financeguy
ONE love, blood, life
My prediction:
$85-$95 per barrel
$85-$95 per barrel
something tells me, similar to what happened with the hostages in iran with in 1980, that OPEC will all of a sudden not have the same supply/demand issues the day bush leaves office... especially if obama wins, but i think even if mccain wins we'll still see something done.
I think most of the speculation in derivatives markets is done by Americans,
Oh, the OPEC is not necessarily the main cost driver these days. It is the derivatives markets with the huge amount of speculation that pushes the price.
The OPEC could reduce the prices for crude oil but don't expect too much from that.
Oh, and your weak dollar isn't helping you much either, but to the contrary, it's even yet another reason for the high prices.
I wonder who really is paying more for petrol
Americans or Europeans?
currently I am paying $0.27 per mile driven
I think that is $0.17 per kilometer.
or .09 British pounds per kilometer driven
or .11 Euros per kilometer driven
I think most of the speculation in derivatives markets is done by Americans, but I could be wrong, don't have figures at hand, so in that sense they are the center of the raw material prices universe.
Hard to answer as I'm honestly lacking the data. Last I heard was that the speculation makes more than 30 percent of the oil price, but that's more than a year ago.
I'm afraid the declining output might act as an accelerator even. If you see such a table that clearly shows how supply is decreasing of course you will bet on rising oil prices. And it's no secret that we are not really that seriously trying to lower our demand, and that's not only the case for the US.
We have just had a historic moment here in Germany: For the first time diesel has been more expensive than gasoline.
Since oil has slid about 12 bucks a barrel in the past 10 days, we should see a corresponding drop in gas prices right? Afterall, they have been telling us that gas prices are directly related to oil prices.
That also happened in the U S awhile back.
I believe the higher demand for diesel for transport trucks and other large equipment is driving the cost of oil up more than petrol.
I just bought a tank of gasoline at $4.50 a gallon.
based on my vehicle's gas mileage
I am paying $0.30 to drive one mile
or $0.19 for each kilometer I drive
I do believe the average Euro car is much more fuel efficient
than the average American's car
my example was what each person is paying
for the petrol or gasoline they purchase
we could even look at a percentage of monthly income used for gasoline/ petrol purchases
The London-based ICE actually has a higher volume and lower margin requirement for Brent crude than does the NYMEX for WTI crude.
Yes, declining exports will accelerate, which is why I'm always long crude. The 30% is hard to quantify - you have to differentiate between physical and financial speculators. On the day the contract expires (each month), the contract terms require physical delivery of the oil. Most speculators don't take the physical delivery, but some do (if they own oil tanks).
Financial speculators have to be out of the contract before it expires. That means the settlement price on expiration is determined by the physical oil participants.
Since oil has slid about 12 bucks a barrel in the past 10 days, we should see a corresponding drop in gas prices right? Afterall, they have been telling us that gas prices are directly related to oil prices.
That is a question of fuel efficiency not taxation, Australians pay more for fuel and have a bloody big country to boot.I wonder who really is paying more for petrol
Americans or Europeans?
currently I am paying $0.27 per mile driven
I think that is $0.17 per kilometer.
or .09 British pounds per kilometer driven
or .11 Euros per kilometer driven
Prices pushed sharply higher Friday after Morgan Stanley analyst Ole Slorer said he expected strong demand in Asia could drive prices to $150 by Independence Day, when millions of Americans are expected to take to the roads.
There was a brief correction of about 10% for oil, but it was up $6/barrel today. Wholesale gasoline prices dropped around 15 cents before recovering today. It may translate into a few cents at the pump (briefly), especially since there was some demand destruction for gasoline of around 1.4% (vs. the same week last year) due to the higher prices.