2016 US Presidential Election Thread - VIII

[LuckyNumber7]

I'll counter all of your infighting by saying that ganging up on an infighter is worse than infighting itself.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I'm considering changing my mind on Trump. I mean if he can turn an 8,000 seat amphitheater into 30,000 people without as much as putting a shovel in the ground, what can't he do?

[Axver]

I await his loaves and fishes.

[Irvine511]

Does anyone seriously think he has any chance? I mean this as a serious question. Under what scenarios could he get to 270 EV? Barring a national catastrophe like a terrorist attack with mass death that could drive voters into the arms of an authoritarian, what states could he flip? I guess one answer would be New York, but does that seem possible?

[BEAL]

I think it would take a terrorist attack to give Trump a legit chance.

If he was going against Bernie, I really don't know.

If Trump starts cooling his racist, sexist, any other crap.....he might do a lil better but won't flip Florida or Ohio


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[LuckyNumber7]

You guys should stop rationalizing Trump.

[deep]

Originally Posted by Irvine511

Does anyone seriously think he has any chance? I mean this as a serious question. Under what scenarios could he get to 270 EV? Barring a national catastrophe like a terrorist attack with mass death that could drive voters into the arms of an authoritarian, what states could he flip? I guess one answer would be New York, but does that seem possible?

Are you sure he can not get FL?

[LuckyNumber7]

People like Clinton in Florida. She doesn't face any issue here. It's getting bluer and bluer, and I don't see that changing anytime soon. There's a real north/south divide, but south and central Florida have booming populations of transplant residents and Floridian echo boomers of said transplants. Despite being a swing state, the numbers are a little more telling.

Back in 2000, I'm pretty sure Orange County was 60/40 Bush. It moved to a close 50/50 Obama in 2008, and then a 60/40 Obama in 2012. I'm not 100% on these numbers, but the point is that even though the results might seem close, the trend is large urban population growth (which equates to progressivism). I really don't see competition here.

[deep]

yeah, I know you are the Rubio guy in Florida

but I think you are wrong, everybody has been underestimating Trump this whole time, nobody thought he would do as well as he did in most of the primaries he has been winning, they call him the biggest story this election cycle, the real story is how lousy Hillary is doing, a third rate senator like Sanders giving her a race shows what a weaken candidate she is, she is a joke. She was really something in 2008, amazing what she has become, it would be sad, if she did not deserve it.

[deep]

I would not be surprised if a true lame-duck (post election) Obama gives Hillary a blanket pardon, like Ford gave Nixon.

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by deep

Are you sure he can not get FL?

I'm not sure of anything. That's why I was asking.

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by deep

yeah, I know you are the Rubio guy in Florida



but I think you are wrong, everybody has been underestimating Trump this whole time, nobody thought he would do as well as he did in most of the primaries he has been winning, they call him the biggest story this election cycle, the real story is how lousy Hillary is doing, a third rate senator like Sanders giving her a race shows what a weaken candidate she is, she is a joke. She was really something in 2008, amazing what she has become, it would be sad, if she did not deserve it.

I think people underestimated his ability to be the front runner.

There's nothing out of the ordinary about someone being a front runner. Just because he can win his draconic party's primaries doesn't mean he's suddenly going to start undoing states and their voting tendencies.

Nobody gives a shit if Donald Trump is a big story. When you put him up square against the opposite side, especially in Florida, he's going to lose. Sanders didn't give Clinton a run for her money in Florida. She has the backing of the Hispanic community here.

And, I mean, we can all read the narrative and pretend like Clinton is not performing well. But, every time she's been put on the spot, she's performed. Every time Sanders had the opportunity to make Hillary sweat, she shellacked him. Ohio. Florida. Illinois. New York. This race has routinely come close to being close, but never has been truly close. She had to let it be close. Destroying her competition meant alienating her base.

We get it. You're a Trump guy. But there's zero measure as to why Trump would win Florida. Just as there's zero measure as to why he'd win New York. It's a narrative and that's it. Zero reasons to believe he is going to flip either of those states. Certainly a total freaking joke to think he stands a chance in New York.

[deep]

I tell you that Trump rally I attended at the same venue I attended one for Bill Clinton in 1992 was an eye opener. There were 'Gays for Trump' signs along with the Latinos and Blacks for Trumps signs. No it did not look like a DNC convention, but it was not a tea-party crowd either. I think his appeal is much broader than social media would lead one to believe. I find him to the most gay friendly and black friendly GOP candidate of the lot, including Kasich and Bush. Also, if one can get past the desire to have secure boarders, which is not racist but logical he is good for Latino Americans that want better paying jobs. I believe he can get a better portion of the black vote than Romney or McCain because many blacks are are on the losing end of illegal immigration. Not sure he will win on Nov, but I think a surging Trump vs a weakened Hillary is a good race.

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by deep

I tell you that Trump rally I attended at the same venue I attended one for Bill Clinton in 1992 was an eye opener. There were 'Gays for Trump' signs along with the Latinos and Blacks for Trumps signs. No it did not look like a DNC convention, but it was not a tea-party crowd either. I think his appeal is much broader than social media would lead one to believe. I find him to the most gay friendly and black friendly GOP candidate of the lot, including Kasich and Bush. Also, if one can get past the desire to have secure boarders, which is not racist but logical he is good for Latino Americans that want better paying jobs. I believe he can get a better portion of the black vote than Romney or McCain because many blacks are are on the losing end of illegal immigration. Not sure he will win on Nov, but I think a surging Trump vs a weakened Hillary is a good race.

Well, just throwing this out there: his "gay friendliness" doesn't get him anywhere. Just like it doesn't get Kasich anywhere. While that allows some of the LGBT community to vote for them, individuals in the LGBT community tend to expect a champion these days. So, nobody gives a shit if they're "gay friendly." It doesn't get them anything. The only thing that does is stop them from being alienated by 50% of the country for having ass backwards views. For every 1 "gays for Trump" sign you saw, there's probably a couple hundred thousand gay people who absolutely will not vote for Donald Trump.

Need I remind you, dumb people come in all shapes, sizes, genders, ethnicities, political beliefs, etc. Just because someone is gay doesn't guarantee they fail to be either stupid or a hypocrite. You saw an idiot holding a sign. That's not indicative of the gay community rallying behind Trump. It's some guy holding a fucking sign.

I have zero idea what you're talking about with blacks being on the losing end of illegal immigration. They've probably been legal longer than your family has.

Also, I have no idea what you're talking about with Latinos. The damage was done a long time ago. Those communities don't see Trump's rhetoric as about better jobs. They see him as a racist. The numbers don't lie. Women and Latinos, nationally, heavily disfavor Trump, for his rhetoric. They're not going to forget.

[deep]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

We get it. You're a Trump guy. But there's zero measure as to why Trump would win Florida. Just as there's zero measure as to why he'd win New York. It's a narrative and that's it. Zero reasons to believe he is going to flip either of those states. Certainly a total freaking joke to think he stands a chance in New York.

I always want the best candidate in each party to get the nomination

so Hillary, of course

the GOP this time has been a bit of a dilemma, Cruz is about the worst, I tend to be risk averse. Trump is a wild card, a disrupter, as Sanders would be if he got elected. But as I took the time to listen to each of Trumps points, I can do not find any of them to be unreasonable.

Anyone that does not believe the system is totally corrupt and the working stiffs are getting sold out by both sides is not paying attention or is part of the system that wants to live off of others hard work.

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by deep

I always want the best candidate in each party to get the nomination



so Hillary, of course



the GOP this time has been a bit of a dilemma, Cruz is about the worst, I tend to be risk averse. Trump is a wild card, a disrupter, as Sanders would be if he got elected. But as I took the time to listen to each of Trumps points, I can do not find any of them to be unreasonable.



Anyone that does not believe the system is totally corrupt and the working stiffs are getting sold out by both sides is not paying attention or is part of the system that wants to live off of others hard work.

You think a Sanders election is a problem, but you like Trump's corruption rhetoric? Sanders' entire campaign is based upon that corruption rhetoric.

The only difference between those two candidates on that issue is that Sanders has ideas and understands the actual system. Trump just fires out pandering garbage and makes things up as he goes along. A Sanders election is not a problem. It's a Sanders nomination that's a problem (as others have suggested, he's vulnerable/unpredictable). Why do you think Trump is utilizing the "corruption" accusations in his campaign? Because he's a really good guy who cares about the people? Give me a break. He's narcissistic. Like, clinically diagnosable. Narcissistic personality disorder. He's really happy to tell you about how he's so much better than everyone else.

Big note: any piece of racist trash that comes out of Trump's mouth, he believes. Anything that Trump says, even when he changes his views, he believes. That's a textbook case of a narcissist. He believes it solely on the ground that he said it. And if he said it, it must be true. One could argue that this is a major strength and a major flaw at the same time. It makes him infallible to criticism (you can't question him on his core beliefs, because he is his own core belief). However, when it comes down to it, he's going to be eaten alive from the likes of a Vladimir Putin. Play to Trump's ego and court him as a genius and a strong leader, and Putin will reap the benefits.

Kasich is probably the best current candidate for the GOP. Yes, Cruz is the worst. Trump isn't far behind.

[Hewson]

Originally Posted by Irvine511

Does anyone seriously think he has any chance? I mean this as a serious question. ?

Considering how difficult it has been for Hillary to put away Bernie, Trump would have a chance. She's a very unlikeable candidate, and once he starts attacking her anything is possible.

[deep]

Bingo

[BVS]

Originally Posted by deep

I think his appeal is much broader than social media would lead one to believe. I find him to the most gay friendly and black friendly GOP candidate of the lot, including Kasich and Bush.

Right, it's social media's fault.

Sure. But which version of Trump?

Originally Posted by deep

Also, if one can get past the desire to have secure boarders, which is not racist but logical he is good for Latino Americans that want better paying jobs.

Well no one said that is racist, but we all know you're smarter than that.


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[namkcuR]

Originally Posted by Hewson

Considering how difficult it has been for Hillary to put away Bernie, Trump would have a chance. She's a very unlikeable candidate, and once he starts attacking her anything is possible.

It hasn't been difficult for Hillary to put away Bernie. I'm more or less a Bernie guy but I can admit this. She dominated him in the south, she dominated him in Ohio, in Florida, in New York, in nearly every delegate-heavy state she had to win. He won a string of states, more caucuses than primaries, which gave him momentum in the media but not really enough delegates to really close in on her.

She has had a fairly commanding pledged delegate lead since early on with all those SEC states.

Nearly all of the superdelegates have been in her corner.

The overwhelming majority of elected Democratic officials who have endorsed during the primary have endorsed Hillary.

Bernie has filled big venues with tens of thousands, he has a dedicated following, his movement is real and is one I believe in, but let's be real, he's never been able to get close enough to truly threaten Hillary. Only close enough to be a thorn in her side.