LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
Cohn > Silver
I’m glad I took the opportunity to shit on Silver the day before the election.
Cohn > Silver
I’m not trying to compare Florida penis with Ohio penis okay?
Nevada, huh? I wonder if they have any tourist locations I could visit to repay them for pushing us over the top.
there's probably an old-timey silver mine somewhere near carson city you could throw a 20 to for a tour.
I’m glad I took the opportunity to shit on Silver the day before the election.
I’m glad I took the opportunity to shit on Silver the day before the election.
Yeah he looked brilliant in 2012 and now he’s been way off the last 2 elections.
On Silver again, despite the numbers, I feel they took great pains to explain the uncertainty in the race and that a 10% chance happens quite often.
Yeah he looked brilliant in 2012 and now he’s been way off the last 2 elections.
Cohn > Silver
1) Say a combination of AZ/NV/PA gets called for Biden. Does Trump formally concede?
2) If Biden wins, does Trump invite him for the traditional White House visit?
3) If Biden wins, does Trump write the usual letter that is left on the Oval Office desk? What does he write/draw?
1) Say a combination of AZ/NV/PA gets called for Biden. Does Trump formally concede?
2) If Biden wins, does Trump invite him for the traditional White House visit?
3) If Biden wins, does Trump write the usual letter that is left on the Oval Office desk? What does he write/draw?
1) Say a combination of AZ/NV/PA gets called for Biden. Does Trump formally concede?
2) If Biden wins, does Trump invite him for the traditional White House visit?
3) If Biden wins, does Trump write the usual letter that is left on the Oval Office desk? What does he write/draw?
1. No
2. No
3. Person, woman, man, camera, TV (in orange crayon)
Am I wrong in thinking that the point of those models is not to predict a specific outcome but rather to present a range of probable outcomes? In that sense it seems that 538 has done just fine.
It seems to me that people (not anyone here necessarily) will see a 90% victory probability and assume that means a blow-out win when in fact it means the alternative still has a decent likelihood. Just like when basketball fans get surprised when Steph Curry misses a free throw even though there's a decent chance he will miss any given free throw he takes.
I think when it shakes out, the biggest things that pollsters will have to address is why were many swing state polls spot on (AZ, MN, NC, GA) within the margins (FL, maybe PA) but WI, MI, IA, OH nearly outside the margin?
What other types of questions could pollsters ask that might tell them how a person would vote beyond what they tell you.
And bottom line is, when you do have a margin of error where one candidate can be 4 points lower and the other could be 4 points higher, people will rage about them, but there answer can always be - we were within the MOE.
I do wonder if Biden's internals were way off too or not. If so, it may really change the game of how campaigns work going forward.
Just anyone tonight idc who
It's not a problem just in the US, in Australia the polls were wildly wrong in our federal election last year, and I think the Brexit polls were wrong too.