Global Pandemic Part III: A typical Spring, Just Ask China

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Between Moderna and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll have something by early 2021.



I don’t have big doubts on the science. Tho vaccines don’t just get produced cause we hope or how hard people work.

Where i have my pessimism is the US government under Trump rolling out a vaccine plan successfully
 
The problems are significant - you need multiple doses, it doesn't appear that even with multiple doses it will be anywhere near fully effective, and you have to produce AND deliver those multi-doses.

Even if something is available in 2021, by the time they administer it to high-risk populations - elderly, healthcare workers and other essential workers, it will be months and months before the public will have access to it.
 
I'm not expecting the first round of vaccines to wipe COVID 19 from the face of the planet.

But if the first batches can make this out to actually be like the flu (like for reals, not a figment inside gZus's Ordinary Spring [emoji769] brain), then we can get back about our lives.

And maybe that's too optimistic for round one - but, well, we'll see.
 
The unique combination of this pandemic's severity and the level of medical and scientific advancement that we have reached makes precedence and projection fairly useless. I'm just going to wait and see what happens because, well, that's all I can do.
 
I think it's more about managing expectations.

It should be obvious to everyone that the first to be vaccinated have to be those in the highest-risk groups, including 65+, immuno-compromised individuals, those with serious co-morbidities and healthcare workers. After that you start going down the list of other essential workers, and then make your way to the general public.

My concern is that people will start losing their shit if/when a vaccine is out and they are realistically told that their turn will be in 4-5 months.

Which is to say nothing of the idiots who will refuse it altogether on the grounds of being terrified of Bill Gates.
 
20% say they will not take a Covid19 vaccine
30% are unsure.

Not really good numbers to build a herd

I want to get back to taking body shots off of drunk coeds in pacific beach. I stopped because i care about the well beings of others

For the greater good.

But at what cost. At what cost

Ma freedrum
 
Where are these numbers coming from? They sound extremely high.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...get-covid-19-vaccine-here-s-how-win-over-rest

I have seen a wide range of figures for what would constitute herd immunity in this case, some of which are far below the traditional 60% threshold.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200623111329.htm

However, even if it weren't enough for herd immunity, 43% of the population being immune would significantly slow spread by limiting available vectors. It's not an all or nothing issue. The difficulty is getting it to 150 million Americans efficiently.
 
I want to get back to taking body shots off of drunk coeds in pacific beach. I stopped because i care about the well beings of others


Just quietly, don't think anyone wants to see you doing this, McBeal. :wink:
 
Why don’t they teach if you have sex in a dream (human or demon) that it creates a baby in real life ???

It’s like a really dumb attempt at Inception knockoff
 
Where are these numbers coming from? They sound extremely high.

I actually think they are low.

Influenza vaccine uptake is just under 50%. And nobody (at least I think nobody?) thinks that Bill Gates is microchipping us by way of flu vaccine, meaning that there is a whole new group of idiots who will decline.
 
I actually think they are low.

Influenza vaccine uptake is just under 50%. And nobody (at least I think nobody?) thinks that Bill Gates is microchipping us by way of flu vaccine, meaning that there is a whole new group of idiots who will decline.

But aren't all of these idiots already anti-vaxxers who wouldn't take the influenza vaccine. The Venn diagram here is a circle.
 
I guess there are those who continue to insist that covid is no different than the common flu. The only place I see that mentality is YouTube comments on sports videos, though. I can't imagine that is 20% or more of the population.
 
But aren't all of these idiots already anti-vaxxers who wouldn't take the influenza vaccine. The Venn diagram here is a circle.

I think they are two distinct groups.

You have your anti-vaxxers who don't want to vaccinate their kids against anything. A huge swath of these is made up of educated, upper middle class crunchy granola types who aren't conservative in their views.

Then you have a new group who actually largely vaccinates, including for influenza at least to some extent, but have been convinced that this vaccine is somehow evil. This new group is a result of QAnon / radio talk show hosts ranting about Bill Gates / Trumpism or the belief that this is a giant hoax or scamdemic perpetuated by the left, China, the WHO and 5G.
 
I actually think they are low.



Influenza vaccine uptake is just under 50%. And nobody (at least I think nobody?) thinks that Bill Gates is microchipping us by way of flu vaccine, meaning that there is a whole new group of idiots who will decline.
The flu hasn't shut down the global economy...


But I don't discount the idea that large numbers won't vaccinate. Just today I overheard a couple of people talking about how they won't vaccinate because they don't trust the government - and these aren't Republican voters, either.
 
The flu hasn't shut down the global economy...


But I don't discount the idea that large numbers won't vaccinate. Just today I overheard a couple of people talking about how they won't vaccinate because they don't trust the government - and these aren't Republican voters, either.


I'm by no means an anti-vaxxer and get my flu shot every year, but even I have some hesitations about a potential covid vaccine.

Development has been crazy accelerated and I do wonder what steps are being skipped. With lower stakes but we've seen research being rushed and even the Lancet having to retract publications. There's a reason science generally progresses slowly. These are obviously extraordinary circumstances but it gives me pause.

Also what is the first viable vaccine comes from China? I think we can expect the number of people refusing to double.

More concerning to me at least is the fact that any kind of long-term immunity seems more unlikely by the week. The last I've seen from the Oxford vaccine is that they're hoping that two doses provide the same level of antibodies as someone who has recovered from the disease. Except we don't know if and for how long these people are protected for. If there is no long-term immunity, herd immunity is a pipe dream and we might as well focus on treatment and rapid test kits. I'll happily be wrong about that and we get a magic shot that puts an end to this virus but I'm very sceptical.

In any case, I'm young(-ish), healthy and without any elderly or immunocompromised people living close to me, so I'll be far down the line to get a vaccine, so my trepidation won't really affect much of anything. I don't think I'm the only one though and at least anecdotally this seems to be a fairly common thinking in my circle.
 
29-Year-Old Fla. Man Who Got $4M in COVID-19 Relief Funds Buys $318K Lamborghini

David T. Hines allegedly lied about his monthly payroll expenses on his PPP loan applications, and spent the relief money he received on a luxury car and high-end hotels

By Rachel DeSantis
July 28, 2020

A Florida business owner was arrested and charged with bank fraud, among other things, after he inflated his business costs to receive more money in coronavirus relief loans, then blew the cash on things like luxury hotels and a $318,497 Lamborghini sports car, officials said.


David T. Hines, 29, was charged with bank fraud, engaging in transactions in unlawful proceeds and making a false statement to a lending institution, according to an affidavit filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida.

Hines was one of many business owners to seek financial help amid the coronavirus shutdown by applying for a Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan, which required businesses to submit an application with information such as monthly payroll expenses and number of employees.

But instead of using the money to help keep his four businesses afloat, he “immediately diverted loan proceeds to unauthorized uses”.

Hines initially sought $13.5 million in PPP funds, which he claimed was to pay approximately 70 employees, according to the affidavit, which was written by U.S. Postal Inspector Bryan Masmela.


“Those purported employees either did not exist or earned a fraction of what Hines claimed in his PPP applications,” Masmela wrote, adding that Hines’ monthly expenses only averaged around $200,000, and not $4 million, as he had claimed.

Three of Hines’ seven loan applications were approved, and he received $3,984,557 million in PPP loans in May, officials said.

That money immediately went to things like dating websites, luxury jewelry and clothes and stays at popular Miami Beach resorts, according to the affidavit.

Hines allegedly dropped $4,662 at Saks Fifth Avenue, $8,530 at Graff Diamonds, and had a $4,089 stay at the Fontainebleau, among other expenses.

He also spent $318,497 on a Lamborghini Huracan Evo on May 18, which he registered jointly in his name and in the name of Unified Relocation Solutions (URS), his self-described moving company, officials said.


The Miami Herald reported that the car has since been impounded following a July 11 hit-and-run accident, and will be seized by prosecutors.

URS is one of four of Hines’ business; according to the affidavit, none have a working website, and the only recorded activity of the businesses anywhere on the internet comes from negative Better Business Bureau reviews for two of them.
 
This is just very sad. And there are many other stories like this.

NBC News
July 27, 2020, 2:14 PM EDT
By Janelle Griffith


Fourteen members of the same family in Texas tested positive for the coronavirus following a small gathering in June hosted by a man who says he believed the coronavirus was a hoax. One of them has died and another is on life support.

Tony Green, who lives in Dallas and hosted the event, wrote a column titled, "A harsh lesson in the reality of COVID-19," in which he said he was a former COVID-19 denier. The column was published online July 24 in the "Dallas Voice," which describes itself as "a media source for LGBT Texas."


"I admit I voted for Donald Trump in 2016. I admit traveling deep into the conspiracy trap over COVID-19," Green wrote. "All the defiant behavior of Trump’s more radical and rowdy cult followers, I participated in it. I was a hard-a-- that stood up for my 'God-given rights.'"

Green added: "In great haste, I began prognosticating the alphabet soup about this 'scamdemic.' I believed the virus to be a hoax. I believed the mainstream media and the Democrats were using it to create panic, crash the economy and destroy Trump’s chances at re-election."

Green said that after months of social distancing, he and his partner hosted a party for their parents on June 13. Green and his partner are not married but have been together nearly 9 years and he said he considers his partner's family as his in-laws.

He and his partner did not wear masks at the gathering, nor did their parents.


"We just felt the worst was behind the country because everything was easy, things were reopening and none of us were experiencing any symptoms," Green said.

The next day, Green said, he woke up feeling sick. By June 15, his partner and parents, all of whose names he declined to provide, were all sick.


Green, 43, told NBC News in a phone interview Monday that he has chronicled the episode in a GoFundMe that he launched to cover the medical expenses for his partner's father, Rafael Ceja, who has pneumonia and is on life support after testing positive for COVID-19.

Green said his partner's parents traveled from their home in Dallas to Austin on June 15 for the birth of their first grandchild. Ceja's mother and one of his partner's sisters also joined them for the visit.


"That night in Austin, my father-in-law became ill," Green said.

Then his mother-in-law and sister-in-law began feeling ill. Although his wife's parents and his sister-in-law quickly left Austin, the parents of the newborn also got sick and tested positive for the coronavirus, Green said.

The newborn was spared, he said.

Between June 17 and 23, his father-in-law's mother became ill.


"The pain and trauma that was yet to come is more than anybody could have prepared for," Green wrote on GoFundMe.

Green said he and his father-in-law were both admitted to the hospital June 24.

The virus attacked his central nervous system, Green said, and he nearly had a stroke. He spent a few days in the hospital. Sometime in late June, his father-in-law's mother was admitted to the same hospital as her son.

She died of COVID-19 and pneumonia July 2 in a room next door to her son, Green said. Ceja was unaware his mother was in a room next to his.


Later that day, Ceja learned his mother had passed away without any family by her side. "Not only would Rafael miss her funeral, he didn't even get to say goodbye or see her one last time," Green wrote on GoFundMe.

Green said his mother-in-law, Marisa, called him "crying and screaming in terror" July 12 to inform him Ceja was on life support.

Two days later, a funeral was held for Ceja's mother. Only 10 family members could attend.

Narrowing the guest count was made possible with the continuing bad news: Two of Ceja's sisters, one of his nephews and a brother-in-law had all contracted the virus bringing the total number of infected family members to 14, Green said.


Twelve family members have either recovered or are in various stages of recovery, Green said Monday.

He said he has had a front-row seat to his mother-in-law and father-in-law's suffering.

"I cannot help but feel responsible for convincing our families it was safe to have a get-together," he said.

The guilt he feels is overwhelming.


"There's a lot of things that I would have done differently," he said.

Green said he decided to publicly document his family's diagnoses because he knows many people in the Dallas area who are unconvinced the virus can be deadly and of the importance of social distancing. The decision has divided his family, he said.

"I just don’t think that people are really paying enough attention to the safety protocols and to the things they can do to protect themselves a little better," he said Monday.

Green said that he is uncertain whether staying at least 6 feet from other people who are not from your household in both indoor and outdoor spaces is effective in reducing the spread of the virus, as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has said.


"I just didn't see that six feet apart makes a difference because of the distance germs can travel," he said. "I’m still not 100 percent sure that it does."

Still, he said, he believes people need to be more vigilant about wearing masks. There is increasing evidence that face coverings help prevent people who have COVID-19 from spreading the virus to others, according to the CDC.

On July 2, Gov. Greg Abbott changed course and made it mandatory to wear masks in public in any county with 20 or more cases of the coronavirus.

"Wearing a face covering in public is proven to be one of the most effective ways we have to slow the spread of COVID-19," Abbott said in a statement announcing his executive order.


After cases related to bars began to spike, Abbott ordered them closed June 26.

Green said he has friends in Dallas who do not think that the virus is significant enough to alter their way of life.

"I don't think they're going to change their opinions unless it bites them in the butt like it did me," he said.
 
I'd almost rather take a Chinese vaccine over a Russian one, if they were both rushed to market. Neither country respects human rights on any level but the Chinese actually do care about their image and long-term business opportunities that arise from it.
 
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