US POLITICS XX: Stuck In a Caucus You Can't Get Out Of
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Ok. I'll bite and list the states he loses and i'll work from West coast (best coast) to East.
Trump Wins:
ID
MT
WY
UT
AZ
CO
TX
OK
KS
NE
SD
ND
MN
IA
MO
AR
LA
MS
AL
GA
FL
TN
KY
WI
IN
MI
OH
WV
VA
NC
SC
PA
AK
I'm questionable on Bernie winning NV, and NM. I could see IL being a toss up too
Bernie won't win the burbs.
So not quite a 40 state prediction, but it'll be a bloodbath.
OP
OP
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Trump Wins:
ID
MT
WY
UT
AZ
CO - Bernie wins - high independent pop. was big on Sanders last time
TX
OK
KS
NE
SD
ND
MN - Bernie wins - Bernie won in 2016 primary 62 to 38. and hillary still won in the general
IA
MO
AR
LA
MS
AL
GA
FL
TN
KY
WI - Bernie is the strongest of the Dems in this state so far. It will be tough though.
IN
MI - Bernie again, popular here. More of a blue state now than WI
OH
WV
VA
NC
SC
PA - Would be close
AK
Definitely an uphill battle. Not what you want when going up against the cult, the money, and the russian assistance of Trump.
A Sanders vs Trump election would be settled in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio.
That's it.
That's it.
namkcuR
ONE love, blood, life
Getting a bit alarmed at this NYT article today regarding superdelegates. Seems like they're ready to take the nomination from Bernie if necessary/at all possible.
This just strikes me as incredibly short-sighted. If Bernie is within shooting distance of the required number of delegates and the superdelegates take it away from him, I fear it will permanently rupture the party.
Sanders' entire base and other leftists will stay home in November and never come back, and will probably actively work against the Democratic Party for years to come.
I don't care if you're a Sanders, Warren, Biden, or Bloomberg supporter, this should be worrying.
They cannot do this. I'm sorry, but I really think they have their heads up their asses if this is what they're thinking.
Also, as an Ohioan, I like my senator Sherrod Brown, but do they really think he'd have a better shot at winning than Bernie?
This just strikes me as incredibly short-sighted. If Bernie is within shooting distance of the required number of delegates and the superdelegates take it away from him, I fear it will permanently rupture the party.
Sanders' entire base and other leftists will stay home in November and never come back, and will probably actively work against the Democratic Party for years to come.
I don't care if you're a Sanders, Warren, Biden, or Bloomberg supporter, this should be worrying.
They cannot do this. I'm sorry, but I really think they have their heads up their asses if this is what they're thinking.
Also, as an Ohioan, I like my senator Sherrod Brown, but do they really think he'd have a better shot at winning than Bernie?
Magnus Maximus
The Fly
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I think you are right about CO and MN. CO has become a lot more crunchy lately as a lot of West Coast Liberals have moved to the Denver area (also jacking up housing process and making it unaffordable to live there) but what a beautiful city, I am blessed to spend a lot of time out there for work. MN has a strong socialist party and old left wing roots, I think Bernie takes it easy.
However- MI, WI, and PA will go trump.
Also I am sick of hearing about national polls, they don't mean crap. Hillary lead Trump in every national poll, yet she lost. Same thing with Sanders. The only polls that matter are state to state and what the EC tallies will be, that's it. Where Sanders wins he will win big, but any vote after 50.1 is a wasted vote in that state. If the Dems want to win, Sanders is not the answer. Honestly Amy K or Old Joe are their only hope. As much as a disagree with J Car politically, there is no better political mind than Carville. You guys better listen to him.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
if biden wins in SC and brings that momentum into super tueday and succeeds, then at the convention he's within a few points of sanders in terms of delegates, and the superdelegates largely vote for biden, then okay. that's a fair win and there isn't much excuse to stay home and not vote in the general.
if sanders goes into the convention with a clear and obvious delegate lead over the rest of the field, and the superdelegates collude to give the nomination to someone else, everyone who voted for sanders is being told that their opinion is meaningless to what the party establishment wants, and many of those sanders voters will stay home on election day justifiably feeling like they have no interest in rewarding the party that blatantly cancelled their first vote. there would be no better way to absolutely guarantee a trump victory than the DNC stealing the nomination from bernie in a scenario like this.
not to mention the very loud and very clear message that would be sending to leftists all across america that the establishment will keep them out of power by any means necessary, and all that would entail from that.
if sanders goes into the convention with a clear and obvious delegate lead over the rest of the field, and the superdelegates collude to give the nomination to someone else, everyone who voted for sanders is being told that their opinion is meaningless to what the party establishment wants, and many of those sanders voters will stay home on election day justifiably feeling like they have no interest in rewarding the party that blatantly cancelled their first vote. there would be no better way to absolutely guarantee a trump victory than the DNC stealing the nomination from bernie in a scenario like this.
not to mention the very loud and very clear message that would be sending to leftists all across america that the establishment will keep them out of power by any means necessary, and all that would entail from that.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
sanders is currently beating trump in two of those states and the other one is a statistical tie.
Magnus Maximus
The Fly
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So was Hillary
and the WI DEM GOV just stepped on it.
It will come down to the economy and Labor union votes in October. That's it nothing else matters. If the economy is strong and unions happy, the working class feels secure they won't take a chance on Sanders, why blow it up, the devil we know, and why risk my 80 to get 20, and finally why make perfect the enemy of good.
Like JC said "it's the economy stupid"
Baring a massive War, or a massive pandemic (CV isn't that yet) I don't see people voting against their wallets. Also can you see Bernie and his coalition of Bernie Bro's trying to lead in an emergency? Oh No-- Biden, Clinton, Amy K, Mayor Pete, even Warren would be much better. In fact that is the one thing EW and I agree on, she would be a better President than Bernie.
I don't really worry about the superdelegates that much.
What I think is more likely is that there isn't a massive separation between Bernie and Candidate #2 (likely Biden), but Bernie is ahead. If Bloomberg manages to hobble his way on massive $ and ends up holding a reasonably large number of delegates though he is in 3rd place, who's to say that he doesn't endorse Biden and recommend that his supporters vote for him? What if Biden has more delegates as a result? There is nobody on the left who can do the same for Bernie because realistically barring some miracle, Warren simply won't be holding that many delegates.
What I think is more likely is that there isn't a massive separation between Bernie and Candidate #2 (likely Biden), but Bernie is ahead. If Bloomberg manages to hobble his way on massive $ and ends up holding a reasonably large number of delegates though he is in 3rd place, who's to say that he doesn't endorse Biden and recommend that his supporters vote for him? What if Biden has more delegates as a result? There is nobody on the left who can do the same for Bernie because realistically barring some miracle, Warren simply won't be holding that many delegates.
deep
Blue Crack Addict
Number of states isn't really that important, Al Gore got credit for 20 States, and lost by one? Electoral vote
Of course I will always believe that he truly got more votes in Florida so with 21 states. He won the election by several electoral votes
after the 2000 election I became obsessed with how we vote and the electoral college,
Of course this would never happen,
if a candidate won I think the 13 largest states by 51% they would get the election, and they can lose all the other states by 80 - 20%
Of course I will always believe that he truly got more votes in Florida so with 21 states. He won the election by several electoral votes
after the 2000 election I became obsessed with how we vote and the electoral college,
Of course this would never happen,
if a candidate won I think the 13 largest states by 51% they would get the election, and they can lose all the other states by 80 - 20%
deep
Blue Crack Addict
This sounds reasonable for people who prefer Bernie not be the candidate.
if I were a Bernie supporter I would say anybody that voted Bloomberg absolutely 100% rejected Biden.
and to have a billionaire buy the election for Biden would be enough to make me sit this out
OP
OP
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
How is that a billionaire buying the election for Biden??
First of all, your statement that those that voted for Bloomberg, 100% reject Biden, is so far off the mark. I have wavered between Biden, Warren and Bloomberg for over a month.
But the debates and primary performance will decide for me. If Biden tanks in SC and I vote for Bloomberg on Super Tuesday, it in NO way means I rejected Biden. Or vice versa.
In fact, i don't 100% reject any of the candidates.
And what we're talking about here is normal primary, nominating process. Every candidate that has gotten delegates, but doesn't make it to the end of the primary will have free-agent delegates at the convention.
If Pete has 50 and Warren has 20 and Amy has 30 and Bloomberg has 250. Then all of those delegates will go with the remaining candidates. They usually follow any "endorsement" made by the ones that got the delegates to begin with.
If that's the case, I would say Biden would be in for a boatload of "free-agent" delegates at the convention.
Or, if Bernie has a commanding lead with delegates, more may go with him. who knows.
I may be wrong here, but that's my understanding. Anyone have more detailed concrete facts on the process?
deep
Blue Crack Addict
I am kind of agnostic on Bernie, but negative on Biden so either option is a bit
I know this isn't the popular opinion in here,
I think Bernie has the best chance of beating Trump, then perhaps Biden and I agree with Elizabeth warren that Bloomberg would be a disaster and cannot get the core of the democratic party and does not deserve them
They literally changed the nominating process to what it is now because of complaints from the Sanders campaign over 2016... sooooo yea, there's that.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
In fairness to those 2016 demands, are superdelegates actually anything more than a removal of the value of the power of the voter?
I think people are a little too focused on the super delegate part of that article by the esteemed Reid Epstein and missing that ALL delegates are free to vote for whomever they want in round 2.
It's not as if we haven't had brokered conventions before. We just haven't had them in a while.
There's also a fairly easy solution - get a majority of delegates.
But if he doesn't have a majority of delegates after round one simply handing it to him would actually be ignoring the fact that the majority of voters didn't want him to be the nominee. So no, it wouldn't be ignoring the will of the voters.
If he's just shy of a majority? Yea, they should probably just make him the nominee to avoid mass chaos. But if he's at like 35-38%? In no way should they hand it to him, and in no way would it be "stealing it from him" if he ultimately doesn't win the nomination.
It's not as if we haven't had brokered conventions before. We just haven't had them in a while.
There's also a fairly easy solution - get a majority of delegates.
But if he doesn't have a majority of delegates after round one simply handing it to him would actually be ignoring the fact that the majority of voters didn't want him to be the nominee. So no, it wouldn't be ignoring the will of the voters.
If he's just shy of a majority? Yea, they should probably just make him the nominee to avoid mass chaos. But if he's at like 35-38%? In no way should they hand it to him, and in no way would it be "stealing it from him" if he ultimately doesn't win the nomination.
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LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
I’m not saying it’s perfect now. Not by any means.
Just, the system before was broken.
Just, the system before was broken.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
And they would. Because they are Democrats. And when this happens in a few months, they’ll change the rules again in 2024.
Whereas if it were Republicans, they would be like “shut the fuck up and do what we say or we’ll primary the fuck out of you and trash your ass on Twitter you pathetic ingrate crybabies.”
And that’s why they win.
Magnus Maximus
The Fly
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- 196
That's way to simplistic, it's a soup your cooking a combination of states. The largest 13 aren't going to Bernie, that's silly.
Lets Just look at the top 6:
California (55),
Texas (38),
New York (29),
Florida (29),
Illinois (20),
Pennsylvania (20)
Those states are split 50/50 between D and R (104 D R 87)
so yes all the states matter- and guess what it doesn't matter if you win 99-1 or 50.01 to 49.99 yiu just need to win, that's why the national polls don't mean crap
OP
OP
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Yeah, I think that we have to take a page from the whole impeachment drama.
"If you're arguing process, you're losing"
So Bernie last time, had no mathematical chance of having the most delegates at the convention. But he continued all the way through, and vowed to fight for a contested convention, saying that he might be able to win over superdelegates and get the nomination. Sanders supporters all shouted - Hell yeah! fight til the end!
Now this time, he's saying, whoever gets to the end with the most delegates wins!
That there shouldn't be a contested convention.
And Sanders supporters are all shouting - Hell yeah! This is democracy after all, the one with the most votes should win.
"If you're arguing process, you're losing"
So Bernie last time, had no mathematical chance of having the most delegates at the convention. But he continued all the way through, and vowed to fight for a contested convention, saying that he might be able to win over superdelegates and get the nomination. Sanders supporters all shouted - Hell yeah! fight til the end!
Now this time, he's saying, whoever gets to the end with the most delegates wins!
That there shouldn't be a contested convention. And Sanders supporters are all shouting - Hell yeah! This is democracy after all, the one with the most votes should win.
OP
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womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Also, if Bernie ends up winning the nomination, will he and Biden sit down and work more moderate policies into the platform and policies of his campaign moving forward like Clinton did with Sanders?
Sorry, I thought you guys needed a good laugh for the day.
Sorry, I thought you guys needed a good laugh for the day.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
Also, if Bernie ends up winning the nomination, will he and Biden sit down and work more moderate policies into the platform and policies of his campaign moving forward like Clinton did with Sanders?
Sorry, I thought you guys needed a good laugh for the day.
if bernie ends up winning the nomination, will biden end up doing 39 rallies in 13 states to campaign for him in the three months leading up to the general election, like sanders did for clinton in 2016? will a single one of these candidates except for warren support him even half that much?
this bs narrative that sanders opposed clinton in an aggressive and mean way and then was a sore loser after the convention needs to die.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
deep
Blue Crack Addict
We'll be hearing a creative double jeopardy defense from Dershowitz any minute now.
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