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Old 11-06-2018, 09:47 PM   #721
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also, a bit lost in the mix of all this tonight, is the first openly gay man to be elected as a state governor in america!

congratulations to jared polis in colorado.
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Old 11-06-2018, 09:47 PM   #722
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i've been using the live probability tracker at fivethirtyeight to follow along with how the night is going overall.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blo...ults-coverage/

the odds of the democrats winning the house swung from about 90% around 7:45 to about 65% shortly after 8 and it's been hanging around there ever since.
Nate Silver has acknowledged that their probability tracker is a little on the fritz and is being too aggressive. I know they said they were going to try and turn it down a little bit, but I don't know if they did or not.
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Old 11-06-2018, 09:50 PM   #723
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i suspect that they might have done that around the time it was swinging towards the republicans. i saw that tweet too, it was posted at 8:35.

unfortunately the tracker is too small on my screen to really be able to see it in detail, it sucks that you can't enlarge it anymore than what's on the sidebar
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Old 11-06-2018, 09:50 PM   #724
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It stuns me how wrong the polls were in Florida.


They’re not wrong. If a Florida poll says 52-48 and the result is 49-51, the poll was still right.
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Old 11-06-2018, 09:52 PM   #725
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yea florida is almost always within the margin of error either way, polls are pretty much useless in that state other than to confirm that things are still pretty evenly split.
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Old 11-06-2018, 09:53 PM   #726
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Congrats to Mr Polis!
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Old 11-06-2018, 09:55 PM   #727
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Well Kim Davis lost - so there's that
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Old 11-06-2018, 09:56 PM   #728
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They’re not wrong. If a Florida poll says 52-48 and the result is 49-51, the poll was still right.


NBC/Marist had both Dems up by 5 like yesterday.
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Old 11-06-2018, 09:57 PM   #729
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Well Kim Davis lost - so there's that
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Old 11-06-2018, 09:57 PM   #730
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It looks like red is getting redder and blue getting bluer.

Which is bad for everyone.
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Old 11-06-2018, 09:59 PM   #731
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Well Kim Davis lost - so there's that
Oh! Had to look her up.

Buh, byeeee!!!
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Old 11-06-2018, 10:01 PM   #732
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The Senate has gotten some Mittens
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Old 11-06-2018, 10:03 PM   #733
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Tester slight favorite.
We got 4 seats so far.
Tammy Baldwin holding on.
Several Penn seats will probably go blue in next hour or so.
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Old 11-06-2018, 10:03 PM   #734
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Woah Dems pick up a seat in Staten Island
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Old 11-06-2018, 10:06 PM   #735
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Texas has got to look terrifying if you're a Republican projecting 2, 4, 6 years forward. Once Texas becomes truly purple and then inevitably blue, nobody will care how Florida votes anymore.
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Old 11-06-2018, 10:07 PM   #736
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Woah Dems pick up a seat in Staten Island
Oh, cool. Was waiting on that!
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Old 11-06-2018, 10:07 PM   #737
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It looks like red is getting redder and blue getting bluer.

Which is bad for everyone.
Maybe in Georgia (where it's not even fair right now anyways) and Florida, but how do you figure in a state like Kansas or Texas right now?
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Old 11-06-2018, 10:07 PM   #738
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florida should be fine, unless the uncounted votes are drastically more in favour of the republican than the rest of the counties' votes that have been counted so far.
every damn election i say this shit when they do the whole "look on this map at how many democratic votes are left to be counted in the southeast" right after the republican candidate takes the lead.
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Old 11-06-2018, 10:08 PM   #739
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Texas has got to look terrifying if you're a Republican projecting 2, 4, 6 years forward. Once Texas becomes truly purple and then inevitably blue, nobody will care how Florida votes anymore.
This will be a good day

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Old 11-06-2018, 10:08 PM   #740
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Heh, now I heard the Mitt news.
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