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Refugee
Yes, people may be cutting back on the number of shows they go to, but there are smaller number of shows that they can actually attend.
Which still means fewer repeat customers than during the Vertigo Tour.
Yes, people may be cutting back on the number of shows they go to, but there are smaller number of shows that they can actually attend.
Very good post -- demographics are shifting a lot: for Vertigo I went out three times, my kids were 6 months and thankfully Grandma helped out -- actually, she had to since I paid for her to see U2 in San Diego at 62 with her grandsons and my Dad, but I digress. My kids are now 5 -- sports and such take up their life and my time and money too. Oh yes, and my wife tolerates me and U2, but in this economy, it will be one show, maybe two or I am abstinent by force for a long time.
I have not seen an answer to one question posed -- the average US stadium will be aorund 65,000 fans -- bigger in some markets, a tad smaller in others.
I believe it is way too early to call this album a commercial success - one week of sales? Please, maybe we should talk in a month -- not likely, but for all we know sales could fall off of the cliff after week 3; in part because I, like others, do not hear a ton of radio friendly hits on this album, and that will hurt sales, despite critical success in my opinion.
All that said, big city markets will likely sell out or come close regardless of the economy -- smaller markets like Norman, might struggle to sell 40K tickets -- a lot will depend on pricing and promotion.
Which still means fewer repeat customers than during the Vertigo Tour.
It also means the 90% of people who went to night two in x city will now be going to night 1 since that is the only show. In addition, some cities are being skipped on the first leg, which will force both night 1 and night 2 attendance in that city into x city with just one show.
Most US arenas only hold about 20,000 fans max per show, totalling 40,000 tickets. Not even accounting for repeat customers who attended both shows, let's assume 90% of them go this time to the stadium show (which is too high a percentage, I believe), which equals 36,000 fans. Where is U2 going to get the other 20,000 fans to fill these stadiums?
I would not presume that the majority of fans in cities that are being skipped on the first leg will travel to the next closest city to see them.
Will large numbers of Vertigo Denver 1 & 2 fans and Salt Lake City fans drive to Norman or Phoenix because they're getting skipped this Fall? I doubt it.
U2 did 78 arena shows in the United States and Canada in 2005. At each show there were nearly 5,000 tickets sold that were $160 dollars. Thats 390,000 tickets at $160 which comes out to $62,400,000. Divide $62,400,000 by $250 and you get 249,600 tickets. With the 16 North American shows that have been announced, that works out to 15,600 $250 tickets per show. So, I'd say they will do just find with having 10,000 tickets at that price per show, given that there are only 16 shows on this leg, and likely will not be more than 20 in North America for this leg in 2009.
On what are you basing these assumptions?
I suspect that there aren't a ton of people who will pay $250 to see U2 in a stadium, certainly not 10,000 people per night.
I suspect that there aren't a ton of people who will pay $250 to see U2 in a stadium, certainly not 10,000 people per night.
Your forgetting that of the 78 Arena shows that U2 did on the Vertigo Tour in 2005, 73 of them soldout within minutes or hours after going on sale. The other 5 only had seats BEHIND the stage remaining after the first day. About 1,450,000 people attended those 78 shows, BUT there were many people who did not attend because they could not get a TICKET. Plus, there are only 16 shows currently scheduled for North America. 1,450,000 divided by 16 is 90,625. No its not a fully accurate comparison, but it does give you an idea about the fact that when you have x number of fans, but a smaller number of shows, its easier to fill them.
I doubt the AZ show sells out. The stadium here holds 80,000 plus the recession is pretty bad in this state. I'll probably have to miss out again.
I'm assuming that U2 will do 25 shows in North America, as they suggested they would before the tour date announcement. You well know that they aren't only doing 16 shows here, so your 90,625 figure is nowhere near accurate.
Plus, you optimistically assume all 1,450,000 tickets that were sold here for Vertigo will all come back again... that's 100%. That will definitely not happen. That 1,450,000 number does not even account for the many thousands of tickets that were sold to only one person who went to multiple shows. Plus, arena shows are far preferrable to North American fans than stadium shows, so demand will drop off simply because of the type of venue that is being used this time.
I hope you are correct, I hope that U2 sells out every single stadium and makes loads of cash, but without a reduction in ticket prices, I don't see it happening.
GA tickets for the two Vertigo Glendale shows could be had for $10 outside the arena before the shows began, such was the weak demand, even though both shows were "sold out"
I doubt the AZ show sells out. The stadium here holds 80,000 plus the recession is pretty bad in this state. I'll probably have to miss out again.
Tickets will be easy to come by this tour in the USA. Obviously Chicago, Boston, New York, Toronto will be strong but I would be very surprised with new dates added for any stadium considering the economic conditions.
As far as their CD sales, by comparsion when Coldplay’s “Viva la Vida or Death and All His Friends" topped the U.S. pop chart with sales of 721,000 copies in June 2008, the title cut was on its way to hitting No. 1 on the U.S. singles charts.
U2 doesn't have the star power of an anthem like Viva on this record. So 484,000 is solid but nowhere near their last release or Coldplay's, but more similar to their earlier album releases.
40% of the tickets being sold at these stadium shows are $55 dollars or less.
Since when is selling out two shows in Glendale considered "weak demand"? Just because scalpers can't get rid of their tickets right before the show does not mean demand is "weak". The majority of fans who would like to attend a show but can't get tickets through normal channels do not show up the day of the show attempting to buy from scalpers.
This is a serious question, not an attempt at bashing US concert-goers. Since Elevation and Vertigo played lots of arenas across a geographically wide area, could it be that fans in N America have become a little complacent in (relatively speaking) not having to travel such great distances to see concerts? Perhaps I'm making too much of a connection here, but a lot of the pessimism about the new dates seems to be linked to there not being scheduled shows in 'obvious' cities / regions. In other words, it's as if people are thinking "They're not coming near me, so I'm not prepared to / can't afford to travel a bit further afield, or I'll wait until 2010 when they're bound to tour more extensively" etc. I know that fans on this site are clearly more than casual in terms of interest and commitment, and so it's not fair to generalise. But, if so many people seem willing to travel from N America to Europe (specifically Dublin) to see U2, would they be equally prepared to travel a bit further within the continental US? I don't know, just throwing it out there.
The thing that's really surprised me so far is the pessimism surrounding U2's return to N American stadiums....
I don't see how they can't sell out.
Its their best album in ages and every available ticket on the Vertigo tour sold out.
Seriously, if they don't sell out, U2 should just stop touring the US.
Yeah, and only play in Ireland and Denmark
You're very diplomatic, Morgoth, but I agree: North American U2 fans are spoiled.
That's what happens when your favorite band plays 15 arena shows within 3 hours' driving distance of your house (if you live in the northeast).
Paul McCartney selling 4000 tickets in 7 seconds for a Vegas show cannot be compared to U2 having to sell 80,000 cheaper ducats in Phoenix. You can bet that a large percentage of those McCartney tickets were snatched up by brokers, who will probably make a killing scalping those things to rich, 60 year old Beatles fans who were smart enough to move their 401Ks to cash in October 2007, but missed the McCartney onsale because they were too slow in typing the captcha words.