US Industry Est. 600K - 1 Million 1st week for HTDAAB

[ChangeTheTemperature]

http://www.hitsdailydouble.com/news/newsPage.cgi?news05424


All I can say is that would be quite an accomplishment!

Still holding to my prediction of 675K

CHART PREVIEW:
EMINEM’S ENCORE NO BORE

First Full Week to Surpass New Album’s Opening Weekend, as Destiny’s Child, Lil’ Jon, Clay and Snoop Follow

November 22, 2004

As the tallying of sales reports continues, it still is apparent to even the most mathematically challenged (that means us) that Eminem will be #1 again on this week’s chart.
The latest projections have Mr. Mathers’ Encore (Shady/Aftermath/Interscope) coming in with another 750k-850k for the week, putting him at somewhere around 1.5 million sold in 10 days.

And while most would agree that’s pretty decent showing for someone who’s stayed out of court, jail and the hospital over the last year—and one that puts the top chart slot out of the reach of every other person on the planet, by the way—Columbia’s Destiny’s Child has also made some serious headway, according to reports. The new album, Destiny Fulfilled, has a bead on a 400k week after looking kinda soft a week ago. That’s down slightly from our last report, but still a lock for #2.

Lil’ Jon and the Eastside Boyz’ Crunk Juice (TVT) is also coming on strong, currently looking like it will rise to #3 on the chart based on sales of around 350k. The next-highest debut, which will have to battle Shania Twain and Toby Keith’s second-week numbers for position, should be Snoop Dogg’s R&G: Rhythm & Gangsta (Geffen), which is looking like it’ll log 180k-190k when the counting’s done.

Chingy’s Powerballin’ (Capitol), meanwhile, appears poised to come on the chart with 110k-115k in sales after its first full week in stores.

This week, as we rumble headlong into a turkey-fueled holiday shopping frenzy, is the moment of truth for the U2, as we prepare to see how the band’s alliance with Apple and the many, many, many TV ads that resulted affect sales of the band’s How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb (Interscope). Early estimates vary widely and range from 600k to 1 million for the album’s first week.

Interscope also has Gwen Stefani’s solo debut, Love, Angel, Music, Baby hitting the streets tomorrow. Retail pundits expect the album to see first-week sales in the 250k-300k range, but we won't have an actual projection until Wednesday morning, when we go through all this again. See you then.

 

[ChangeTheTemperature]

Just noticed this posted in other thread - feel free to delete this.

 

[beLIEve]

Mabye sales will pass expectations...(at least mine)

Paul M. sounds supremely confident, now this article says between 600K and 1M!?! My original estimate, which I never posted, was going to be in the 450K to 490K range. However, like I have said in other posts, I am still recovering from back surgery, so I have too much time on my hands. Last Friday morning, I think, between about 5 and 10 AM, I was channel surfing and every time I went by VH-1 OR MTV (can you believe it!) I either saw Vertigo playing or some type of U2 related short.

On VH-1, I stopped and saw that the video stumbled a bit and actually dropped a spot this week from 7 to 8. After they finished with the video countdown, they gave out the "VH-1 top 20", of 100 tracked, for about 5 other charts they keep. As for the #1 artist, or "hottest Top 100 artist”, they got to #1 and said something like "U2 again hold the top spot riding the wave of the smash hit single Vertigo and what most critics agree is their best album ever..." I was like wtf, the album is not even out yet!

It didn't stop there. They actually rank the "Top 100 albums", so I stuck around and there it was HTDAAB at #1 as well. They gave it great props, went on an on about the VH-1 streaming of the album, etc. But still, it's not even out yet!

At this point, I figured that VH-1 is taking home a big chunk of this huge marketing campaign. I go to VH1.com, and sure enough, it's plastered with U2 stuff. But, they actually do keep these charts on line, and apparently that's nothing new. I've always thought VH-1 was way biased towards U2, but they are still wrapped up in Pop and Hip Hop...it's just that they give more time to rock and AC than MTV ever would. Anyway, here are the chart links. Nice to see U2 at #1 on any chart, IMO.

http://www.vh1.com/artists/charts/top_albums.jhtml

http://www.vh1.com/artists/charts/top_artists.jhtml

http://www.vh1.com/artists/charts/top_videos.jhtml

Speaking of MTV, they also played the video at least twice and gave props to the album, said it would be streaming at MTV.com, etc. I just have to wonder if and how much money goes from the record company to these two networks to promote the album. Regardless, the point of my post was that I thought U2 really promoted ATYCLB…I mean they were on SNL, Leno, Letterman, and did the Irving Plaza deal and other small venues, got lots of live stuff (and the real deal) all over the net, etc., and was impressed with their first week sales, even if they came in 3rd.

Now, I-POD and the publicity push for this album is much more than ATYCLB ever was, and this album is also much better (just my humble opinion). I think many people have heard it, or parts of it, and I have changed my prediction to 575K. Conservative compared to most and the article from hits daily double, but still a big increase from their biggest opening week ever and enough to debut at #1 me thinks.

A topic that will soon be on many U2 message boards, however, will be about the impending U2 backlash…again, just IMO and not the way I feel about U2, either. I do think it’s coming, though…

 

[Adam22]

These predictions are great news. If they predict 600 to 1 million than 800k is easily in reach that would almost double U2s last effort. Even 600k would be a huge number and a likely number 1.

These numbers do seem a little high but we gotta remember that U2 have not come off a hit album since after AB and that was at a time when CD sales were much lower overall. For an album to sell 600k in 93 or 94 would be record breaking today it is not all that uncommon. With all of the promotion, Vertigo becoming a huge hit and the Apple commercials I think U2 will sell 800k in their first week.

 

[riteshbhatt1]

With the 3 different versions, won't it hurt the single disc version in terms of debuting at #1?

 

[womanfish]

With the 3 different versions, won't it hurt the single disc version in terms of debuting at #1?

We don't know for sure how the seperate editions will be counted. since the bonus disc is a dvd, it may mean that it is still a single disc set and would count along with the regular version. But Soundscan is unpredictable, so who knows.

 

[Matthew_Page2000]

Utterly ridiculous. No way in hell U2 sells more than 500,000 copies week 1. And that would be their single week record for any album. Where the heck are these 600,000-1 million predictions coming from? Edge's mom?

 

[roy]

Utterly ridiculous. No way in hell U2 sells more than 500,000 copies week 1. And that would be their single week record for any album. Where the heck are these 600,000-1 million predictions coming from? Edge's mom?

I'm loving it..

 

[beLIEve]

Not Edge's Mom...but his wife

From www.Sludge_report.org

Q. Is the Edge's Mom making any of these wild album sales forecasts of nearly 1M in just the first week?

A. Actually, Edge's Mom has stayed out of the sales predictions, but his wife, dancer Morleigh Edge, has been promoting the album heavily, and she was the first to drop the 1M figure at various U2 fan-based websites. When we finally got an interview with Edge's Mom, she explained that Morleigh and Edge are nearly broke, as they have many, many more children than what has been publicly acknowledged. In fact, she confirmed that the Morleigh's first six (that's also the number of children they say they have) pregnancies via the Edge were 3 sets of twins followed by tres triplets.

We can only estimate that with this kind of potency, Edge has fathered somewhere around 25 children, unless he had an off-year. It could have been higher, we're told, but Morleigh apparently "cut off the Edge" after 2001. This may explain all the angry guitars and time in the studio by the Edge, and why Bono and his other bandmates have described the Edge as "An extremely frustrated guy who's gone mad on this record." It may also explain Morleigh's recent slip of the tongue in a brief interview with Rolling Stone, when she referred to the new album as "How to Dismantle an Atomic Edge" not once, but three times!

This has been a closely guarded secret of the Edge for 12 years running, even though Bono did his best to give it away during the Elevation tour, constantly referring to the Edge as having "more children than Abraham", which has not been confirmed and doesn't seem mathematically possible. Regardless, the high cost of raising 25+ kids have kept the Edge's bank account in constant arrears, so there is a lot riding on the success of the new album.

Sources close to Morleigh would not confirm the rumor that the Edge may get his "priveleges" back if the album cracks 1M, which would indeed cause quite an explosion in Ireland, but would also cost the Edge nearly $400,000 in daily plane tickets during the bands upcoming tour...

Developing...

 

[FullonEdge2]

LOL

 

[kevink]

Just out of curiosity, what were the first week sales for The Joshua Tree and Achtung Baby?

 

[womanfish]

Just out of curiosity, what were the first week sales for The Joshua Tree and Achtung Baby?

AB was around 295K but SoundScan was just starting.
JT was pre soundscan when albums used to enter the charts a little lower and then climb. (before the first week sales thing became so important) Not sure if there are any solid "first week" numbers for JT. Sting? Doc?

 

[Dima]

from Hitsdailydouble:

"Next week, it’s all about whether U2’s Bomb can blow up the million mark"

they seem to insist on this story...honestly i think 1 million copies is far from reality..anyway let's wait

 

[zoo tv mcg]

From memory, JT debuted at number 7 on the US charts, so this would probably equate to sales of about 100k maybe - who knows the real number. It got to number 3 the next week and then spent 9 glorious weeks at number 1.

As for Hits, they must be getting whispers from some-where that 600k to 1m is possible - it is twice they mentioned this now so who knows - time will tell.

 

[tkramer]

I still don't understand why everyone is surprised at the idea of a 600,000+ week. I'll say it one more time: this is the biggest music buying week of the year. 400,000 would be a disapointment. 600,000+ is much more likely. I've been guessing over that for three months now. (I've been guessing 650,000-750,000 for the most part.)

 

[doctorwho]

I would LOVE, LOVE, LOVE to see sales of 600,000+ - and I do think this is possible.

However, I doubt for several reasons. U2 is an older band - they don't have the teeny-bopper market, with their extra cash, rushing out to buy them. U2's current SoundScan era record is the 428,000 copies ATYCLB sold in its first week. To sell over 200,000 copies more than that would be a tremendous feat. Hitting the million mark in sales is usually reserved for incredibly hot artists, like Eminem. In the late 90's, bands like N'Sync would easily fly past that mark. But in the era of downloads, it has become more challenging - and there aren't as many "super hot" artists out there. Is U2 "super hot" now? We all say yes, but we are heavily biased. I'm not sure what "Joe Schmoe" on the street feels.

It's based on these doubts that I'm being more reserved.

Still, for the sake of Edge's 25 children, I hope it sells a million copies its first week.

 

[tkramer]

Keep the faith good doc, I'm tellin' ya, it will be over 700,000...

 

[STING2]

I would LOVE, LOVE, LOVE to see sales of 600,000+ - and I do think this is possible.

However, I doubt for several reasons. U2 is an older band - they don't have the teeny-bopper market, with their extra cash, rushing out to buy them. U2's current SoundScan era record is the 428,000 copies ATYCLB sold in its first week. To sell over 200,000 copies more than that would be a tremendous feat. Hitting the million mark in sales is usually reserved for incredibly hot artists, like Eminem. In the late 90's, bands like N'Sync would easily fly past that mark. But in the era of downloads, it has become more challenging - and there aren't as many "super hot" artists out there. Is U2 "super hot" now? We all say yes, but we are heavily biased. I'm not sure what "Joe Schmoe" on the street feels.

It's based on these doubts that I'm being more reserved.

Still, for the sake of Edge's 25 children, I hope it sells a million copies its first week.

Before one considers U2 as a bunch of old men who can't sell albums anymore, or that the rest of us are biased in our estimates, consider these facts below.


These are the best selling albums Worldwide that have been released since January 2000!

1. Beatles: 1 : 24,000,000
2. Norah Jones: Come Away With Me : 18,000,000
3. Eminem: The Marshall Mathers LP : 17,000,000
4. Eminem: The Eminem Show : 16,000,000
5. Evanescence: Fallen : 16,000,000
6. Britney Spears: Oops!....I Did It Again : 15,000,000
7. Linkin Park: Hybrid Theory : 14,000,000
8. Avril Lavigne: Let Go : 14,000,000
9. N'Sync: No Strings Attached : 13,000,000
10. Madonna: Music : 12,500,000
11. U2: ALL THAT YOU CAN'T LEAVE BEHIND : 12,000,000
12. Dido: No Angel : 11,000,000
13. Limp Bizkit: Chocolate Starfish : 11,000,000
14. Shakira: Laundry Service : 11,000,000
15. Pink: M!SSUNDAZTOOD : 11,000,000
16. Enya: A Day Without Rain : 10,500,000
17. Shaggy: Hotshot : 10,500,000
18. Moby: Play : 10,000,000
19. Shania Twain : UP : 10,000,000
20. Usher : Confessions : 10,000,000

Notice who has the 11th biggest selling album of this decade? Also realize that with the possible exception of Madonna, none of the above artist could even do 50% of attendence/Gross of what U2 does on the global concert circuit, which is equally indicative of popularity as album sales.

 

[doctorwho]

Sting2: It's not that I don't think U2 will sell well over the long haul. ATYCLB proved that.

What I was questioning was the big first week sales. Of the artists you listed above, only the hot younger acts had huge first week sales (over 600,000 copies sold in the U.S.), barring the Beatles "1", which was an exception.

 

[Dima]

is the special promotion (8.99$) just for U2 or even other acts benefited from it? for example what's the retail price of Eminem's cd in these days?
just wondering if it's a commercial move to get the #1 or if it's a normal procedure in the states to have special prices on new cd.

 

[womanfish]

is the special promotion (8.99$) just for U2 or even other acts benefited from it? for example what's the retail price of Eminem's cd in these days?
just wondering if it's a commercial move to get the #1 or if it's a normal procedure in the states to have special prices on new cd.

Often big releases here are priced low for the first 2-3 weeks to get more sales and thus higher chart position which they hope will make people see it as more popular and continue to buy it after putting the price back up to 14 or 15 bucks.

Then because it's the big holiday shopping day, they are doing a special price probably on all the top 5 or 10 big albums.

 

[STING2]

Sting2: It's not that I don't think U2 will sell well over the long haul. ATYCLB proved that.

What I was questioning was the big first week sales. Of the artists you listed above, only the hot younger acts had huge first week sales (over 600,000 copies sold in the U.S.), barring the Beatles "1", which was an exception.

In the first week for the United States, perhaps, but what about WORLDWIDE for the first week? The United States is only 33% of the market. In addition, if the predictions putting first week United States sales of "Bomb" at 1 million prove true, then the only area that "hot young acts" have the edge in will be gone.

 

[u2mad25]

Was just listening to K-Rock here in NY this morning and, as they played the intro to 'All Because of You', he mentioned that HTDAAB sold 400k in its first day (and I would assume he meant US only). INCREDIBLE!

 

[sue4u2]

They were up to #4 on the VH1 top 20 countdown this morning.
up from #6 the week before
which was up from #7
and 12 the week before that.
It came in the first week at #20

That's only 5 weeks on the top 20 countdown.

Not that I care what VH1 has to say. but I've been watching and it's shot up faster than any other artist that has come in lately. Vertigo is knocking off or blocking alot of other artist and is ahead of Gwen/No Doubt and Beyonce? Don't think U2 will beat out Kelly Clarkston just for the fact it's American Idol stuff..

That's not to say it's gone as high as it will and will start to fall. Do I care.?. no.. All thought #1 would be nice to reflect the fact that the "younger generation" hasn't totally lost it's sense of what real music is.. Yeah... right