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U2, Kanye West Lead Predictions for Grammy Prize
By Edna Gundersen
USA TODAY
All Grammys are not created equal. While 1,100 nominees are vying for 108 trophies, one contest trumps the rest for prestige, pizzazz and PR power.
Album of the year.
Music's most coveted prize, an anointing of artistic merit that also can reignite sales, brings five diverse candidates into a tight race decided by a notoriously illogical voting body.
The results will be revealed during the Grammy Awards, airing at 8 p.m. Wednesday on CBS. The five albums in play are U2's "How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb," Kanye West's "Late Registration," Mariah Carey's "The Emancipation of Mimi," Paul McCartney's "Chaos and Creation in the Backyard" and Gwen Stefani's "Love Angel Music Baby."
They're listed in the order that Paul Grein, music writer and veteran Grammy prognosticator, believes the voters will rank them. The criteria? Popularity, artistry, sales, lovability, history and mysterious ephemera.
"I think U2 will win," says Grein, countering a consensus leaning West. "Three albums have a shot. Kanye is second, Mariah is third. I've got to believe U2 will take it. They're so respected, and they stand for the traditional pop-rock craft that has always done well in the Grammys going back 35 years."
Those in West's corner argue that "Registration'"s unprecedented praise, non-gangsta stance and big sales make it a shoo-in and that its chances are further enhanced because the rapper's "College Dropout" did not win last year.
"It's hard to see Kanye winning when just a year ago he couldn't beat Maroon 5 for best new artist," Grein says. "There's still resistance to rap."
Though a win for West would be a milestone, it's not a Grammy first. Hip-hop duo Outkast won best album two years ago.
"Rap got over that hurdle and set a precedent," Grein says. "But Outkast faced very weak competition. If Kanye does win, it would be a much more convincing statement about rap's appeal. He would be beating a Beatle, the most respected band since The Beatles and the year's biggest-selling album."
Paul McCartney
Album: "Chaos and Creation in the Backyard"
Sales and airplay: "Chaos" has sold 465,000 copies since its release Sept. 13, according to Nielsen SoundScan. McCartney failed to register in any Nielsen BDS year-end radio-format airplay charts, falling well behind teen idol Jesse McCartney.
Critical standing: Widely regarded as a return to form. Metacritic: 76 (out of 100). Rolling Stone: 4 stars (out of 5). EW: B. USA TODAY: 3 stars (out of 4). The "mood and sound may be 'very twee, very me,' as he sings, yet a darker-than-usual tone saturates the Beatlesque pop tunes here. Some ... are reminders that McCartney's relevance extends past 'Yesterday.' " -- Edna Gundersen.
Touring boost: McCartney had the fifth-highest-grossing tour in North America last year, with gross revenues of $60 million, according to Billboard BoxScore.
Grammy clout: McCartney is also up for male pop vocal and pop vocal album. He has won 13, though none for his work outside The Beatles or Wings. His last best-album trophy was in 1968 for "Sgt. Pepper." He won pop and video Grammys in 1997 for "The Beatles Anthology."
Grammy tilt: Voters adore icons and often anoint under-rewarded artists with "makeup" awards, but Grein sees no such scenario. "The Beatles should have won more Grammys, but McCartney got a lifetime achievement award. This can't be called a comeback, because he's always in the game. It's one of the strongest albums he's made in 20 years, but a good album by a pop legend is not reason enough to win this."
Mariah Carey
Album: "The Emancipation of Mimi"
Sales and airplay: "Mimi," the top-selling album of 2005, has sold 5.1 million copies since its release April 12. "We Belong Together" was the top national airplay song of 2005; "Shake It Off" was No. 6 and "Don't Forget About Us" was No. 38.
Critical standing: Considered by most critics as more of a marketing success than an artistic triumph. Metacritic: 61. Rolling Stone: 21/2 stars. EW: B. USA TODAY: 31/2 stars. "The singer hasn't forsaken her passion for hip-hop. But it's the ballads and midtempo numbers that truly reflect the renewed confidence of a songbird who has taken her shots and kept on flying." -- Elysa Gardner
Touring boost: Carey managed to keep a high profile in 2005 without hitting the road.
Grammy clout: Carey's up for seven other Grammys, including best record and song. She won best new artist and pop female vocal in 1991.
Grammy tilt: "Mariah is strong, because she had the year's No. 1 album and nobody thought she could come back anywhere near this level," Grein says. "This is an unforgiving business, and once your name's a punchline, it's almost impossible to come back. But (modern) R&B isn't a favorite kind of music for a lot of Grammy voters. Traditional R&B is more respected. So a win would be a surprise."
U2
Album: "How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb"
Sales and airplay: "Bomb" has sold 3 million copies since its release Nov. 23, 2004. U2 did not have widespread radio success with the album, but "All Because of You" was the No. 49 modern-rock song of 2005; "Vertigo" was No. 50.
Critical standing: Praised as a creative tour de force that cemented U2's rock reign. Metacritic: 78. Rolling Stone: 4 stars. EW: B. USA TODAY: 4 stars. "Many will declare (it) a return to form ... but it's also a triumphant leap forward that stretches the limited vocabulary of rock 'n' roll without sacrificing the genre's original promise of purity." -- Edna Gundersen
Touring boost: U2's Vertigo Tour trampled the competition, with global grosses exceeding $260 million. The band earned $123.2 million playing to 1.2 million fans at 69 sold-out U.S. dates.
Grammy clout: U2 is up for four other Grammys, including best song. "Bomb" also generated two Grammys from three nominations last year. The band has 16 Grammys but hasn't won best album since 1988 for "The Joshua Tree."
Grammy tilt: Out nearly 15 months, "Bomb" may feel dated to voters. All other elements point to victory. U2 pleases modern and old-school camps. The band has artistic relevancy and earning power. Bono's humanitarianism is a plus. "As in all awards competitions, voters look for ambassadors for their art form, and U2 make great ambassadors," Grein says.
Kanye West
Album: "Late Registration"
Sales and airplay: "Registration" has sold 2.5 million copies since its release Aug. 30. "Gold Digger," despite a July debut, was the nation's No. 4 song last year.
Critical standing: Hailed by many as the year's best album. Metacritic: 84. Rolling Stone: 5 stars. EW: B+. USA TODAY: 4 stars. "Deeper and richer than his debut. ... While at times he comes off as being full of himself, he never fails to be engaging and entertaining. West has taken hip-hop in a fresh direction by exploring ideas beyond the thug lifestyle and attitude." -- Steve Jones
Touring boost: West's fall tour with Fantasia and Keyshia Cole grossed $8 million for 44 U.S. dates. All but seven sold out. He also opened four U2 shows in December.
By Edna Gundersen
USA TODAY
All Grammys are not created equal. While 1,100 nominees are vying for 108 trophies, one contest trumps the rest for prestige, pizzazz and PR power.
Album of the year.
Music's most coveted prize, an anointing of artistic merit that also can reignite sales, brings five diverse candidates into a tight race decided by a notoriously illogical voting body.
The results will be revealed during the Grammy Awards, airing at 8 p.m. Wednesday on CBS. The five albums in play are U2's "How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb," Kanye West's "Late Registration," Mariah Carey's "The Emancipation of Mimi," Paul McCartney's "Chaos and Creation in the Backyard" and Gwen Stefani's "Love Angel Music Baby."
They're listed in the order that Paul Grein, music writer and veteran Grammy prognosticator, believes the voters will rank them. The criteria? Popularity, artistry, sales, lovability, history and mysterious ephemera.
"I think U2 will win," says Grein, countering a consensus leaning West. "Three albums have a shot. Kanye is second, Mariah is third. I've got to believe U2 will take it. They're so respected, and they stand for the traditional pop-rock craft that has always done well in the Grammys going back 35 years."
Those in West's corner argue that "Registration'"s unprecedented praise, non-gangsta stance and big sales make it a shoo-in and that its chances are further enhanced because the rapper's "College Dropout" did not win last year.
"It's hard to see Kanye winning when just a year ago he couldn't beat Maroon 5 for best new artist," Grein says. "There's still resistance to rap."
Though a win for West would be a milestone, it's not a Grammy first. Hip-hop duo Outkast won best album two years ago.
"Rap got over that hurdle and set a precedent," Grein says. "But Outkast faced very weak competition. If Kanye does win, it would be a much more convincing statement about rap's appeal. He would be beating a Beatle, the most respected band since The Beatles and the year's biggest-selling album."
Paul McCartney
Album: "Chaos and Creation in the Backyard"
Sales and airplay: "Chaos" has sold 465,000 copies since its release Sept. 13, according to Nielsen SoundScan. McCartney failed to register in any Nielsen BDS year-end radio-format airplay charts, falling well behind teen idol Jesse McCartney.
Critical standing: Widely regarded as a return to form. Metacritic: 76 (out of 100). Rolling Stone: 4 stars (out of 5). EW: B. USA TODAY: 3 stars (out of 4). The "mood and sound may be 'very twee, very me,' as he sings, yet a darker-than-usual tone saturates the Beatlesque pop tunes here. Some ... are reminders that McCartney's relevance extends past 'Yesterday.' " -- Edna Gundersen.
Touring boost: McCartney had the fifth-highest-grossing tour in North America last year, with gross revenues of $60 million, according to Billboard BoxScore.
Grammy clout: McCartney is also up for male pop vocal and pop vocal album. He has won 13, though none for his work outside The Beatles or Wings. His last best-album trophy was in 1968 for "Sgt. Pepper." He won pop and video Grammys in 1997 for "The Beatles Anthology."
Grammy tilt: Voters adore icons and often anoint under-rewarded artists with "makeup" awards, but Grein sees no such scenario. "The Beatles should have won more Grammys, but McCartney got a lifetime achievement award. This can't be called a comeback, because he's always in the game. It's one of the strongest albums he's made in 20 years, but a good album by a pop legend is not reason enough to win this."
Mariah Carey
Album: "The Emancipation of Mimi"
Sales and airplay: "Mimi," the top-selling album of 2005, has sold 5.1 million copies since its release April 12. "We Belong Together" was the top national airplay song of 2005; "Shake It Off" was No. 6 and "Don't Forget About Us" was No. 38.
Critical standing: Considered by most critics as more of a marketing success than an artistic triumph. Metacritic: 61. Rolling Stone: 21/2 stars. EW: B. USA TODAY: 31/2 stars. "The singer hasn't forsaken her passion for hip-hop. But it's the ballads and midtempo numbers that truly reflect the renewed confidence of a songbird who has taken her shots and kept on flying." -- Elysa Gardner
Touring boost: Carey managed to keep a high profile in 2005 without hitting the road.
Grammy clout: Carey's up for seven other Grammys, including best record and song. She won best new artist and pop female vocal in 1991.
Grammy tilt: "Mariah is strong, because she had the year's No. 1 album and nobody thought she could come back anywhere near this level," Grein says. "This is an unforgiving business, and once your name's a punchline, it's almost impossible to come back. But (modern) R&B isn't a favorite kind of music for a lot of Grammy voters. Traditional R&B is more respected. So a win would be a surprise."
U2
Album: "How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb"
Sales and airplay: "Bomb" has sold 3 million copies since its release Nov. 23, 2004. U2 did not have widespread radio success with the album, but "All Because of You" was the No. 49 modern-rock song of 2005; "Vertigo" was No. 50.
Critical standing: Praised as a creative tour de force that cemented U2's rock reign. Metacritic: 78. Rolling Stone: 4 stars. EW: B. USA TODAY: 4 stars. "Many will declare (it) a return to form ... but it's also a triumphant leap forward that stretches the limited vocabulary of rock 'n' roll without sacrificing the genre's original promise of purity." -- Edna Gundersen
Touring boost: U2's Vertigo Tour trampled the competition, with global grosses exceeding $260 million. The band earned $123.2 million playing to 1.2 million fans at 69 sold-out U.S. dates.
Grammy clout: U2 is up for four other Grammys, including best song. "Bomb" also generated two Grammys from three nominations last year. The band has 16 Grammys but hasn't won best album since 1988 for "The Joshua Tree."
Grammy tilt: Out nearly 15 months, "Bomb" may feel dated to voters. All other elements point to victory. U2 pleases modern and old-school camps. The band has artistic relevancy and earning power. Bono's humanitarianism is a plus. "As in all awards competitions, voters look for ambassadors for their art form, and U2 make great ambassadors," Grein says.
Kanye West
Album: "Late Registration"
Sales and airplay: "Registration" has sold 2.5 million copies since its release Aug. 30. "Gold Digger," despite a July debut, was the nation's No. 4 song last year.
Critical standing: Hailed by many as the year's best album. Metacritic: 84. Rolling Stone: 5 stars. EW: B+. USA TODAY: 4 stars. "Deeper and richer than his debut. ... While at times he comes off as being full of himself, he never fails to be engaging and entertaining. West has taken hip-hop in a fresh direction by exploring ideas beyond the thug lifestyle and attitude." -- Steve Jones
Touring boost: West's fall tour with Fantasia and Keyshia Cole grossed $8 million for 44 U.S. dates. All but seven sold out. He also opened four U2 shows in December.
U2 will win it, no doubt
