What’s your take on things?
I’m freaking out too.
I am trying to come to terms with this, perhaps in the way most Americans have tried after 2016 (although this wasn't as sudden, you could see the train crash coming from a mile away). As an expat, it's particularly depressing to have to deal with this twice in two years, once in my home country and once in my currently adopted country.
Here are some collected and probably not very coherent thoughts, but that hopefully can provide some additional context for people who are not as familiar with the country:
- Brazilian society has historically had a unique mix of economic liberalism (in the American sense of the word, i.e. supporting a welfare state) and social conservatism, including among its educated elite. Such social conservatism often manifests itself in how racism, misogyny and homophobia remain deeply entrenched. Women's/gay rights have advanced more slowly than in most other democracies.
- Partly (but far from entirely) linked to the above, the role of religion in Brazilian society has also been relevant for many years. Whereas it used to be the Catholic church's prominence that would explain something link the lack of abortion rights, there has been a major shift towards evangelical religions over the last 2 decades, which I think have further reinforced conservatism in various parts of the country.
- Brazil is one of the most violent places in the world. 63,880 people were murdered in Brazil in 2017, a trend that has deteriorated in the last few years. This has only emboldened those "law and order"/"blue lives matter" voices in the conservative movement (Bolsonaro's famous remarks that "a good criminal is a dead criminal" resonate in this context). Worth noting that over 5,000 people were killed by the police.
- The left and center-left in Brazil have self-destructed over the last 10 years. It used to be the case post-military dictatorship that Brazil did not have viable right-wing parties. All presidential elections since 1994 featured the Workers' Party (PT) against the Social Democratic Party (PSDB). PT loved to frame the latter as representing "neoliberal" interests, but they were center-left on the vast majority of issues (except perhaps on some aspects of economic policy).
- The undermining of democratic institutions did not start with Bolsonaro's rise (or Dilma Roussef's impeachment, as many in the PT will argue), but with some of the governing practices that PT adopted during its 13 years in power. Particularly vicious for democracy was the use of the "powers of the state" not simply for nefarious personal enrichment, but for keeping the party in power (for example, providing using state-run companies as a source of illegal campaign contributions to the party fund, amidst a myriad of other crimes).
- PT's narrative when its various corruption schemes came to fore was to say that corruption was not exclusively done by PT, but by all political parties in Brazil. They were correct, of course. Corruption is endemic in the country. But when the narrative from the party in power is that all political parties are equally bad, it is not a surprise that the response from voters would be to elect someone who portrays himself as an "outsider".
- Now, as is usually the case with fascists and neo-fascists, Bolsonaro was able to rely on the list of atrocious thing he had said or done (mostly said, he was a mediocre congressman for many years without managing to put forward a single piece of legislation) in order to portray himself as the outsider who is coming to fix all the nation's problems.
- Of course, given how fragmented the Brazilian political system really is, the President's power are quite diminished. And to deliver on any major legislation, he will have to feed the rent-seeking parties that occupy a large portion of Congress. So an outsider he will not be, and he may find himself very soon engaging on the kind of corrupt practices his predecessors did. As Trump has shown, those who denounce the swamp are often the first ones to use it for their benefit (notably, Bolsonaro also has children that are politically active - and awful in their own right).
- Lastly: Trump has also shown that elections have consequences, and if you said terrible things you are likely to do terrible things as President. Which is what I expect from Bolsonaro in Brazil. Minorities, poor people and democracy-loving people in Brazil should be very afraid.
Sorry, this is way too long.