US Politics XXVIII: But His Laptop From Hell

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So, if we want a little bit more focused, snapshot of where the polling is just this past week, and not including Rasmusssen, Trafalgar or Insider Advantage, this is what we have.

I will list the current 538 avg. in parenthesis, and then the weekly with no crappy polls in the avg.

PA - (5.1) 6.8
MI - (8.1) 8.8
WI - (7.1) 7.6
FL - (2.4) 2.7
AZ - (3.0) 3.6
NC - (2.5) 3.2
 
“So, look, there’s been a lot of discussion about the issues that were needed in the Black community for the last year, but particularly it intensified after the George Floyd situation,” Kushner said. “And, you know, you saw a lot of people that were just virtue signaling.



“They’d go on Instagram and cry or, you know, they’d put a slogan on their jersey or write something on a basketball court,” he continued, appearing to refer to athletes such as those in the NBA and WNBA who made Black Lives Matter activism a centerpiece of their seasons.



Kushner claimed such activism was “doing more to polarize the country than it was to bring people forward.”
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https://youtu.be/yQZSOtzWuyQ
 
anitram said:
Although the polls give me ongoing heartburn, I don't mind them for this reason. The entire Trump supporter cohort is convinced he is going to win by a landslide and that Joe has a small lead like Hillary did, but it's because of shy Trump voters that will overwhelm voting polls next Tuesday. If they are happy believing this, great.
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GOP: the shy trump voter will push us over the line, we have so much more enthusiasm than Sleepy Joe. We're not concerned!

Also GOP: Let's sue Pennsylvania to keep them from counting votes and put one ballot drop box in a county bigger than Rhode Island lolz
 
womanfish said:
So, if we want a little bit more focused, snapshot of where the polling is just this past week, and not including Rasmusssen, Trafalgar or Insider Advantage, this is what we have.

I will list the current 538 avg. in parenthesis, and then the weekly with no crappy polls in the avg.

PA - (5.1) 6.8
MI - (8.1) 8.8
WI - (7.1) 7.6
FL - (2.4) 2.7
AZ - (3.0) 3.6
NC - (2.5) 3.2
Click to expand...



It’s incredibly silly to disregard polls just because they’re right wing biased.

I’m not defending them, and I saw the Trafalgar nonsense, but there’s something to be said if you’re simply choosing to ignore them because you equate their bias with them being garbage.
 
Florida man strikes again

Florida man stole bulldozer, ran down Biden signs

James Blight was charged with grand theft auto and trespassing

By Associated Press

A 26-year-old man has been accused of stealing a bulldozer from a Florida construction site, driving it into a neighborhood and knocking down campaign signs for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, according to authorities and homeowners.

The man took the bulldozer in Haines City on Saturday and repeatedly destroyed Biden signs in full view of people who live in the neighborhood, witnesses said. James Blight was charged with grand theft auto and trespassing, according to the Haines City Police Department.


Former Vice Mayor Adam Burgess lives in the central Florida neighborhood, which he said is predominantly Black. He called it a hate crime.

“This man came onto my property, took the two Joe Biden signs I had in my yard and then came back with a bulldozer to run down my fence,” Burgess told Bay News 9.

Video taken by the news outlet showed the damaged fences. Blight was also accused of bulldozing down a city speed limit sign, among other signs.

Police said Blight claimed he was too drunk at the time to remember what happened. It was not immediately clear whether he has an attorney who could comment on his behalf.
 
His misogyny really has no limits


As Pennsylvania sets a single-day record for virus cases, Trump holds three rallies in the state and Biden makes an appearance there.

As officials in Pennsylvania reported at least 2,492 new coronavirus cases on Monday, the most it has seen in a single day, both President Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. campaigned in the state, which is key to both of their hopes for winning the presidential election.

At his first of three rallies Mr. Trump ripped into Senator Kamala Harris in demeaning and personal terms, saying, “She will not be the first woman president — you can’t let that happen” while mocking the way she laughed during her “60 Minutes” interview on Sunday.

During a high-decibel, scattershot speech in Allentown that lasted well over an hour, Mr. Trump repeatedly targeted Ms. Harris — who is running for vice president, not president — in a heckling performance that mirrored his attacks on Hillary Clinton and other female foils over the years.

The president went on to offer caustic negative appraisals of other prominent women he said had treated him badly — the CBS correspondent Lesley Stahl, NBC’s Savannah Guthrie and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Moments later, he trumpeted his appeal to “suburban women,” despite polls showing him trailing Mr. Biden among suburban women in battleground states by more than 20 percentage points.

“Did anybody see ‘60 Minutes’ last night? Did anybody see it?” said Mr. Trump, who stormed out of his own interview with Ms. Stahl, accusing her of asking tough questions while her program lobbed softballs to Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris.

“It was a total joke of a show,” he added. “Did you see his performance on that show? The only thing almost as bad was Kamala with the laugh, oh, that’s so funny. She kept laughing. I said, ‘Is there something wrong with her, too?’”

Mr. Trump held three rallies in Pennsylvania, and Mr. Biden made a single stop at a voter center in Chester, just over the border from Delaware. He and Vice President Mike Pence were both holding events on the campaign trail, despite the fact that Mr. Trump had the coronavirus earlier this month and there is currently an outbreak in the vice president’s office. At an afternoon rally in Lititz, Pa., the president mocked Mr. Biden for his sparse travel schedule, saying that if he loses, “he should be ashamed of himself because he didn’t work.”

He continued that line of attack on Mr. Biden in Martinsburg. “He said he doesn’t do these kinds of rallies because of Covid,” Mr. Trump told a large crowd gathered at an airport hangar, after throwing red caps into the audience. “No, he doesn’t do them because nobody shows up.”

As the president held the rallies, officials in Pennsylvania reported the new single-day record for virus cases.

Mr. Trump, who faces a widening gender gap, nonetheless defended his standing among women voters — in part, by making a racist appeal based on his opposition to an Obama-era program intended to integrate segregated suburbs.

“I think I’m doing great with suburban women. I am saving the suburbs! I am saving the suburbs. How can I do badly?” he said to wild applause from the crowd arranged on risers outside an Allentown factory, many of them not wearing masks.

“Here is what I know about suburban women,” he added. “First of all, they are great. Love our country. They want to do things. They want to leave their house alone. They don’t want the five-story project next to them or could be higher. They want to leave their house alone. They want security. OK?”

After the cheering died away, Mr. Trump asked the audience, “Am I that bad? Am I that bad?” — to shouts of ‘no!”

Mr. Trump also repeated falsehoods about the ballot-counting process in Pennsylvania and expressed solidarity with groups of supporters who have been showing up at polling sites to videotape people attempting to vote, a practice the state’s attorney general has called voter intimidation.

“We’re watching you very closely, Philadelphia,” he said.

— Glenn Thrush, Annie Karni and Michael Cooper
Click to expand...

Also, nice both sides headline there, NYT. I'm sure Biden's socially distanced stop at a voting center is as risky as Trump's mask-free rallies.
 
womanfish said:
So, if we want a little bit more focused, snapshot of where the polling is just this past week, and not including Rasmusssen, Trafalgar or Insider Advantage, this is what we have.

I will list the current 538 avg. in parenthesis, and then the weekly with no crappy polls in the avg.

PA - (5.1) 6.8
MI - (8.1) 8.8
WI - (7.1) 7.6
FL - (2.4) 2.7
AZ - (3.0) 3.6
NC - (2.5) 3.2
Click to expand...




These are Obama numbers. Obama numbers are big numbers.

I don’t see how Biden is going to win the popular vote by 8+ points or more and then somehow lose all these swing states by less than a point each.
 
Irvine511 said:
These are Obama numbers. Obama numbers are big numbers.

I don’t see how Biden is going to win the popular vote by 8+ points or more and then somehow lose all these swing states by less than a point each.
Click to expand...



Russia + GOP led courts
 
Irvine511 said:
These are Obama numbers. Obama numbers are big numbers.

I don’t see how Biden is going to win the popular vote by 8+ points or more and then somehow lose all these swing states by less than a point each.
Click to expand...

I totally agree. I think his midwest swing state numbers will be about what we are seeing in the polls, or better. He's running 6 points ahead of Clinton nationally. She lost the MI/WI/PA by less than a point. So it makes sense that he is up about 7 or so in these states.
The rest is more uncertain. NC has been back and forth between blue and red, FL is a shit show, and GA, AZ and TX are newly in play.
 
Funny how quickly (I mean 20 years is not that long) it went from “win the election” to “win the election by 3-4 points to guarantee you win the electoral college” to “win by a landslide so that the other party can’t steal the election”. In a few cycles Dems might need to get unanimity to win the presidency.
 
gump said:
Funny how quickly (I mean 20 years is not that long) it went from “win the election” to “win the election by 3-4 points to guarantee you win the electoral college” to “win by a landslide so that the other party can’t steal the election”. In a few cycles Dems might need to get unanimity to win the presidency.
Click to expand...

Republicans now control the US Senate, Presidency, and Supreme Court despite not winning a national election since 2014 and only 1 presidential popular vote since 1988.

But will Joe pack the court!?!?!?!?!?!?!:doh::|
 
LuckyNumber7 said:
We’ve been over this. You misplace your blame sooooo much.

Anyways. Susan Collins: too little too late.
Click to expand...

There really is no shortage of blame to go around.

RBG should have retired earlier. Obama could have done a recess appointment. The Democratic Party could have run on the concept of SCOTUS for decades like the GOP did.

Now they have to pack the court immediately.

But beyond that, the GOP and evangelicals have gotten what they wanted. Roe v Wade will be toast, just a matter of time until the right case comes along. And then you’ll have a whole bunch of states experiencing a massive case of buyers’ remorse.
 
I tend not to be an alarmist, but there is a nonzero chance of total institutional breakdown next week. Not saying it’s likely, but it’s possible, and that is damning in itself.
 
Expanding the court should be the start, not the end. DC statehood should be on the table from day 1 to reduce Republican’s 7-point Senate advantage. Let the GOP threaten to create a West Dakota and East Dakota.
 
gump said:
Expanding the court should be the start, not the end. DC statehood should be on the table from day 1 to reduce Republican’s 7-point Senate advantage. Let the GOP threaten to create a West Dakota and East Dakota.
Click to expand...

Agreed. DC and Puerto Rico statehood, and even then the representation would be tilted conservative.
 
Me thinks the ballot should count based upon postmarking date. Shouldn’t matter when it arrives though. But screw that ballot if you tried to send it in the day of or after the election.
 
Make the landslide so explicit that nothing can be done to cook the numbers. The GOP risked galvanizing the Democratic base to make this confirmation happen, so it's time to do our part.
 
LemonMelon said:
Make the landslide so explicit that nothing can be done to cook the numbers. The GOP risked galvanizing the Democratic base to make this confirmation happen, so it's time to do our part.
Click to expand...



I’m drinking whiskey on a Monday because of this.

I also rage donated.
 
I still say whether we pack the courts or not (and I'm on board with doing so, because fuck the GOP, it's well past time to play our own hardball), if the Democrats win, they should just flat out remove Barrett and put in a new judge. If for no other reason than she was appointed by an impeached president who then went on to infect a crapton of people at the White House because he refused to take any kind of safety precautions. When you pull that kind of shit, you don't deserve to have your picks honored or kept on the bench.

gump said:
His misogyny really has no limits
Click to expand...

The guy really cannot handle women standing up to him, or being strong and independent and speaking their minds. He's so pathetic it's incredible.

Also, regarding a story from the last page, fuck Jared Kushner.
 
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