I’m coming from raw numbers and campaign modeling and forecasting. The effects of the recent changes in polling have done very little to improve Bloomberg’s chances, which are very little. Unless Joe Biden miraculously drops out before Super Tuesday, which... he won’t... another competitor in the race splitting the share at third or fourth place does nothing but divide the votes. Forecasts pretty much didn’t budge on Sanders being the favorite and didn’t budge on Bloomberg getting anything over a percent or so. They all have seen Biden in free-fall, and they’ve all seen that exchange prop up a stronger likelihood of a brokered convention. We are now sitting at a near 75% chance of either Sanders or a brokered convention.
In the last week betting averages went from Bloomberg 15% Sanders 41% to Bloomberg 23% to Bernie 42%. So over the last week, Bloomberg has had an over 50% gain. If Sanders gets tangled up in a very close 1/2 finish tomorrow night, it could start to get a bit tricky for him.
Bloomberg has 3 more weeks to carpet bomb the super tuesday states, with plenty of staff on the ground. Bloomberg has the ability to get traction in states that Bernie usually would do the best in, and someone like Biden wouldn't.
Again, so much for Bloomberg is dependent on who leaves the race and when. But I think Bernie has a ceiling . There is a lot of talk about "lanes" in the race. And right now there is a Bernie lane and a not Bernie lane.
This doesn't bode well for Sanders. I would guess that whenever there is a drop out, 75% of those voters eventually shift to Bloomberg, if not more. Because they would have been with Bernie at this point if they wanted to. But they chose any other candidate but him.
Why do I say eventually? Ok, we know the bottom ones will drop soon. Bennet, and Yang. and Patrick.
Steyer will drop out after super Tuesday as hopefully Tulsi will.
I predict that Amy and Pete will also call it quits post super tuesday.
That's 20 points, probably 15 going to Bloomberg, and 5 to Sanders.
Biden and Warren are question marks. Their departure will depend on how they do this month, and its unclear their future right now.
But they will drop out. There's another 35 points. 25 to Bloomberg 10 to Sanders
Putting Bloomberg at around 55% and Bernie at 45%
Much like the split between Hillary and Bernie
Yes this is all conjecture. Bloomberg could crash and burn in the debates. Bernie could have another health issue. Who knows. But I think we all can agree that at this point, all those people will drop out, unless some miracle happens with Biden, and he survives through super tuesday. Not likely. Praying he gets pummeled in the next few weeks.