Australian 2016 Election Poll

[dan_smee]

Originally Posted by Kieran McConville

In any case, either you're right or you're wrong, mate. 'There's no other way' is awfully dogmatic talk, so if you're right, I guess I'd better pencil in an election for later this month.

Fair point - we are in unchartered waters - will be very interesting.

[Axver]

Originally Posted by dan_smee

My mistake with Lazarus, but by my count on the ABC site we are looking at about 31 between the ALP and the Greens. 3 NXT would make 34 requiring negotiations with 2 of:



-Lambie

-Hinch

-Hanson

How are you reaching this conclusion? ALP + Green will likely be 35-36, so add NXT's 3 and you've got 38-39. Or if the Libs hold government then all they need are the Greens.

But you are all getting ahead of yourselves. A new election, in the first instance, is for the House only. The House is the more governable of the two right now, as noted. To have any election for the Senate before a routine half-Senate election in 2019 will require another double dissolution. Is that worth the risk?

Anyway I am starting to think that the ALP could form government. The Libs cannot offer stability, for the knives are already out for Turnbull, and an ALP/Green/NXT Senate is more workable than a Lib + whoever they don't piss off today Senate.

[Axver]

Originally Posted by dan_smee

Fair point - we are in unchartered waters - will be very interesting.

Uncharted.

(Sorry.)

[Kieran McConville]

Aside from the vote counting, there's a game of psychological warfare being waged on the pages (so to speak) of the papers, and Shorten's surprisingly cool and collected. I would say that Turnbull is looking frankly terminal. That doesn't mean the likes of Bob Katter or maybe Cathy McGowan are going to grant supply to Labor, but it does have implications for the rest maybe.

If neither party has a majority but Labor is at a draw with the Coalition, or even just barely ahead on seats, then just wait and see.

[dan_smee]

I was just adding the state by state counts on ABC - admittedly it doesn't add up, and I am finding it difficult to get a source that gives decent info on what final numbers look like.

I am shocked to say that I loved something Derryn Hinch said about Pauline Hanson.

She is very pleasant and what comes out of her mouth is not that pleasant. She is talking about having CCTV cameras in mosques, and people go, 'Well, why don't you put it in churches to keep an eye on the paedophile priests.' Doesn't make sense.

[dan_smee]

I find it curious that ABC have 11.1 million total votes counted, yet the AEC only has 9.9. The AEC have been updating totals constantly.

Admittedly the ABC figures are totals for each party, whereas AEC is 2PP -would this indicate they haven't worked out preferences for 10% of the votes counted? Surely not as they factor in preferences during the count.


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[Kieran McConville]

I struggle to see how the ABC can know anything the AEC doesn't, despite what idiosyncratic format they choose to report it.

[Axver]

Originally Posted by dan_smee

I find it curious that ABC have 11.1 million total votes counted, yet the AEC only has 9.9. The AEC have been updating totals constantly.

Admittedly the ABC figures are totals for each party, whereas AEC is 2PP -would this indicate they haven't worked out preferences for 10% of the votes counted? Surely not as they factor in preferences during the count.


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The first preference count is done first, then a TCP/TPP count. So ABC figures may be from the former?

[dan_smee]

Originally Posted by Axver

The first preference count is done first, then a TCP/TPP count. So ABC figures may be from the former?

It is done first, but not in its entirety before then going to preferences. Otherwise we would have no preference info yet. With the wait for postals yesterday, I would have thought preference counting would be just about up to date.


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[cobl04]

Counting day. Maybe Turnbull will make another hissy fit speech today.

[Vlad n U 2]

Pauline Hanson: Sunrise admits paying senator for TV appearances

[cobl04]

We already knew that. Sickening.

[Vlad n U 2]

I'm (partly) glad it gives me more shit to heap on Kochie, all the time.

[Kieran McConville]

So there's a (slim) chance Oakeshott might come back in Cowper, apparently. Another kinda-maybe for Labor (I know what you're going to say, but if lending Labor his support last time was unforgivable, voters had every chance to put the guy last this time

[Kieran McConville]

Also, finally some light is shed on the AEC results page. It is not a prediction of projected wins, it is simply a record of who is leading currently in the counts for all the seats.

[cobl04]

NASA just put a hunk of metal into the orbit of Jupiter with a one second margin of error and we won't know the election result for weeks.

[KhanadaRhodes]

i sadly have nothing to contribute (spoken like a true american amirite) but i at least had to share this: on the first, i got an email from the alp. i've never received anything from them from what i can remember. all i can figure is maybe at one point i signed some petition they did or something and got put on some random mailing list.

[cobl04]

Save Medicare, Khan

[KhanadaRhodes]

i need my own health insurance first

 

but seriously i read the email and i was like dang...students here don't get stipends or anything. the only way you get a stipend is if you're on some special scholarship

__________________

[cobl04]

Without some serious soul searching, the Greens will never move beyond the 10% plateau

I'm butthurt, there's no doubting. But this - from a former Greens staffer - is really worth reading.