love to rehash the election for the zillionth time, it appears there is a civil war going on in the administration. The white nationalists are angry about Syria and calling for Kushner to be fired. Check out the #FireKushner topic to see the anti-Semitism at work. The establishment are trending #FireBannon. Frankly I'm team #Firethemall.
What did the mall ever do to you?
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Old 04-09-2017, 10:52 PM   #519
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Ha ha ha
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Old 04-09-2017, 11:22 PM   #520
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What did the mall ever do to you?
those malls have Macy's or Nordstrom, clearly.
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