US Politics XXVIII: But His Laptop From Hell

[womanfish]

Ok, so I'm gonna go balls out here. I know, I know it's a bit much. But I'm going with the thought that this will be a wave election. I know FL is a shitbox that burns us all the time, but I feel like Biden will squeak it out by about a point. I have felt good about GA for a couple months, and while TX is a reach - the state went from dead LAST in voter turnout last cycle, to first place. Something special is happening there, and I think if they hit near that 12 million mark Biden will get it.

Here it is: (up from my map a couple weeks ago that had Biden at 350)

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

This is quite interesting in terms of the adjustments in PA polling this cycle:

[TWEET]1323309442998390787[/TWEET]

I do think there's a very distinct possibility that the polls over corrected and Biden's lead is significantly larger nationwide than what is being shown, but until it happens I'm still assuming the worst. Cause PTSD and all.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I really hope Florida goes for Biden because unlike every other state where everyone says “if ___ goes for Biden, it’s game over” Florida (or Texas lol) is actually legitimately game over if Biden wins it. Except... if Biden wins Florida, it actually blocks Trump from claiming Election Day victory and forces Trump to accept the counting of ballots everywhere else, which won’t end in his favor.

 

[womanfish]

Not surprised, but disappointed that neither Dubya or Jeb! have come out and endorsed Biden.

Think what that could do for both Texas and Florida.

Could be they don't care. Could be they don't want the backlash.

Feels to me this is way too important to just stay on the sidelines.

I don't think it would do a damn thing.

We have been through maybe 50 big things over the past 6 months that have changed the polls by about nothing.

If the largest racial protests in history and a rampaging global pandemic that has killed almost a quarter million people doesn't move people, then I don't think Jeb or W or gonna do it.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

But also I think South Floridians are selfish and greedy retirees and money grubbers from your shithole states that make our state a shithole state and basically we are a collection of the worst characteristics of New York and New England and Trump is a shithole magnet.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

here's a line of people waiting to fix their absentee ballot... not to vote, but to go in and fix issues that they were notified of (missing signatures, etc.)

https://twitter.com/CHueyBurns/status/1323284335798243330

Bucks County, PA.

 

[gump]

I do think there's a very distinct possibility that the polls over corrected and Biden's lead is significantly larger nationwide than what is being shown, but until it happens I'm still assuming the worst. Cause PTSD and all.

Yeah, I agree. I tend to think that the polls can be wrong, but if they are it will probably be for another reason rather than 2016 redux.

 

[Hewson]

Its gonna be ugly

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Its gonna be ugly

You and I share the same dark feels.

Except I genuinely think Biden’s “I’m from Scranton!” bullshit will pay off in PA just enough with the enraged city of Philadelphia to win PA. But elsewhere in the Midwest I think those bonus cookies don’t work.

 

[gump]

Its gonna be ugly

Ban this man for 48 hours, mods.

 

[LemonMelon]

Ban this man for 48 hours, mods.

I dunno, I think it's bad juju if everyone in the room believes the same way. I'll excuse that map as a reverse jinx.

LN7 and I feel exactly the same way about PA. It'll be close, but "I'm from Scranton" + high voter turnout will make up the 40,000 vote difference that Hillary lost by in 2016. I haven't seen a single good argument for why PA would go Trump, just "I'm nervous." Which, well, yeah.

 

[mikal]

Its gonna be ugly

I actually agree with this map but I think Biden will win AZ.

 

[Hewson]

You and I share the same dark feels.

Except I genuinely think Biden’s “I’m from Scranton!” bullshit will pay off in PA just enough with the enraged city of Philadelphia to win PA. But elsewhere in the Midwest I think those bonus cookies don’t work.

I figure Biden will get more votes in PA, but I fully expect many of them will not be counted.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I figure Biden will get more votes in PA, but I fully expect many of them will not be counted.

I genuinely still believe our system won’t let us down regarding votes getting counted.

Call me naive, but I think Trump’s play to the courts just won’t be as civilly maniacal and sinisterly successful as it’s being presented. I’m far more concerned with votes being illegally discarded than I am with votes being discarded through some legal-but-illegitimate court conspiracy.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I actually agree with this map but I think Biden will win AZ.

This is exactly where I am as well.

 

[womanfish]

I dunno, I think it's bad juju if everyone in the room believes the same way. I'll excuse that map as a reverse jinx.

LN7 and I feel exactly the same way about PA. It'll be close, but "I'm from Scranton" + high voter turnout will make up the 40,000 vote difference that Hillary lost by in 2016. I haven't seen a single good argument for why PA would go Trump, just "I'm nervous." Which, well, yeah.

Yeah, it just shows how skewed everyone's thinking is when - Trump may win PA!!! is pretty much the entire news cycle this whole week, and Biden is polling at +5-6. But no one is saying Biden may win SC!!! When Trump is polling at +6.

I think people that are skeptical and scared of a Trump win (which is all of us, but I mean really thinking Trump will pull it off) are not reading the room.
Trump has gained nearly zero new voters over the last 4 years. I think people get spooked by large rallies. But there you have a few thousand people that voted for him last time, and were never not going to vote for him this time, in a city that may have 100k or a couple million people. Rallies mean nothing, except probably turning off even more suburban and college educated voters.

The feeling of the country is one of exhaustion and anger and literally crying out for sanity and normalcy.
You have people waiting in line for 11 hours to cast their vote because they will do anything to be rid of this POS.

So 10 reasons Biden will not lose and also expand the map.

1. changing demographics in general
2. higher youth turnout
3. seniors swinging hard to Biden (most reliable voting block)
4. suburban revolt
5. beyond record turnout
6. Trump at 43.4 vote share in polling avg.
7. Independents / NPA voters swinging hard to Biden
8. A pandemic that Trump has completely botched, with no plan to change it
9. record number of new voters that are going for Biden by almost 20%
10. People tend to vote against the incumbent when favorability is low and right track/wrong track is really bad.

Now.

What about Trump? Can anyone come up with 5? 3? 2?

I have one

1. higher support among latino voters in FL. (Biden still almost matching Clintons Latin support nationwide)

I know PTSD runs deep. I can still feel in my gut how I felt that night. But we are allowed to do well, and we are allowed to be optimistic!

 

[namkcuR]

Yeah, it just shows how skewed everyone's thinking is when - Trump may win PA!!! is pretty much the entire news cycle this whole week, and Biden is polling at +5-6. But no one is saying Biden may win SC!!! When Trump is polling at +6.

I think people that are skeptical and scared of a Trump win (which is all of us, but I mean really thinking Trump will pull it off) are not reading the room.
Trump has gained nearly zero new voters over the last 4 years. I think people get spooked by large rallies. But there you have a few thousand people that voted for him last time, and were never not going to vote for him this time, in a city that may have 100k or a couple million people. Rallies mean nothing, except probably turning off even more suburban and college educated voters.

The feeling of the country is one of exhaustion and anger and literally crying out for sanity and normalcy.
You have people waiting in line for 11 hours to cast their vote because they will do anything to be rid of this POS.

So 10 reasons Biden will not lose and also expand the map.

1. changing demographics in general
2. higher youth turnout
3. seniors swinging hard to Biden (most reliable voting block)
4. suburban revolt
5. beyond record turnout
6. Trump at 43.4 vote share in polling avg.
7. Independents / NPA voters swinging hard to Biden
8. A pandemic that Trump has completely botched, with no plan to change it
9. record number of new voters that are going for Biden by almost 20%
10. People tend to vote against the incumbent when favorability is low and right track/wrong track is really bad.

Now.

What about Trump? Can anyone come up with 5? 3? 2?

I have one

1. higher support among latino voters in FL. Biden still almost matching Clintons Latin support nationwide)

You're talking about vote counts. I'm confident like you are that if all votes are counted in PA, Biden will win. But some of us are terrified that not all of the votes will be counted. That he'll find a way to steal it through the courts.

 

[BEAL]

Isn't PA holding off on counting the mail ballots for days? I'll need to find a link, but i recall reading that the PA GOP purposely had it this way so they can manipulate the narrative if it's close.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I would never ever ever ever rely your #2 reason for a victory on “higher youth turnout” because it just never happens.

 

[mikal]

seniors swinging

Now we’re talking!

 

[gump]

Isn't PA holding off on counting the mail ballots for days? I'll need to find a link, but i recall reading that the PA GOP purposely had it this way so they can manipulate the narrative if it's close.

Yes, they prevented pre-processing of early votes like other states allow for.

 

[womanfish]

Now we’re talking!

Seniors swinging hard

 

[gump]

The needle is making a comeback (sigh).

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/upshot/needle-election-forecast.html

 

[womanfish]

Isn't PA holding off on counting the mail ballots for days? I'll need to find a link, but i recall reading that the PA GOP purposely had it this way so they can manipulate the narrative if it's close.

PA will start counting mail-ins on Wednesday.

I definitely get the fear of votes being tossed out and of course Trump is going to do lawsuits all over the place. But if Biden wins PA by around 300-400k votes (conservatively) there just isn't going to be a lawsuit that can swing that. Yes, if FL is like a 10,000 vote difference, sure, i can see that spelling trouble.

Please remember that ALL states have their own set rules for voting. States have never ever counted all their votes on election night. Trump is doing a great job on brainwashing the whole country into thinking this. It doesn't make it true and doesn't make it cause for legal action with any standing.

 

[womanfish]

98.5 million votes cast...

 

[Hewson]

Now we’re talking!

 

[LemonMelon]

I don't think PA will matter and the hand-wringing will be pointless because AZ and NC's results will undermine any GOP efforts.

 

[phanan]

Not sure why my map isn’t coming up, but I’ve got Biden taking AZ and NC along with the taking back of the blue wall...

 

[Hewson]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/me...how-close-races-pennsylvania-arizona-n1245775

NBC final poll has AZ tied.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

What’s an ominous sign is that we mostly all agree that Trump will win one of Florida or Ohio... and yet those states haven’t been wrong about the winner in god knows how long.