womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Are those numbers strong enough to make up for votes that will be lost to GOP cheating?
The short answer is yes. But nothing is certain. At this point I think the only thing that could derail these numbers is if Russia or others gained direct access to voting machine software and changed votes. Which of course can't be ruled out, but is still a remote possibility.
So that said. I am one that is starting to think that the numbers we are seeing, nationally vs. state polls, early voting participation, voting enthusiasm, and the overall feeling in the air right now (i know - very scientific lol) is pointing to Biden actually outperforming state polling, and probably almost hitting or slightly underperforming the current national numbers.
One explanation is that state polling was off in 2016, but national polling was pretty spot on in the end. State pollsters may be overcompensating a bit, as to not make the same mistakes as last time. But looking at it overall, the standard shift towards Biden, that I talked about probably a month ago was about 6 points. Now, it's looking more like 7 points. That was looking at midwest swing states, an acknowledging that the swing was slightly less in places like NC and FL.
So while there is this gap in state vs. national numbers, If you were to take Hillary's national vote win (almost 3%) and add that 7 point shift to Biden, you get -- just about 10%.
And his national average at the moment is +10.5. So it makes some sense.
Especially if you account for the fact that some of the larger shifts are in deep red states. I know here in TN, where Trump won by like 26 points in 2016, is now probably going to be closer to 12-14 points. Kansas, Trump won by 20 points, and now is standing around 7-8 points ahead. Alaska, Trump won by 15 points, and right now is at around +5. Same story in South Carolina, Trump +15 in 2016, now Trump +5 or 6.
So national numbers I think are reflecting bluer states getting bluer, and deep red states showing 10-12 point shifts, while swing states are swinging closer to 5-7 points.
So where does that leave us. We hope that no true vote manipulation happens. We realize that long voting lines and broken machines, and challenges on what dates mail ins can be received or counted are just par for the course.
We also realize that the whole energy of this election is different. It is a different world on social media this time around. 2016 was pure Clinton hate and left/Dem infighting. I mean, it was really bad. No one was overly enthusiastic, everyone was throwing around "lesser of two evils" Clintons fav/unfavs were in the toilet. In fact Clinton's number for Honesty and trustworthiness were worse than Trump's. It was a shit show. Clinton didn't do the work in the midwest, Trump was a new candidate that was talking about shaking up Washington after a two term Dem president, people were looking for something different, and Clinton was the farthest thing from it, The Comey letter came out a little over a week from election day. It was just a trainwreck waiting to happen.
This time it is opposite. People are looking for normalcy and stability and going back to something they knew was safe and competent. Trump has to run on his record, and his number with women, college educated, white voters, seniors, and even military are off a cliff.
The enthusiasm to remove him is SO strong. People are angry, they are tired, they are sick of his shit. And this whole shoving a nominee through, instead of doing Covid relief is only going to make it worse.
Right now over 25% of all registered voters in Kansas have voted. And we are 3 weeks out. That is insane. First day early voting has been double or triple of anything we've seen in the past. I think there is more of chance of a landslide victory for Biden than a small win.
I'll post later about election night and what we can make of the results we see coming in.