tarquinsuperb said:
Could you have predicted all of those things on the 6th of January 2001? No one knows what 2005 holds for U2 or anyone else.
I know it's not time magazine but it looks like they've got another Rolling Stone cover.
With regards to the airplay of the second and third single I think that you are rewriting the history of ATYCLB as I recall both really struggled in the US.
Back in January 2001, you could already predict some lingering interest in the album because of the song and record of the year Grammy nominations Beautiful Day had. Now, Vertigo is nominated in low-profile categories that probably won't get TV airtime (IF they even win) so in this part, ATYCLB shows better staying power.
U2 are always in the Rolling Stone cover anyway when it is new album time - even during POP. The circulation of Rolling Stone is not even close to TIME Magazine. And as you said, the whole world is not North America. TIME Magazine reaches the whole world, Rolling Stone doesn't. Based on TIME Magazine's track record of featuring musical artists, it is virtually improbably for U2 to bag a third cover story. So I think this is a pretty safe assumption.
It is also a safe assumption that there will be no Superbowl performance because they don't really repeat acts, especially if just a few years have passed.
And going even further down the road, the drop is over 70% in North America - but also a 67% sales drop worldwide while other artists are maintaining their sales or even climbing (Green Day for example). So I would say this is quite alarming, and while not indicative of a trend - it could actually be the beginning of a trend.
All the current sales of the album have shown so far is that: (1) Vertigo was a great first single that caught the listener's ear; (2) U2 did a good job marketing the album (iPod TV ads, TV or radio talk show appearances, promo gigs, etc.); (3) fan anticipation for the album was high coming off a hugely successful and accolade-receiving ATYCLB; (4) U2 chose a great time to release the album by not coindiciding with Eminem so they could bag #1 while releasing it near Christmas; and, (5) the initial critic reviews were generally good.
All of those above factors contribute to high initial sales up to the end of the Christmas season. But intial sales are a product of marketing and not content - especially the first week sales. So it will be the post-Christmas era where the "legs" of HTDAAB will truly be tested. By this time, word of mouth of the quality of the rest of the songs of the album will be on the street. The mp3s will be out everywhere (sure it was out before the album was released but only hardcore U2 fans actually could find it and cared for downloading it). By this time, all the others songs would have been heard and a purchase decision will be based on what they have actually heard from their friends' or relatives' cds.
The first post-Christmas week doesn't bode well for U2 with the dramatic drop in sales. The fact that they did not receive key Grammy nominations, unlike Beautiful Day could also be a bad indicator.
So whether or not the album truly has legs remains to be seen. But in the end, I hope it does. Hopefully, U2 will be able to think up novel and creative ways to maintain the albums legs despite these minor setbacks.
Cheers,
J