Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
yes, definitely, it's a distraction and a way to try to run against AOC in 2020 by tying her to Nancy Pelosi.
it's strategy, but i don't think it's a good one -- it comes at a cost. every time he goes full racist, more white women in suburbia will decide to stay home or vote Democrat. he's not trying to expand his base, he's trying to excite them so they show up ... but there's an equal and opposite reaction.
i don't want to be overly optimistic, but in a time of what seems like unstoppable economic momentum, an incumbent should sail to reelection. Trump is still more likely to lose than win.
i found this analysis interesting:
With 16 Months to go, Negative Partisanship Predicts the 2020 Presidential Election - Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy - Christopher Newport University
key analysis:
it's strategy, but i don't think it's a good one -- it comes at a cost. every time he goes full racist, more white women in suburbia will decide to stay home or vote Democrat. he's not trying to expand his base, he's trying to excite them so they show up ... but there's an equal and opposite reaction.
i don't want to be overly optimistic, but in a time of what seems like unstoppable economic momentum, an incumbent should sail to reelection. Trump is still more likely to lose than win.
i found this analysis interesting:
With 16 Months to go, Negative Partisanship Predicts the 2020 Presidential Election - Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy - Christopher Newport University
key analysis:
Barring a shock to the system, Democrats recapture the presidency. The leaking of the Trump campaign’s internal polling has somewhat softened the blow of this forecast, as that polling reaffirms what my model already knew: Trump’s 2016 path to the White House, which was the political equivalent of getting dealt a Royal Flush in poker, is probably not replicable in 2020 with an agitated Democratic electorate. And that is really bad news for Donald Trump because the Blue Wall of the Midwest was then, and is now, the ONLY viable path for Trump to win the White House.
[...]
Trump’s second problem is that along with a turnout surge of Democrats that in many states like Virginia is simply larger than the turnout surges of Republicans because of demographics, he is deeply unpopular among Independents because of all the abnormal, norm-breaking and according to the Mueller Report, even illegal things, he does as president. This has left him with , who largely broke against Republicans in the 2018 midterms as my theory predicted. In a follow-up piece to this forecast, I will show that much of this swing among Independents is actually the product of their own turnout surge, which brought more left-leaning Independents out to the polls by the same negative partisanship mechanisms that moved their partisan counterparts. This is why even the Democrat’s sharp drift to the left as they chase their party’s nomination, following the Republicans down the path of ideological polarization won’t have the impact on the vote choice of Independents Republicans are hoping for in 2018.
At the end of the day, Independents will be asked to weigh what Democrats might do against what Republicans, particularly Trump, are doing; the reverse situation from 2016 when Democrats suffered from the referendum effect among Independents. Even if the Democrat’s nominee is unabashedly liberal, it is not likely Trump can win a referendum among college-educated Independent voters without a dramatic transformation in both tone and style.