NLOTH Week 2

[dopper]

I don't scoff.

I disagreed.

And you were correct.

I anticipated more of a 50-60% drop. This was based on what Springsteen's album did this year. As Springsteen is a contemporary and his album was released just a month earlier, I felt that was a good comparison. I even went to 60%, as I felt that was a huge drop.

Despite the drop, I remain adamant that NLOTH will not "disappear". Springsteen's album is still in the Top 50. And U2 have yet to have other songs really break out (they are slower gainers - like "Beautiful Day"). So a slow building hit combined with a tour should keep the album steady.

It will be interesting to see what Clarkson does next week. I'm not predicting a 75% drop either - but then, her album sold about half as many copies, so...

Okay, scoff was a bit harsh. But anyhoo, I really feel like they have about six weeks to save this album. If U2 don't get something going on the radio, it's over. It's difficult to imagine the U.S. stadium onsales taking place the way things currently stand.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

I'm not sure understand your point 100%. What does the 3 albums in the same week selling over 100,000 have anything to do with what we're discussing?

If you look at how albums sell, even in today's climate, a 75% drop is an EXTRAORDINARILY high figure. It wouldn't matter if it sold 1 millon, then dropped to 250,000. That sort of drop off shows the consumer has a lack of interest in the product U2 are putting out right now. As a U2 fan, I find that interesting and concerning.

How To Dismantle An Atomic Bomb had a 66% drop in sales in its 2nd week. Is a 75% drop in sales really that much more alarming than a 66% drop in sales?

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

Okay, scoff was a bit harsh. But anyhoo, I really feel like they have about six weeks to save this album. If U2 don't get something going on the radio, it's over. It's difficult to imagine the U.S. stadium onsales taking place the way things currently stand.

The only thing the album would have to do at this point, is sell an average of 30,000 copies per week for the next 8 months, and it will finish the year as one of the top 10 selling albums of 2009, just as the Joshua Tree was in 1987, Achtung Baby was in 1992, and HTDAAB was in 2005!

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

Here is the top 25 albums of 2008 from Billboard Magazine. Its based on soundscan sales from mid-November 2007 through mid-November 2008, so it includes those big 4th quarter releases of 2007 and Christmas sales from that year:

1 AS I AM Alicia Keys
2 NOEL Josh Groban
3 THA CARTER III Lil Wayne [2,749,947]
4 LONG ROAD OUT OF EDEN Eagles
5 TAYLOR SWIFT Taylor Swift
6 ROCK N ROLL JESUS Kid Rock
7 VIVA LA VIDA OR DEATH AND ALL HIS FRIENDS Coldplay [1,997,583]
8 NOW 26 Various Artists
9 CARNIVAL RIDE Carrie Underwood
10 THE ULTIMATE HITS Garth Brooks
11 HANNAH MONTANA 2 (SOUNDTRACK)/MEET MILEY CYRUS Miley Cyrus
12 GROWING PAINS Mary J. Blige
13 EXCLUSIVE Chris Brown
14 SLEEP THROUGH THE STATIC Jack Johnson
15 BLACK ICE AC/DC [1,565,470]
16 DEATH MAGNETIC Metallica [1,406,500]
17 JONAS BROTHERS Jonas Brothers
18 COCO Colbie Caillat
19 SPIRIT Leona Lewis [1,309,067]
20 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL 2 Soundtrack
21 GOOD GIRL GONE BAD Rihanna
22 E=MC2 Mariah Carey
23 PAPER TRAIL T.I.
24 MAMMA MIA! Soundtrack
25 A LITTLE BIT LONGER Jonas Brothers [1,211,514]



So it only took 1.2 million sales to get to #25 for the year, 1.5 million sales to get to #15 for the year, and 1.9 million sales to get to #7 for the year!

Sales across the market in 2009 are down 12% from last year. So to achieve those same positions in 2009 will likely only take, 1 million for #25, 1.3 million for #15, and 1.7 million for #7!

U2 is already half way(at 610,000 in sales in the USA) to having an album that will be in the top 15 at the end of the year on the Billboard 200 best selling albums of 2009, which will include the 4th quarter sales from 2008 for those that are concerned about that.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

By the way, back in 1997 when the sales environment was MUCH stronger than it is today, POP slid to #12 in its 4th week on the chart with 48,000 in sales. It will be interesting to compare "No Line On The Horizon's" 4th week numbers to that in this much weaker market.

 

[dopper]

The only thing the album would have to do at this point, is sell an average of 30,000 copies per week for the next 8 months, and it will finish the year as one of the top 10 selling albums of 2009, just as the Joshua Tree was in 1987, Achtung Baby was in 1992, and HTDAAB was in 2005!

Do you really expect it to average 30,000 copies for the next 32 weeks? That's basically saying it will be around the top 10 until Thanksgiving. It will probably be under 30,000 by week 5. There are really only two songs, Magnificent and Crazy Tonight, that can save this album. If neither one break out, then NLOTH will be out of the top 100 by July.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

Do you really expect it to average 30,000 copies for the next 32 weeks? That's basically saying it will be around the top 10 until Thanksgiving. It will probably be under 30,000 by week 5. There are really only two songs, Magnificent and Crazy Tonight, that can save this album. If neither one break out, then NLOTH will be out of the top 100 by July.

To average yes, but that does not mean I expect the album to be selling 30,000 copies in week 35, probably more like 10,000 to 15,000 by then. AC/DC and Metallica have been able to sell very well without having any hits to crack the Hot 100 airplay chart.

You realize in predicting that NLOTH will be out of the top 100 by July, your saying that in 15 weeks, or by week 17, that NLOTH will be selling UNDER 5,000 copies per week?

Lets say it only averaged 15,000 copies over the next 33 weeks, that would still put it at 1.1 million by week 35 which will likely be enough to place it just in the top 20 best selling albums for the year in 2009.

 

[nathan1977]

1. McGuiness clearly knew what he was doing by pushing a holiday release followed by a spring tour. Holiday release gooses purchases around the globe, a spring US tour (still the world's biggest market) followed by a summer European tour brings the album back into the limelight. The band blew it by sailing through their November release date.

2. It's interesting that no one's commented on the fact that iTunes doesn't release information on sales/downloads etc. Over the past four and a half years downloads have virtually replaced physical releases. I wonder how charts would shift if that information became available? (I wonder how many people pre-ordered the album on iTunes in the rush of GOYB being released?)

 

[Yahweh]

It just shows how fickle the US fanbase is and its been that way since the Passengers days. But I would judge it based on how other albums are doing in comparisson. Sales arent everything and I hope U2 dont decide to go in a more mainstream adult contemporary direction again just because of a percieved weakening in US fanbase.

This is what made them seem overly calculated in the last many years and personally I dont want to see that again even though the previous 2 records were good for what they were, straight ahead rock music in U2 terms.

Start making music for music's sake and dont worry about the US population thinks. If people buy it they buy it, if not dont worry about it and keep making the music that you find interesting instead of trying to make a manufactured hit. If U2 go into the mold of wanting to write hits like a boy band they should retire because I dont believe that their hardcore fanbase would appriciate that much.

I have the belief that U2 has about 5 million hardcore fans in the world and the rest need to be convinced. If the casual fan isnt getting this album too bad for them.

 

[GibsonExplorer]

I think this quote from hits says it all really, but yes everyone carry on blaming U2 saying how poor it is etc etc, even though its obviously an industry wide problem and not just a U2 problem:

"Last week’s chart-topper, U2’s Interscope album, No Line on the Horizon, dipped to 125k, good for #3, giving the Top 10 a trio of six-figure sales albums for the first time this year."

so this is the first time THIS YEAR that the whole chart has had 3 groups selling more than 100k.

umm it's only march.

 

[Irishteen]

2. It's interesting that no one's commented on the fact that iTunes doesn't release information on sales/downloads etc. Over the past four and a half years downloads have virtually replaced physical releases. I wonder how charts would shift if that information became available? (I wonder how many people pre-ordered the album on iTunes in the rush of GOYB being released?)

iTunes downloads count in nearly all charts worldwide

 

[Yahweh]

Already sold more then Passengers and on its way up I anticipate probably 80K next week and then a steadying out of 40-50K for about the next 4 weeks and then the new single will be out so we will see.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

1. McGuiness clearly knew what he was doing by pushing a holiday release followed by a spring tour. Holiday release gooses purchases around the globe, a spring US tour (still the world's biggest market) followed by a summer European tour brings the album back into the limelight. The band blew it by sailing through their November release date.

2. It's interesting that no one's commented on the fact that iTunes doesn't release information on sales/downloads etc. Over the past four and a half years downloads have virtually replaced physical releases. I wonder how charts would shift if that information became available? (I wonder how many people pre-ordered the album on iTunes in the rush of GOYB being released?)

Every album that is sold on I-tunes is counted by soundscan and included in the totals for the charts. For the first week, 32% of U2's album sales were digital downloads from the internet. 18% were orders of the physical album online. 50% were in store purchases.

 

[fitz]

In Switzerland it stays for a second week on #1!

 

[u2search]

There are really only two songs, Magnificent and Crazy Tonight, that can save this album. If neither one break out, then NLOTH will be out of the top 100 by July.

I think Breathe will make a very good single. Some of my casual U2 listening friends love it.

 

[bathiu]

What about worldwide numbers?
It was around 1.1mln after first week, right? When will the 2nd week numbers be known?

 

[Zoovation]

Friday

 

[fedeu2]

What about worldwide numbers?
It was around 1.1mln after first week, right? When will the 2nd week numbers be known?

The real numbers should be close to 1,35 million for week 1. I mean, you have to count Japan and France sales corresponding to "week 0" and also remember that mediatraffic covers 95% of worldwide sales.

 

[Clean187]

How To Dismantle An Atomic Bomb had a 66% drop in sales in its 2nd week. Is a 75% drop in sales really that much more alarming than a 66% drop in sales?

Yes, because Bomb came out during the week of "Black Friday". It's such a ridiculously inflated sales week, that a large drop off is to be expected. Dropping 75% from a normal, everyday week in March is alarming.

 

[doctorwho]

umm it's only march.

Um, there was a time when the entire Top 10 would sell 100K - on a weekly basis (i.e., not the holiday season).

 

[ajax]

According to billboard.biz NLOTH sold 132,000 copies in its second week in the U.S.A.

 

[Mirrorball06]

Yes it did.

From Billboard.com

Last week's No. 1, U2's "No Line on the Horizon" (Island/Interscope/IGA), drops to the No. 3 slot with 132,000 -- down nearly 73% in its second week.

 

[mosquito]

NLOTH- Canada (second week) #1

U2's numbers reached just over 21,000, down from the 65,000 they sold last week, according to data compiled by Nielsen SoundScan. (-67%)

 

[Zooropa man]

NLOTH slips to #3 in the charts....

yikes... should we be worried that a karaoke winner bumps them off???

Week Ending March 15, 2009: The Idol With The Most - Chart Watch

"U2's No Line On The Horizon slips to #3, falling behind not only Clarkson but also the debuting The-Dream. U2's sales after two weeks: 617,000. The band's last studio album, 2004's How To Dismantle An Atomic Bomb, had sold 1,131,000 copies after two weeks. But that was a completely different market. Let's try a more recent example: After two weeks, Coldplay's Viva La Vida Or Death And All His Friends had sold 971,000 copies. The crucial difference: The first single from Coldplay's album, "Viva La Vida," was a smash, while the first single from U2's album, "Get On Your Boots," was a dud. (And no other hit singles have yet come along to fill the void.)"

 

[phillyfan26]

Viva La Vida wasn't the first single off Viva La Vida. Good fact-checking, Yahoo.

 

[Acrobat08]

that's not a lot in two weeks for someone like U2

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

Yes, because Bomb came out during the week of "Black Friday". It's such a ridiculously inflated sales week, that a large drop off is to be expected. Dropping 75% from a normal, everyday week in March is alarming.

1.) Actually, it was a 73% drop because the official soundscan figure reported today was 132,000 in sales.

2.) Do you realize how much easier it is to obtain an album for free today once it is released compared to 4 years ago? The number of people who can and do obtain music for free has greatly increased since then. That increases the level of decline in any albums second week.

3.) Not satisfied with the BOMB example, lets try All That You Can't Leave Behind:

Sales in the first two weeks in the USA:

428,000 + 176,000

That right there is a 59% drop in sales from the first week to the second. Are you going to tell me that a 73% drop in the 2nd week sales is alarming in 2009, but a 59% decrease in sales in the 2nd week during the year 2000 is not?


Another interesting little statistic comparing All That You Can't Leave Behind and No Line On The Horizon:

Sales in the USA after two weeks:

ATYCLB: 604,000

NLOTH: 610,000


In a market that has decline by over 50% since the year 2000, U2's new album in 2009, is actually slightly ahead of the one it released in 2000 after the first two weeks of sales in the United States.

 

[Clean187]

1.) Actually, it was a 73% drop because the official soundscan figure reported today was 132,000 in sales.

2.) Do you realize how much easier it is to obtain an album for free today once it is released compared to 4 years ago? The number of people who can and do obtain music for free has greatly increased since then. That increases the level of decline in any albums second week.

3.) Not satisfied with the BOMB example, lets try All That You Can't Leave Behind:

Sales in the first two weeks in the USA:

428,000 + 176,000

That right there is a 59% drop in sales from the first week to the second. Are you going to tell me that a 73% drop in the 2nd week sales is alarming in 2009, but a 59% decrease in sales in the 2nd week during the year 2000 is not?


Another interesting little statistic comparing All That You Can't Leave Behind and No Line On The Horizon:

Sales in the USA after two weeks:

ATYCLB: 604,000

NLOTH: 610,000


In a market that has decline by over 50% since the year 2000, U2's new album in 2009, is actually slightly ahead of the one it released in 2000 after the first two weeks of sales in the United States.

I think you're missing my point. I'm not arguing total units sold AT ALL. So we can throw every argument about that out the window. Percentage drops from Week 1 to Week 2, generally, have stayed the same from now and 8 years ago, 4 years ago, etc...55-60% fall off. It's indicative of how the casual fan is purchasing the album, and can be tell tale for it's longevity. Albums rarely, if ever, fall by 73% or more (thank you for correcting me, by the way). I know it doesn't sound that much compared to 59%, but really....it is a BIG difference.

I don't know, maybe it's just me, but is it that much easier getting free music today than in 2004? I mean, I could buy that argument if we're comparing "POP" or something earlier, but after Napster, that shit was busted wide open.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

I think you're missing my point. I'm not arguing total units sold AT ALL. So we can throw every argument about that out the window. Percentage drops from Week 1 to Week 2, generally, have stayed the same from now and 8 years ago, 4 years ago, etc...55-60% fall off. It's indicative of how the casual fan is purchasing the album, and can be tell tale for it's longevity. Albums rarely, if ever, fall by 73% or more (thank you for correcting me, by the way). I know it doesn't sound that much compared to 59%, but really....it is a BIG difference.

I don't know, maybe it's just me, but is it that much easier getting free music today than in 2004? I mean, I could buy that argument if we're comparing "POP" or something earlier, but after Napster, that shit was busted wide open.

The market has massively declined since 2004 thanks to the increase illegal downloading and other ways of obtaining music for free. There are people who did not have access to the internet in 2004, who do today.

The sales of all albums especially the top 10 best selling albums have shrunk big time since 2004.

So what type of drop would No Line On The Horizon have to of had for it NOT to be consider a BIG difference. Your claiming that 73% vs. 59% is a BIG difference. So what would not be a BIG difference?

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

Also, just a reminder of how illegal downloading and other ways of obtaining the album for free have impacted the music market, take a look at these numbers:

Top 10 selling albums in the United States released in the year 2000:

'N SYNC - No Strings Attached : 11 million
EMINEM - The Marshall Mathers LP : 11 million
THE BEATLES - 1 : 10 million
BRITNEY SPEARS - Oops!...I Did It Again : 10 million
LINKIN PARK - Hybrid Theory : 10 million
NELLY - Country Grammar : 9 million
BACKSTREET BOYS - Black And Blue : 8 million
Various Artists - O BROTHER, WHERE ARE THOU ? (soundtrack) : 8 million
ENYA - A Day Without Rain : 7 million
SHAGGY - Hotshot : 7 million


Top 10 selling albums in the United States released in the year 2008:

LIL WAYNE - Tha Carter III : 3 million
TAYLOR SWIFT - Fearless : 2,4 million
COLDPLAY - Viva La Vida or Death And All His Friends : 2,2 million
AC/DC - Black Ice : 2 million
BEYONCE - I Am... Sasha Fierce : 1,7 million
T.I. - Paper Trail : 1,6 million
METALLICA - Death Magnetic : 1,6 million
Various Artists - MAMMA MIA (soundtrack) : 1,5 million
JACK JOHNSON - Sleep Through The Static : 1,5 million
NICKELBACK - Dark Horse : 1,4 million