I heard about the budget being passed on NPR today... wow. This is scary, and sad, stuff.
Aygo, do you think there is any chance of revolutions in Southern Europe, given prolonged economic stagnation or further contraction?
I tend to be extremely cautious about thinking in revolutionary terms, but from all that I can tell, this is the stuff of revolutions.
I seriously believe that something will happen soon (and "soon" can be tomorrow or within 2/3 years, but yes, I do think it will).
What's happening now in Southern Europe (and soon in France and other countries of Central Europe because everyone's contaminated) is not socially sustainable for a long time.
It is not socially sustainable throw out the window, in the blink of an eye, a construction of decades, especially with regard to the concept of welfare state and to what it means in terms of prosperity and peace. The welfare state has been for decades the "social glue" in all European countries and for Europe it self. Ending it suddenly, to require sacrifices that people know it will not have another result besides impoverish them seriously and by force, to tell people this is all them fault, to have people like Merkel (people they have not chosen or elected) to dictate it all... All this is to ask people to rebel.
Spain and Greece are with unemployment rates of 25%, and of the total unemployed population 50-55% are younger than 30 years (16% total, 37% under 30). What country and society that is able to handle this? None.
Do not forget, moreover, that the Arab Revolts / The Arab Spring began the very same reason (despite having different political regimes at the time): absence of prosperity, unemployment (especially among young people) high, the absence of a light at the end of the tunnel.
I have no doubts that portuguese, italian, spanish, greek (and even french) are mediterranean peoples and, for that reason, we're all culturally way closer to northen african countries than to central/northern european countries (even if they're mostly muslim and we're heavily catholic, there cultural similarities are huge).
It wouldn't surprise me if, within the next 5 years, something similar (or with the same importance) with the Arab Spring would happen in Southern Europe... With all the consequences to the EU project.
You have the case of Hungary. It's scary, very scary, but no one talks about Hungary. And the EU doesn't care about it.
Hungary is today a fascist regime. Orbán's party changed the Constitution [and, frighteningly, the motto of the new Constitution is exactly equal to that of the Portuguese Constitution during the Salazar regime: God, Country and Family]. Orbán's party criminalized socialist and communist parties; they arrested the leaders of the opposition parties in demonstrations; to be homeless on the streets is forbidden and they use homeless for free/forced jobs in public works; they did shut down radios and other media related with the biggest opposition party. In Hungary an opinion polling revealed that one 30% of the Hungarians eventually(!) thinks about going to vote, because they don't care about politics anymore.
P.S.: We're not having economical stagnation. We're having a prolonged recession. For you to have an idea, in 5 years Greece lost almost 25% of their GDP. Portugal almost didn't grow since 2000 and between 2010 and 2013 we're gonna lose 10% of our GDP, going back to the levels of the late 1990's. How can we pay a debt of 124% of our GDP (next year) - a debt most of it not created by us - if the economy is being killed and doesn't generate richness to pay a single coin?