Internet talk but i read on another platform that models at this current moment have Biden with a 10 million popular vote advantage
And he can still lose
Not sure on that one. I would say most expert pollsters like Nate Cohen, Nate Silver, Harry Enten, etc... would probably skew more towards the 5 to 6 million as the most Biden could win by and still lose.
Remember, Clinton got 3 million more and only lost by 74,000 votes across 3 different states. This time the decision will be even more on the state level. And because Biden is actually heavily targeting those particular states, I just don't see this as a real concern.
My best estimate is that Biden will actually get around 6 million more votes than Trump this time around, and that's being a bit conservative.
At this point, I think we can say that MN, MI, and WI are safe. PA I believe we can also call safe, but just not as much of a sure thing, not a lot of polling there in the last couple weeks.
That would be a Biden win, if he didn't win any other states that Clinton lost last time.
So after that, it's gravy. But there's a lot of gravy. AZ is looking strong, as strong or a little stronger than PA. NC is leaning Biden, He's still up by 2ish points in FL, They are tied in TX and GA, within 1.5 points in OH and IA, And just as a safety net, Biden is leading in NE-2, which would give him the win if he lost PA and everything else Clinton lost.
I know Dems are worriers. I am one of them. But I think we may all be surprised come Nov. 3rd (or soon after)
I think that Biden will squeak out NC. And I think that GA is truly in play, and I will state here now that I think Biden will win it by just under 1%.
TX is very interesting. Trump up by about half a point. But i've heard some really inspiring stuff from people in TX that are versed in local/state races. And they are seeing some very surprising swings toward Dems in these small races. Places where Trump won by 9 to 12 are now within a point or two. I think Houston is going to be a darker shade of blue this time. I think Austin is going to be even more fired up in turnout. Dallas and Houston are having the same suburban shift we are seeing across the country, And the suburbs are enormous in those areas. It will be a nail biter here. I still think Trump may take it by about 1 or 2 points. But it is winnable.