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Old 11-04-2020, 12:30 PM   #421
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All that's left to count in Nevada is mail-ins and provisionals. That's why there is no true optimism about the state from the Trump camp.

The writing is on the wall.

thank you!
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Old 11-04-2020, 12:30 PM   #422
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Trump has a lead of 1.4 in NC with 94 percent counted. It looks safe for fuckface.



Nevada's only counted 67 percent, and Biden is leading by 0.6. What's your take on that? They're still counting Vegas and Reno.


The only sources of votes left appear to be 50-50 at absolute worst.

As for NC I agree and all but my point is more that we know it will tighten. Convention says NC will tighten but there just isn’t enough vote left to close the gap (unless there’s literally like 100k still in the mail). Republicans are probably overly concerned.

The same is probably true in AZ and NV. Where are the red votes going to pour in from? Anything can happen sure.
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Old 11-04-2020, 12:32 PM   #423
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NC is unlikely, but Trump is ahead by only 80k votes there and there seems to be just under 500k left? I'm not entirely sure about this.

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Old 11-04-2020, 12:34 PM   #424
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NC is unlikely, but Trump is ahead by only 80k votes there and there seems to be just under 500k left? I'm not entirely sure about this.



Yeah. I would say it’s “likely trump” but you can’t rule it out until they’ve let the days pass as per their law.
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Old 11-04-2020, 12:34 PM   #425
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For the first time since my youngest was a newborn did I upsize to a Starbucks Grande this morning after dropping off the kids. I had asked my assistant to schedule a bunch of training sessions that I have to deliver this month and next and I didn't look at all at the dates she picked until I went to bed last night and realized the first one was today so heaven help me and the attendees.

I would have to imagine that by the end of the day today things should be pretty clear. By "things" I mean which way each state is going and what the Trump campaign intends on disputing.
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Old 11-04-2020, 12:37 PM   #426
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The Senate will also be close. You may find a coalition of like Murkowski and Mnuchin and (god forbid) Collins willing to actually govern again.
I agree with this in theory, but McConnell can simply not bring to a vote any bill he doesn't want to pass.
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Old 11-04-2020, 12:37 PM   #427
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I believe Biden will hold onto Nevada, but I don't discount two things

1) the economy in Nevada has been devastated by lockdowns and are desperate to get business going again by any means necessary. "this is a flu, let's get things moving" seems like a more popular line of thinking than "let's keep things in lockdown and take the short term hit for long term benefit" in my unscientific view of asking my friend who lives there.

2) even though the state is blue-ish, the money (and this political influence) is very, very red.
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Old 11-04-2020, 12:39 PM   #428
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Does anyone think Biden could pull out Georgia? We're all still waiting for a ton of votes from Atlanta and its surrounding area, and there's been some noise that there could be enough there to pull ahead. I'm skeptical. But that would be big in terms of widening the EC margin.
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Old 11-04-2020, 12:40 PM   #429
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For all the doom-saying about polling last night, it *looks* like the most probable scenario is going to happen: a decent popular vote victory and narrow EC victory for Biden.
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Old 11-04-2020, 12:42 PM   #430
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I believe Biden will hold onto Nevada, but I don't discount two things

1) the economy in Nevada has been devastated by lockdowns and are desperate to get business going again by any means necessary. "this is a flu, let's get things moving" seems like a more popular line of thinking than "let's keep things in lockdown and take the short term hit for long term benefit" in my unscientific view of asking my friend who lives there.

2) even though the state is blue-ish, the money (and this political influence) is very, very red.


The majority of the people suffering most are the people who know their bazillionaire employers doesn’t give a fuck about socializing their wealth and are struggling to get the federal government to help them get by.

I get your #2 point, but I just don’t buy that people inherently don’t think pragmatically. Your #1 point makes more sense in Florida - not because their economy is struggling but because they want to make believe like there’s no problem because they’re selfish. Out west I do not think that’s the case. They might still be selfish but I don’t see the same attitude about fake news from people you’d otherwise expect are smart enough to know better.
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Old 11-04-2020, 12:43 PM   #431
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Does anyone think Biden could pull out Georgia? We're all still waiting for a ton of votes from Atlanta and its surrounding area, and there's been some noise that there could be enough there to pull ahead. I'm skeptical. But that would be big in terms of widening the EC margin.
I think it's close to 50-50, but Georgia's voting laws shenanigans worry me.
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Old 11-04-2020, 12:43 PM   #432
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Does anyone think Biden could pull out Georgia? We're all still waiting for a ton of votes from Atlanta and its surrounding area, and there's been some noise that there could be enough there to pull ahead. I'm skeptical. But that would be big in terms of widening the EC margin.


We have seen discrepancies in how many votes are available so it’s hard to say for sure. But the elections guy said 200k outstanding votes to be counted. Assuming they’re urban absentee, then yes it’s still possible.
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Old 11-04-2020, 12:45 PM   #433
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There was an NYT article about Vegas at the beginning of the lock-down that said something like the anger about closures was coming (largely) from potential tourists rather than casino workers etc. Anecdotal I know, but something to consider.
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Old 11-04-2020, 12:46 PM   #434
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MI Senate race very close still with Gary Peters trailing by 0.5 points, but still 10% of the vote to go, mostly from urban areas.
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Old 11-04-2020, 12:49 PM   #435
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Does anyone think Biden could pull out Georgia? We're all still waiting for a ton of votes from Atlanta and its surrounding area, and there's been some noise that there could be enough there to pull ahead. I'm skeptical. But that would be big in terms of widening the EC margin.

i have hope. not strong hope. but it's clearly in the realm of possiblity.

this would be huge, and would almost make up for Florida.

but let's not hope.
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Old 11-04-2020, 12:50 PM   #436
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For all the doom-saying about polling last night, it *looks* like the most probable scenario is going to happen: a decent popular vote victory and narrow EC victory for Biden.


yes. which leads me to a thought: the US is not a Trump Country. but, the US has Trump States.

burn the Electoral College to the fucking ground. and fix the Senate (DC, PR).
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Old 11-04-2020, 12:53 PM   #437
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The majority of the people suffering most are the people who know their bazillionaire employers doesn’t give a fuck about socializing their wealth and are struggling to get the federal government to help them get by.

I get your #2 point, but I just don’t buy that people inherently don’t think pragmatically. Your #1 point makes more sense in Florida - not because their economy is struggling but because they want to make believe like there’s no problem because they’re selfish. Out west I do not think that’s the case. They might still be selfish but I don’t see the same attitude about fake news from people you’d otherwise expect are smart enough to know better.
i agree with your line of thought - i'm just repeating what i've been told by a long time friend on the ground there. there is a lot of desire to ignore or downplay the pandemic in clark county because it is absolutely killing tourism, which in turn is killing nevada's economy.

enough to flip it? i don't think so - but the numbers are closer than even ralston thought they'd be.
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Old 11-04-2020, 12:56 PM   #438
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https://twitter.com/themaxburns/stat...47021146312710
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Old 11-04-2020, 01:01 PM   #439
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i agree with your line of thought - i'm just repeating what i've been told by a long time friend on the ground there. there is a lot of desire to ignore or downplay the pandemic in clark county because it is absolutely killing tourism, which in turn is killing nevada's economy.



enough to flip it? i don't think so - but the numbers are closer than even ralston thought they'd be.


On another note, I can’t find $500 million in Bloomberg spending. I see about $150 million mostly in Florida.

I courteously offer you a bottle of Jack Daniels. It’s not real whiskey, but at the very least he wasn’t “all talk” so that desserves to be thanked. Just mostly all talk.
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Old 11-04-2020, 01:03 PM   #440
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