US Politics XXIX: The Final Thread Before XXX

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Polling has a huge adverse selection issue, which in economics just means that one side has a lot more information than the other. I.e. the voter knows far more about what they will actually do than the pollster ever could. This is one of the most challenging economic issues to address. It's kind of amazing polls get as close as they do IMO.
 
BEAL said:
I’m starting to wonder if the Bumble dating app is a better at polling than what we currently use....
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What about those Christian dating sites that all pointed to a Trump win? Anybody check in there?
 
cobl04 said:
It's not a problem just in the US, in Australia the polls were wildly wrong in our federal election last year, and I think the Brexit polls were wrong too.
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Hewson said:
I think they are preparing for life post Trump and trying to regain a modicum of respect.
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Highly highly doubt that. Hannity and Tucker have stupid high ratings and Fox News will continue to be batshit, I’m sorry but healing absolutely will not come through them.
 
Why is the dumbest Trump (Eric) being trotted out in Pennsylvania with Rudy?

Where is Don Jr.? Coming down from yesterday’s binge?
 
I find it depressing that amidst all this chaos we are forgetting an important story here. The US is likely to elect its first woman in a presidential ticket.
 
Oh, and also, people get pissed at Nate and Nate, but they only report out the polls and model off of the data they are given. They don’t take them. It’s like blaming Rachel Maddow for something Trump did.
 
gump said:
I find it depressing that amidst all this chaos we are forgetting an important story here. The US is likely to elect its first woman in a presidential ticket.
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Chill, we will get there. Don’t count your chickens and stay vigilant, this is not over.
 
Sounds like PA will be counting all night. How awesome would it be if they called it for Biden later once he pulls ahead?
 
LuckyNumber7 said:
Chill, we will get there. Don’t count your chickens and stay vigilant, this is not over.
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I'm not counting my chickens, really. But the post mortens are out there already about the Dem agenda being basically gone even if Biden wins, but this in itself is an achievement. Anyways, you are right, there will be time for that.


In other news, in GA Biden is now just under 50k votes away.
 
womanfish said:
Oh, and also, people get pissed at Nate and Nate, but they only report out the polls and model off of the data they are given. They don’t take them. It’s like blaming Rachel Maddow for something Trump did.
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Woah totally disagree. This is like saying the president isn’t responsible for fake news qanon tweets he likes or retweets because he didn’t write them.

There isn’t an issue with the polling. The polling didn’t mess anything up. The polling practices are scientific in most cases and follow procedure. The poll itself might miss the mark, but typically it’s the interpreter (such as you or I or a Nate) that is the one that screws up.

Want to screw poll interpretations up? Average them. Want to screw poll interpretations up? Lump them all together or use disparate polls to feed a holistic model. Want to screw poll interpretations up? Fail to account for or explain large unrealistic gaps (ie undecided voters). I’m sorry but this is so frustrating to read... I feel like I write shit and it gets ignored.
 
LuckyNumber7 said:
There isn’t an issue with the polling. The polling didn’t mess anything up. The polling practices are scientific in most cases and follow procedure. The poll itself might miss the mark, but typically it’s the interpreter (such as you or I or a Nate) that is the one that screws up.

Want to screw poll interpretations up? Average them. Want to screw poll interpretations up? Lump them all together or use disparate polls to feed a holistic model. Want to screw poll interpretations up? Fail to account for or explain large unrealistic gaps (ie undecided voters). I’m sorry but this is so frustrating to read... I feel like I write shit and it gets ignored.
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No, there was an issue with the polling (in addition to the obvious issues with the modellers and aggregators).

Susan Collins is a great example. The woman did not have the lead in one single poll in all of 2020 (!!) in a blue state and while being nearly as disliked by Trump’s base as she is by the left. Not as simple as “Trump voters are embarrassed to say they’re voting for her”, so there is more at play here.
 
anitram said:
No, there was an issue with the polling (in addition to the obvious issues with the modellers and aggregators).



Susan Collins is a great example. The woman did not have the lead in one single poll in all of 2020 (!!) in a blue state and while being nearly as disliked by Trump’s base as she is by the left. Not as simple as “Trump voters are embarrassed to say they’re voting for her”, so there is more at play here.
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Yeah, you can say that for certain? Here’s the last 9 Maine senate polls:

Gideon-Collins-Undecided with other candidates (x denotes if not questioned)

48-42-2 with 5-1-1
47-43-4 with 5-2-x
47-40-7 with 5-2-x
44-43-7 with 2-1-1
47-43-4 with 5-2-x
46-41-7 with 3-2-1
49-44-6 with 0-0-1
54-42-4 with x-x-x
43-35-15 with 5-x-x

And what do we see here? Third parties? Nailed it. Gideon? One poll sits outside of her margin of error. Collins? The combination of undecided voters plus her voters in fact is well within her margin in every poll but the same poll that sits outside of the margin (the same poll that didn’t include options for any third party candidate so... you know... for a race where multiple third parties played a role... can’t really trust that!).

Yes, in this case the final result did in fact fall slightly different from the polls.

Yet there’s this persistent notion that Collins was “down” similar to how Donald Trump is “down” in polls everywhere. The numbers are right in front of you. Sufficient data exists to support the notion that Collins was well within margin.
 
To be very clear, you cannot use the statement that “candidate x is up in every poll” as though *more polls matter* unless they’re 1) the same poll and 2) don’t have margins overlapping. So, someone can be happily up 48-43 in every single poll and that means absolutely nothing if the MOE is 4 and there’s 7 points of “undecided.”

That’s a genuinely worthless freaking poll that says “let’s go to the booths and find out.”
 
Arizona is about to tighten, folks. Might be a nerve wracking next hour or so.

Also, GA IS awfully close but I don’t know if there are enough votes left.
 
mikal said:
Arizona is about to tighten, folks. Might be a nerve wracking next hour or so.

Also, GA IS awfully close but I don’t know if there are enough votes left.
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40k away in GA.

I'm stressed about AZ.

Need to continue receiving good PA news.
 
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