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Old 11-04-2020, 07:13 PM   #621
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crazy that PA may come in with better numbers than WI or MI.
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:13 PM   #622
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I think when it shakes out, the biggest things that pollsters will have to address is why were many swing state polls spot on (AZ, MN, NC, GA) within the margins (FL, maybe PA) but WI, MI, IA, OH nearly outside the margin?
What other types of questions could pollsters ask that might tell them how a person would vote beyond what they tell you.

And bottom line is, when you do have a margin of error where one candidate can be 4 points lower and the other could be 4 points higher, people will rage about them, but there answer can always be - we were within the MOE.

I do wonder if Biden's internals were way off too or not. If so, it may really change the game of how campaigns work going forward.


It’s trump related. These people won’t answer questions honestly because they don’t trust pollsters because they’re indoctrinated or ashamed.
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:15 PM   #623
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https://twitter.com/jdiamond1/status...081755142?s=21
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:16 PM   #624
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Come on GA I want to sleep easy tonight
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:22 PM   #625
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Joe's going to win Pennsylvania and Trump knows it. If they didn't know it, they'd be taking the fight to Arizona and Nevada. They know Pennsylvania is the whole ballgame regardless of what happens in AZ, NV or GA.
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:24 PM   #626
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Just anyone tonight idc who
I second that!
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:25 PM   #627
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Oh hey they're trying to stop the count in Georgia now. That's a very good sign for where Georgia is going to end up - buy I do worry about Kemp there.
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:25 PM   #628
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I’m starting to wonder if the Bumble dating app is a better at polling than what we currently use....
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:25 PM   #629
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It's not a problem just in the US, in Australia the polls were wildly wrong in our federal election last year, and I think the Brexit polls were wrong too.
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:27 PM   #630
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It's not a problem just in the US, in Australia the polls were wildly wrong in our federal election last year, and I think the Brexit polls were wrong too.


For sure. And I think you can still cite this right wing populist uprising that outwardly rejects science as a left wing hoax and views the media as against them.
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:28 PM   #631
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Polling has a huge adverse selection issue, which in economics just means that one side has a lot more information than the other. I.e. the voter knows far more about what they will actually do than the pollster ever could. This is one of the most challenging economic issues to address. It's kind of amazing polls get as close as they do IMO.
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:28 PM   #632
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Anyway, I've switched to Fox News. Good viewing atm.
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:28 PM   #633
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I’m starting to wonder if the Bumble dating app is a better at polling than what we currently use....
What about those Christian dating sites that all pointed to a Trump win? Anybody check in there?
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:29 PM   #634
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Anyway, I've switched to Fox News. Good viewing atm.


It’s very weird seeing Fox News as the neutral party here.
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:30 PM   #635
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I’m starting to wonder if the Bumble dating app is a better at polling than what we currently use....
but bumble in phoenix said trump was going to win in a landslide.
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:33 PM   #636
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It's not a problem just in the US, in Australia the polls were wildly wrong in our federal election last year, and I think the Brexit polls were wrong too.
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:34 PM   #637
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It’s very weird seeing Fox News as the neutral party here.
I think they are preparing for life post Trump and trying to regain a modicum of respect.
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:38 PM   #638
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I think they are preparing for life post Trump and trying to regain a modicum of respect.


Highly highly doubt that. Hannity and Tucker have stupid high ratings and Fox News will continue to be batshit, I’m sorry but healing absolutely will not come through them.
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:39 PM   #639
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Highly highly doubt that. Hannity and Tucker have stupid high ratings and Fox News will continue to be batshit, I’m sorry but healing absolutely will not come through them.
Sure but maybe Fox knows that they'll jump ship to Trump TV
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Old 11-04-2020, 07:39 PM   #640
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Meanwhile they're building Joe's stage Click image for larger version

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