https://twitter.com/ememess/status/1497240774479474691?s=21
This is their base that they have to feed or fear their party will never regain power
This is their base that they have to feed or fear their party will never regain power
US Politics XXXIV: Biden Against the Manchine (Live at the Sinema)
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Bluer White
New Yorker
For all its parallels, Ukraine war feels distant in Taiwan
https://apnews.com/article/russia-u...china-taiwan-8a0b9cf325f5b1f4c5e49a5be58b013f
TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — The Russian attack on Ukraine has put a spotlight on another place that could face an invasion by its larger neighbor, as some analysts draw quick comparisons to China’s threats to assert its control over self-ruled Taiwan.
While similarities exist and Taiwan is a democracy that has defied a more powerful authoritarian government, the differences are much greater. And for many on the island, the war in Ukraine, and war in general, feels far away.
......The critical question for Taiwan is whether the United States, which is not sending troops to defend Ukraine, would intervene if China invaded. The U.S. has no official ties with Taiwan but has historical relations and sells Taiwan billions of dollars worth of weapons. It is also bound by its own law to ensure Taiwan can defend itself.
Taiwan is also a dominant player in the production of semiconductors that are used in everything from smartphones to cars.
“Taiwan’s economy and technology is important to the U.S., and perhaps the U.S. will value Taiwan more, but we have to see how the conflict plays out,” said Kao-Cheng Wang, a professor at the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and strategic studies at Tamkang University in Taiwan.
....China has not ruled out force if necessary to achieve reunification, but for now, military action remains unlikely and outside events will have relatively little effect on Beijing’s calculations, said Li Minjiang, a Chinese international relations expert at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University.
“External influences on China’s decision over Taiwan are minimal,” Li said, adding China would continue to use information campaigns and peaceful inducements to influence public opinion on Taiwan.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is different from Xi and has previously used force against other countries, such as neighboring Georgia, said Wang, the Tamkang University professor. “Xi Jinping is rather strong, but he increased military activity, rather than starting a war.”
A little more positive take on Taiwan, given what's happening in Eastern Europe.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-u...china-taiwan-8a0b9cf325f5b1f4c5e49a5be58b013f
TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — The Russian attack on Ukraine has put a spotlight on another place that could face an invasion by its larger neighbor, as some analysts draw quick comparisons to China’s threats to assert its control over self-ruled Taiwan.
While similarities exist and Taiwan is a democracy that has defied a more powerful authoritarian government, the differences are much greater. And for many on the island, the war in Ukraine, and war in general, feels far away.
......The critical question for Taiwan is whether the United States, which is not sending troops to defend Ukraine, would intervene if China invaded. The U.S. has no official ties with Taiwan but has historical relations and sells Taiwan billions of dollars worth of weapons. It is also bound by its own law to ensure Taiwan can defend itself.
Taiwan is also a dominant player in the production of semiconductors that are used in everything from smartphones to cars.
“Taiwan’s economy and technology is important to the U.S., and perhaps the U.S. will value Taiwan more, but we have to see how the conflict plays out,” said Kao-Cheng Wang, a professor at the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and strategic studies at Tamkang University in Taiwan.
....China has not ruled out force if necessary to achieve reunification, but for now, military action remains unlikely and outside events will have relatively little effect on Beijing’s calculations, said Li Minjiang, a Chinese international relations expert at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University.
“External influences on China’s decision over Taiwan are minimal,” Li said, adding China would continue to use information campaigns and peaceful inducements to influence public opinion on Taiwan.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is different from Xi and has previously used force against other countries, such as neighboring Georgia, said Wang, the Tamkang University professor. “Xi Jinping is rather strong, but he increased military activity, rather than starting a war.”
A little more positive take on Taiwan, given what's happening in Eastern Europe.
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LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
The good news about Taiwan is that their military is far more equipped and far more modern than Ukraine. Invading them would not be as easy, nor would securing air or naval superiority. We’ve armed them with modern arms.
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LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
To be clear, while they’re still much smaller than China, it takes way more resource to invade a country when you need to go toe to toe with modern technology in the air and sea. China would still undoubtedly defeat Taiwan, but they’d first have to down some 300 modern multirole fighter jets and a mid-sized naval fleet. That’s a far cry from Ukraine’s 20-30 semi-modern multirole fighters and non-existent navy.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
there's also obviously a major difference between being invaded from direct land borders on 3 sides of your country, versus being an island with 100 miles of ocean separating you from your enemy.
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Vlad n U 2
Blue Crack Addict
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Yeah
41 million folks living in a free European country, not knowing what the next day might bring. Hard to believe here in 2022.
If your definition of 'free' is being the poorest country in Europe, where millions live in poverty, elections are often decided by local oligarchs and political progressivism (as in Russia) is quashed - then sure.
But make no mistake this is a terrible, catastrophic event and the Russian state (not people) deserve to suffer for it.
dazzledbylight
Blue Crack Supplier
I'd rather have the "bare minimum" than nothing at all.
And we're currently stuck with Manchin, and Sienema.
At least, they prevent Majority Leader McConnell. Though he, the repugs, drump & his minions still do their damage.
Of course we can always (and should do) more. We can always do better! "Keep on pushing" as the song goes.
As for climate change (shudders) - I'd never call myself an activist, but I do call myself a long term semi-activist of around 50 yrs.
Spent a fair amount of time in the early-mid '80's on Renewable Energies. Too FEW people paid attention!
As for The Squad, hopefully they'll hang in there. ??????
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LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
How crazy is it that Petro Poroshenko came out of self imposed exile in Poland to roam the Kiev streets with an AK47 to fight for his country?
That certainly is one way to earn your honor back.
That certainly is one way to earn your honor back.
MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
It turns out that small man narcissists who only care about themselves really are extremely dangerous after all. Who would have thunk it?
Bluer White
New Yorker
Major signal sent by Germany.
In Policy Shift, Germany Now Says It Will Send Ukraine 1,500 Anti-Tank, Antiaircraft Missiles
https://www.rferl.org/a/germany-military-aid-ukraine-equipment/31725290.html
In Policy Shift, Germany Now Says It Will Send Ukraine 1,500 Anti-Tank, Antiaircraft Missiles
https://www.rferl.org/a/germany-military-aid-ukraine-equipment/31725290.html
Bluer White
New Yorker
The trick is avoiding attacks on any supply line coming from the West, and inside a NATO border. That's opening a whole new can of worms that everyone, except Mr. Putin maybe, is trying so hard to prevent.
Bluer White
New Yorker
Agreed.
One example: SWIFT sanctions on Russia aren't easy to put in place....likely why the initial action has been delayed a few days.
It takes time to target the right entities and the right banks. And obviously the U.S. doesn't push the buttons for the system. It all needs to be negotiated with the stakeholders. Many of the transactions between Russia and Europe have nothing to do with the war, so Europe would want to tread lightly. For now.
Vlad n U 2
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He's a piece of shit, there's no way we 'gotta hand it to him' - probably hoping it means he won't get attention on him for his treason trial.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
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LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
I didn’t say that?
Though I think if the dude actually does stay and fight, he does re-earn some honor. Doesn’t forgive him for his crimes or stop him from being put on trial.
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LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
I know our content is probably biased on Twitter, but it’s amazing to see how foolish Russian advances look. Small units/convoys of foot soldiers wandering into urban areas with no heavy armor. Just squads foot trialing an armored car. Sitting ducks, one ambush and they’re all dead. I suspect that’s exactly what’s happening…
Bluer White
New Yorker
As the urban fighting likely escalates in the next few weeks (or months?)...and Mr. Putin keeps issuing his threats to the entire West,
you begin to wonder when something might happen to his hold on power inside the motherland. Before this whole thing goes beyond the tragedy in Ukraine.
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LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
Vlad n U 2
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LuckyNumber7
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For sure, they’re probably being sent in first to be slaughtered as a first wave.
But what I was referring to was their infantry marching formations, which surely has some level of command associated with it. They’re walking behind armored vehicles in city streets in tight.
I’m certainly no military buff. I’d question Dave here… would it not make more sense to march wide along the sides of the buildings and not all on top of one another? One grenade or Molotov or window gunner and that’s 10 dead soldiers. Sitting ducks.
This is sort of the same thing with the convoys coming from Russia and Belarus. Just long long lines of stop and go traffic. Seems to me like that’s begging to choke your supply lines and potentially get bombed. One tactical hit and your motion is stopped for hours.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
first, i can assure you they aren't being sent in to be "slaughtered in the first wave", they aren't fighting over the somme in 1916 lol.
it just comes down to experience. nobody in the entire russian army, except for maybe a couple really old officers who still remember chechnya in the 90s, has any experience with an invasion like this. the only other time in this century that russia invaded another country like this was in georgia in 2008 (ukraine 2014 wasn't really an invasion), and that was a tiny country that didn't resist. ukraine is huge and defiant.
this is an army of very young conscripts with shitty training and shitty equipment, trying to operate in an unfamiliar and hostile area, who have been poorly briefed on their mission. a lot of times they don't even seem to know that they're in ukraine, let alone have clearly-defined objectives and timetables for achieving them. the chain of command obviously has a plan but they didn't communicate it to the lower ranks, so a lot of what you're seeing is "my commander told me to drive south, but i don't know why or what i'm doing when i get there, or what to expect along the way" - that kind of shit is inevitably haphazard and sloppy. and then throw in that you've got a hostile civilian population that's changing road signs and giving deliberately bad directions to fuck up your movements, and your movements are gonna get fucked up. then you have a traffic shit show trying to get back onto your original route.
i think it's also important to note that when you're a private driving in a military convoy, you always follow the vehicle in front of you, even if you know they're going "the wrong way". you don't know if orders have been changed, if there's an issue with the original route, and you don't want to get separated and isolated (aka easily killed), so you have to follow the guy in front no matter what. you drive a few km's the wrong way before the sergeant in charge of the convoy realizes, then everybody has to halt in place while command figures out how to get back on route (or what the new route is)... it takes a really long time, even in peace time - i can confirm this from experience, i don't think i was ever in one single convoy in my whole military career that didn't get lost and/or confused and had to pull over for a while, and that was on clearly-marked canadian roads and highways. in a hostile, unfamiliar environment? forget about it. and yeah it is a good way to get your shit blown up if you're fighting a competent enemy with a powerful air force. ukraine is definitely competent but they don't have the air power to bomb the russian convoys like that and make a big logistical impact, and the russians know it.
walking in formation tight along the walls of a city street is actually one of the worst things you can to, btw. walls channel bullets along them, or can spray fragments and spalling as shrapnel if you're standing too close. if someone is firing straight down the street at you, you actually are something like 5x more likely to get hit standing against the wall than you are standing in the deadass middle of the road. if there's no cover, a couple feet away from the wall is ideal. but if you have an armoured vehicle to cover behind then that's definitely what you want to do. bullets aren't getting through that. as for the risk of someone dropping something on you, that's just an inherent part of urban combat. theoretically you could send teams ahead to clear the upper floors of every building on your route, but that's not practical in terms of time and effort. it's better and more efficient to just keep moving and stay vigilant and deal with it if and when you do get attacked.
btw the US army did a lot of this kind of dumb shit too during the invasion of iraq. operational experience inevitably leads to improvements over time. some lessons of war can only be learned by fighting in one.
it just comes down to experience. nobody in the entire russian army, except for maybe a couple really old officers who still remember chechnya in the 90s, has any experience with an invasion like this. the only other time in this century that russia invaded another country like this was in georgia in 2008 (ukraine 2014 wasn't really an invasion), and that was a tiny country that didn't resist. ukraine is huge and defiant.
this is an army of very young conscripts with shitty training and shitty equipment, trying to operate in an unfamiliar and hostile area, who have been poorly briefed on their mission. a lot of times they don't even seem to know that they're in ukraine, let alone have clearly-defined objectives and timetables for achieving them. the chain of command obviously has a plan but they didn't communicate it to the lower ranks, so a lot of what you're seeing is "my commander told me to drive south, but i don't know why or what i'm doing when i get there, or what to expect along the way" - that kind of shit is inevitably haphazard and sloppy. and then throw in that you've got a hostile civilian population that's changing road signs and giving deliberately bad directions to fuck up your movements, and your movements are gonna get fucked up. then you have a traffic shit show trying to get back onto your original route.
i think it's also important to note that when you're a private driving in a military convoy, you always follow the vehicle in front of you, even if you know they're going "the wrong way". you don't know if orders have been changed, if there's an issue with the original route, and you don't want to get separated and isolated (aka easily killed), so you have to follow the guy in front no matter what. you drive a few km's the wrong way before the sergeant in charge of the convoy realizes, then everybody has to halt in place while command figures out how to get back on route (or what the new route is)... it takes a really long time, even in peace time - i can confirm this from experience, i don't think i was ever in one single convoy in my whole military career that didn't get lost and/or confused and had to pull over for a while, and that was on clearly-marked canadian roads and highways. in a hostile, unfamiliar environment? forget about it. and yeah it is a good way to get your shit blown up if you're fighting a competent enemy with a powerful air force. ukraine is definitely competent but they don't have the air power to bomb the russian convoys like that and make a big logistical impact, and the russians know it.
walking in formation tight along the walls of a city street is actually one of the worst things you can to, btw. walls channel bullets along them, or can spray fragments and spalling as shrapnel if you're standing too close. if someone is firing straight down the street at you, you actually are something like 5x more likely to get hit standing against the wall than you are standing in the deadass middle of the road. if there's no cover, a couple feet away from the wall is ideal. but if you have an armoured vehicle to cover behind then that's definitely what you want to do. bullets aren't getting through that. as for the risk of someone dropping something on you, that's just an inherent part of urban combat. theoretically you could send teams ahead to clear the upper floors of every building on your route, but that's not practical in terms of time and effort. it's better and more efficient to just keep moving and stay vigilant and deal with it if and when you do get attacked.
btw the US army did a lot of this kind of dumb shit too during the invasion of iraq. operational experience inevitably leads to improvements over time. some lessons of war can only be learned by fighting in one.
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Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
Very interesting. Thank you for the post.
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LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
I suspected there was a catch with walking along the walls, but I still don’t understand bunching up like that. It screams sitting duck.
Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
Great, Roger Goodell is going to take away a first round draft pick from New England after he hears about Sisolak's run in with a patriot.
Do the democrats think it’s a great idea to have a response to the SOTU tonight? Apparently there’ll be two of them (three if you count GQP)
A single, unified message. This is how the Right is able to continue to hold on despite having no fucking platform or ideas. We are lucky right now their message didn’t quite stick for 2020, but it was more getting rid of Trump that lost it for them
https://twitter.com/grace_panetta/status/1498643202210947073?s=21
Edit, there’s three dem responses
A single, unified message. This is how the Right is able to continue to hold on despite having no fucking platform or ideas. We are lucky right now their message didn’t quite stick for 2020, but it was more getting rid of Trump that lost it for them
https://twitter.com/grace_panetta/status/1498643202210947073?s=21
Edit, there’s three dem responses
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jesus christ they're so fucking dumb
https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1498646860843659269?s=21
https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1498647246937722888?s=21
I do think the Right wing messaging plays a part in this. Much like all of our cities are burning from BLM and ANTIFA!, these organizations have shat on Biden and the recovery from the second it was signed in 2021
But this is also a really shitty job of messaging by the Dems. Chuck and Nancy take an incredible amount of abuse from the right (and a lot from the left) and they’ve done some good things but they’re so fucking stuck in an old world and it shows. Trump and the GOP are playing a different game when it comes to messaging, mostly they don’t give a fuck what they say because the media and our attention will be distracted within a day If they say something dumb and/or horrendous (or they give speeches with white nationalists)
It does seem to be a rigged and unfair game but the Dems are relying so much on policy talk and I’m not sure the country has ever been that smart ? It definitely isn’t right now.
It’s so tiring to repeat these cycles. Dems fix a broken economy and country, can’t figure out how to message and celebrate it, GOP takes over and wipes it away
Except this time there’s the Supreme Court so slanted the wiping away of women and minority rights could take generations to win back, if at all
https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1498647246937722888?s=21
I do think the Right wing messaging plays a part in this. Much like all of our cities are burning from BLM and ANTIFA!, these organizations have shat on Biden and the recovery from the second it was signed in 2021
But this is also a really shitty job of messaging by the Dems. Chuck and Nancy take an incredible amount of abuse from the right (and a lot from the left) and they’ve done some good things but they’re so fucking stuck in an old world and it shows. Trump and the GOP are playing a different game when it comes to messaging, mostly they don’t give a fuck what they say because the media and our attention will be distracted within a day If they say something dumb and/or horrendous (or they give speeches with white nationalists)
It does seem to be a rigged and unfair game but the Dems are relying so much on policy talk and I’m not sure the country has ever been that smart ? It definitely isn’t right now.
It’s so tiring to repeat these cycles. Dems fix a broken economy and country, can’t figure out how to message and celebrate it, GOP takes over and wipes it away
Except this time there’s the Supreme Court so slanted the wiping away of women and minority rights could take generations to win back, if at all
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