Flight MH370 ?? What happened?

[Earnie Shavers]

The Malaysian Govt are in a really tough position. Really, it’s out of their control and if the ‘Northern Track’ is true, it’s likely at the moment completely out of their hands. What they've really got is the waters near them (Andaman Sea stretching to and including the Bay of Bengal), the investigation of the flight crew, and that’s the end of their involvement. For the rest they’re relying on other governments who will be trying to give them nothing and playing these Malaysian officials as day to day mouthpieces for whatever political/security needs they have. They’re under huge public pressure, while privately I bet they are getting frustratingly high levels of… deliberate frustration. Australia is now leading what will almost certainly be a futile search along the ‘Southern Track’ into the middle of the Indian Ocean, and if a stolen 777 really did fly up on across several countries undetected on the 'Northern Track' whilst heading toward Central Asia with some chance of now having landed safely, that’s an issue that is waaaay above and beyond the Malaysian Minister for Transport, and will be dealt with well away from the public eye.

[Dfit00]

Anybody else suspect that the aircraft crashed in land rather than in water?

[PhilsFan]

No.

[mikal]

Originally Posted by Dfit00

Anybody else suspect that the aircraft crashed in land rather than in water?

I wouldn't be surprised if the plane broke in 3 pieces and maybe the cockpit landed in the middle of the island while the tail end landed on the other side of the island.

[Irvine511]

there's this theory:

Did Malaysian Airlines 370 disappear using SIA68/SQ68 (another 777)?

By: Keith Ledgerwood

As the search for missing flight Malaysian Airlines flight 370 drags on into the 10th day, so many questions continue to remain unanswered about how and why the airliner could have disappeared while seemingly under the control of a skilled pilot intent on making it invisible. With satellite pings showing where the plane could be after more than seven hours of flight, speculation has arisen that the plane could be on the ground anywhere along a path from northern Thailand to the border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
The major roadblock to this theory has been the insistence from India and Pakistan that their radar network showed no such unidentified aircraft entering or traversing their airspace. It would seem highly unlikely given such information that a Boeing 777 could indeed slip through undetected.

As a hobby pilot and aviation enthusiast, a theory began to form in my own mind on this 10th day as all of the latest information began to trickle in slowly through media outlets globally. After being unable to escape the idea that it may have happened, I began to do some analysis and research and what I discovered was very troubling to me!

Starting with a set of facts that have been made available publically and verified over the past few days, I first plotted MH370’s course onto an aviation IFR map which shows the airways and waypoints used to navigate the skies. I plotted the point where it stopped transmitting ADS-B information at 1721UTC. I then plotted the Malaysian military radar track from that point towards “VAMPI”, “GIVAL”, and then onward toward “IGREX” on P628 ending with where the plane should be at 1815UTC when military radar lost contact.

Nothing profound there… but then I looked to see what other planes were in the air at 1815UTC and I looked to see exactly where they were positioned in the sky and where they were flying. The picture started to develop when I discovered that another Boeing 777 was en-route from Singapore over the Andaman Sea.

I investigated further and plotted the exact coordinates of Singapore Airlines flight number 68’s location at 1815UTC onto the aviation map. I quickly realized that SIA68 was in the immediate vicinity as the missing MH370 flight at precisely the same time. Moreover, SIA68 was en-route on a heading towards the same IGREX waypoint on airway P628 that the Malaysian military radar had shown MH370 headed towards at precisely the same time.

It became apparent as I inspected SIA68’s flight path history that MH370 had maneuvered itself directly behind SIA68 at approximately 18:00UTC and over the next 15 minutes had been following SIA68. All the pieces of my theory had been fitting together with the facts that have been publically released and I began to feel a little uneasy.

Singapore Airlines Flight 68 proceeded across the Andaman Sea into the Bay of Bengal and finally into India’s airspace. From there it appears to have proceeded across India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and finally Turkmenistan before proceeding onward across Europe to its final destination of Barcelona, Spain.

This map depicts the approximate flight path of SIA flight 68 on that particular day. Additional detail will be required from each countries aviation authorities to establish exact particulars of the route.

So by now, you may have caught on or you may be scratching your head and wondering if I’ve gone insane! How does SIA68 have anything to do with MH370 disappearing?

Remember the one challenge that is currently making everyone doubt that MH370 actually flew to Turkmenistan, Iran, China, or Kyrgyzstan? That challenge is the thought that MH370 couldn’t make it through several key airspaces such as India or Afghanistan without being detected by the military.

It is my belief that MH370 likely flew in the shadow of SIA68 through India and Afghanistan airspace. As MH370 was flying “dark” without transponder / ADS-B output, SIA68 would have had no knowledge that MH370 was anywhere around and as it entered Indian airspace, it would have shown up as one single blip on the radar with only the transponder information of SIA68 lighting up ATC and military radar screens.
Wouldn’t the SIA68 flight have detected MH370? NO! The Boeing 777 utilizes a TCAS system for traffic avoidance; the system would ordinarily provide alerts and visualization to pilots if another airplane was too close. However that system only operates by receiving the transponder information from other planes and displaying it for the pilot. If MH370 was flying without the transponder, it would have been invisible to SIA68.
In addition, the TCAS system onboard MH370 would have enabled the pilot(s) to easily locate and approach SIA68 over the Straits of Malacca as they appeared to have done. The system would have shown them the flight’s direction of travel and the altitude it was traveling which would have enabled them to perfectly time an intercept right behind the other Boeing 777. Here is a picture of a TCAS system onboard a 777.

How does this solve the mystery??? We know MH370 didn’t fly to Spain! Once MH370 had cleared the volatile airspaces and was safe from being detected by military radar sites in India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan it would have been free to break off from the shadow of SIA68 and could have then flown a path to it’s final landing site. There are several locations along the flight path of SIA68 where it could have easily broken contact and flown and landed in Xingjian province, Kyrgyzstan, or Turkmenistan. Each of these final locations would match up almost perfectly with the 7.5 hours of total flight time and trailing SIA68. In addition, these locations are all possibilities that are on the “ARC” and fit with the data provided by Inmarsat from the SATCOM’s last known ping at 01:11UTC.
There are too many oddities in this whole story that don’t make sense if this theory isn’t the answer in my opinion. Why did MH370 fly a seemingly haphazard route and suddenly start heading northwest towards the Andaman Islands on P628? If not for this reason, it seems like a rather odd maneuver. The timing and evasive actions seem deliberate. Someone went through great lengths to attempt to become stealthy and disable ACARS, transponder/ADS-B (even though SATCOM to Inmarsat was left powered).

After looking at all the details, it is my opinion that MH370 snuck out of the Bay of Bengal using SIA68 as the perfect cover. It entered radar coverage already in the radar shadow of the other 777, stayed there throughout coverage, and then exited SIA68’s shadow and then most likely landed in one of several land locations north of India and Afghanistan.

Sources: SkyVector.com, FlightRadar24.com, FlightAware.com, CNN.com, Reuters.com.
-Keith L.

the mind, it reels.

[mikal]

Originally Posted by Irvine511

there's this theory:




the mind, it reels.

It's getting to the point where just a crash in the bottom of the ocean feels the most far fetched to me. Crazy!

[Earnie Shavers]

Originally Posted by Irvine511

there's this theory:

Pretty much the most terrible thing you could say given that 200+ people have (almost certainly) died + if there was any success with this there is almost certainly more trouble relating to it, but: if someone actually pulled something like that off... wow. Various pilot forums are suggesting that this is would actually be doable on paper, but in practice... even a pilot as experienced as the captain of this plane would find it difficult, plus the organisation and timing would have to be so perfect it really throws it into the realm of pretty much impossible.

Still, most likely is still that it's in the ocean somewhere, and if that's the Indian Ocean, pretty likely it will never be found. Or at least, will be a mystery for a very, very long time.

It will be interesting to see how it's publicly handled over the next few days. If misc. governments and authorities suddenly start to be leaning very heavily towards the 'Southern' arc or back to a water crash in general, without giving any reasoning for why they are so sure, it might actually suggest that they do really think it successfully went north somewhere, they have a decent idea of where/who is responsible, and they're just deliberately trying to shine the spotlight elsewhere and give the impression to 'others' that they've gotten it wrong.

[BoMac]

It's okay, everyone, stop what you're doing. Mystery has been solved.

Courtney Love Posts Theory on Missing Malaysian Flight 370 | Music News | Rolling Stone

Personally, I don't believe that's the wreckage. I think that's the work of one Charles Widmore.

[bono_212]

I...what...I...there's nothing there...right? I mean...am I the one on the crazy pills here?

[mikal]

Originally Posted by BoMac

It's okay, everyone, stop what you're doing. Mystery has been solved.

Courtney Love Posts Theory on Missing Malaysian Flight 370 | Music News | Rolling Stone

Personally, I don't believe that's the wreckage. I think that's the work of one Charles Widmore.

I think she's confusing it with doll parts.

heyo!

[Axver]

Originally Posted by Irvine511

there's this theory:




the mind, it reels.

You know a situation is really, really bizarre and unprecedented when this explanation actually seems plausible and fits the current public knowledge as well as or better than most other theories.

[anitram]

I think that theory is the most creative and intriguing but I find it hard to believe only because it would require that the pilot be a complete mastermind (according to other pilots this is much easier said than done). So unless he's like the BBC version of Sherlock, I don't know...

My prevailing theory is still that the plane went off course (don't know about motivations of pilot) and was subsequently accidentally shot down by any of a number of countries who aren't exactly prone to public disclosure.

[BoMac]

This makes a lot of sense:

A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet | Autopia | Wired.com

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by BoMac

This makes a lot of sense:

A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet | Autopia | Wired.com

i've seen this batted about today, and while i certainly have no idea, aviation-obsessed friends of mine think it's impossible for a fire capable of incapacitating the pilots would have continued to burn for 6 hours.

[U2DMfan]

Originally Posted by Irvine511

i've seen this batted about today, and while i certainly have no idea, aviation-obsessed friends of mine think it's impossible for a fire capable of incapacitating the pilots would have continued to burn for 6 hours.

Forgive my stupidity, but you mean to say your friends suggest that kind of fire would have destroyed the plane well before then?

[larry5mullen]

Originally Posted by BoMac

This makes a lot of sense:

A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet | Autopia | Wired.com

I think this might be it.

Originally Posted by Irvine511

i've seen this batted about today, and while i certainly have no idea, aviation-obsessed friends of mine think it's impossible for a fire capable of incapacitating the pilots would have continued to burn for 6 hours.

Well, perhaps the fire was put out through the efforts described in the article, but incapacitation set in for some reason and the plane just continued to fly off into the Indian Ocean. There was also an oil rig worker in the South China Sea who claimed that they saw a plane on fire in the sky.

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by U2DMfan

Forgive my stupidity, but you mean to say your friends suggest that kind of fire would have destroyed the plane well before then?

Yes. In under an hour. A fire so strong that it incapacitated the pilots would have destroyed the plane. And in other plane fires the pilots always radioed for help -- example being the Swissair crash from 1998.

[bono_212]

The Associated Press ‏@AP 5m BREAKING: Malaysia says files were recently deleted from flight simulator of pilot aboard missing jet.


Malaysia Airlines Flight 370: Some data deleted from flight simulator - CNN.com

(CNN) -- [Breaking news update 5:48 a.m. ET, March 19]
Some information has been deleted from the flight simulator found at the home of the pilot, Malaysian Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein said. Forensics is trying to recover it, he said.
At the news conference, he also said:
-- Malaysian authorities have received background information from all countries with passengers on board the plane except Russia and Ukraine. So far, no information of significance has been found, he said.
-- Malaysia has received some radar data, but "we are not at liberty to release information from other countries."
-- Reports that the plane was sighted by people in the Maldives are "not true."
"I can confirm that the Malaysian Chief of the Defence Force has contacted his counterpart in the Maldives, who has confirmed that these reports are not true," Hishammuddin said.

[Diemen]

Hishammuddin keeps using the word "confirm." I do not think it means what he thinks it means.

[anitram]

I can't help but feel absolutely terrible about the families of all the passengers. The idea that they may never get closure on what happened is just heartbreaking.