Time to make your predictions, now that we've got a lengthy residency done and dusted and a core setlist is clear. The show will obviously evolve and songs will come and go, but at the moment there is a static 18-song core, which is really a 19-song core when you consider that City of Blinding Lights seems to have cemented its position as the encore opener. But what will fall out of favour? What will go into rotation?
So far, the following songs have been played at all 12 shows of the IE Tour:
Then there's COBL with 10/12 shows, and the remaining 19 songs (half of the total of 38 songs played) have been done at 50% of shows or fewer. There are 10 songs that have only appeared once or twice. You can make that twelve if you count the two songs done only at the Roxy.
By comparison, eight songs were played at all 110 shows on 360, with three more missing just 1-2 shows (a total of 61 songs were played across the whole tour):
On Vertigo, ten songs were played at all 131 shows, and an eleventh missed just four (a total of 60 songs were played across the whole tour):
On Elevation, six songs were played at all 113 shows, and four more missed only 1-3 shows (a total of 51 songs were played across the whole tour):
Over the last three tours, there has been a general pattern of 10 or 11 songs being played at every show (or essentially every show). By setting my leeway for "every" show as missing five shows, nothing is narrowly excluded thanks to missing six shows. The closest to the cutoff are I Still Haven't Found and Magnificent, which both missed 14 shows on 360; Kite missed 15 shows on Elevation; and the Vertigo Tour has a distinct gap with the next song past the cutoff being With or Without You, which missed 27 shows. With a decent gap like that, it means a song experienced at least one of three things: 1. it was dropped late (e.g. Magnificent on 360), 2. it entered rotation for a period (ISHFWILF on 360), or 3. it was not originally in the setlist but became a regular when it showed up (Kite on Elevation and WOWY on Vertigo).
The "permanent" fixtures that nonetheless missed 1-5 shows were either cut because of curfews (e.g. MOS missing a couple of shows on 360), or were subject to an experimental drop/rotation that the band quickly backed away from (e.g. SBS being rotated for Pride at two 360 shows before the band found another spot for Pride).
So place your bets of which songs will be played at every show on I+E. If anybody cares to return to this thread after the end of tour to see who got closest, we'll call your guess correct if the song only missed five shows or fewer. That means no song can be added to the setlist at this stage and meet the criteria for effective permanence, as it will have already missed 12 shows.
So far, the following songs have been played at all 12 shows of the IE Tour:
· Beautiful Day (12 times)
· Bullet The Blue Sky (12 times)
· Cedarwood Road (12 times)
· Even Better Than The Real Thing (12 times)
· Every Breaking Wave (12 times)
· I Will Follow (12 times)
· Invisible (12 times)
· Iris (Hold Me Close) (12 times)
· Mysterious Ways (12 times)
· Pride (In The Name Of Love) (12 times)
· Raised By Wolves (12 times)
· Song For Someone (12 times)
· Sunday Bloody Sunday (12 times)
· The Miracle (Of Joey Ramone) (12 times)
· Until The End Of The World (12 times)
· Vertigo (12 times)
· Where The Streets Have No Name (12 times)
· With Or Without You (12 times)
· Bullet The Blue Sky (12 times)
· Cedarwood Road (12 times)
· Even Better Than The Real Thing (12 times)
· Every Breaking Wave (12 times)
· I Will Follow (12 times)
· Invisible (12 times)
· Iris (Hold Me Close) (12 times)
· Mysterious Ways (12 times)
· Pride (In The Name Of Love) (12 times)
· Raised By Wolves (12 times)
· Song For Someone (12 times)
· Sunday Bloody Sunday (12 times)
· The Miracle (Of Joey Ramone) (12 times)
· Until The End Of The World (12 times)
· Vertigo (12 times)
· Where The Streets Have No Name (12 times)
· With Or Without You (12 times)
Then there's COBL with 10/12 shows, and the remaining 19 songs (half of the total of 38 songs played) have been done at 50% of shows or fewer. There are 10 songs that have only appeared once or twice. You can make that twelve if you count the two songs done only at the Roxy.
By comparison, eight songs were played at all 110 shows on 360, with three more missing just 1-2 shows (a total of 61 songs were played across the whole tour):
· I'll Go Crazy If I Don't Go Crazy Tonight (111 times) [it was played twice at Barcelona 2 - once as remix, once in traditional form]
· Beautiful Day (110 times)
· City Of Blinding Lights (110 times)
· Get On Your Boots (110 times)
· One (110 times)
· Vertigo (110 times)
· Walk On (110 times)
· Where The Streets Have No Name (110 times)
· With Or Without You (109 times)
· Moment of Surrender (108 times)
· Sunday Bloody Sunday (108 times)
· Beautiful Day (110 times)
· City Of Blinding Lights (110 times)
· Get On Your Boots (110 times)
· One (110 times)
· Vertigo (110 times)
· Walk On (110 times)
· Where The Streets Have No Name (110 times)
· With Or Without You (109 times)
· Moment of Surrender (108 times)
· Sunday Bloody Sunday (108 times)
On Vertigo, ten songs were played at all 131 shows, and an eleventh missed just four (a total of 60 songs were played across the whole tour):
· Vertigo (170 times)
· Beautiful Day (131 times)
· Bullet The Blue Sky (131 times)
· City Of Blinding Lights (131 times)
· Elevation (131 times)
· One (131 times)
· Pride (In The Name Of Love) (131 times)
· Sometimes You Can't Make It On Your Own (131 times)
· Sunday Bloody Sunday (131 times)
· Where The Streets Have No Name (131 times)
· Love And Peace Or Else (127 times)
· Beautiful Day (131 times)
· Bullet The Blue Sky (131 times)
· City Of Blinding Lights (131 times)
· Elevation (131 times)
· One (131 times)
· Pride (In The Name Of Love) (131 times)
· Sometimes You Can't Make It On Your Own (131 times)
· Sunday Bloody Sunday (131 times)
· Where The Streets Have No Name (131 times)
· Love And Peace Or Else (127 times)
On Elevation, six songs were played at all 113 shows, and four more missed only 1-3 shows (a total of 51 songs were played across the whole tour):
· Beautiful Day (113 times)
· Elevation (113 times)
· One (113 times)
· Stuck In A Moment You Can't Get Out Of (113 times)
· Sunday Bloody Sunday (113 times)
· Where The Streets Have No Name (113 times)
· Bullet The Blue Sky (112 times)
· Until The End Of The World (112 times)
· Walk On (112 times)
· New York (110 times)
· Elevation (113 times)
· One (113 times)
· Stuck In A Moment You Can't Get Out Of (113 times)
· Sunday Bloody Sunday (113 times)
· Where The Streets Have No Name (113 times)
· Bullet The Blue Sky (112 times)
· Until The End Of The World (112 times)
· Walk On (112 times)
· New York (110 times)
Over the last three tours, there has been a general pattern of 10 or 11 songs being played at every show (or essentially every show). By setting my leeway for "every" show as missing five shows, nothing is narrowly excluded thanks to missing six shows. The closest to the cutoff are I Still Haven't Found and Magnificent, which both missed 14 shows on 360; Kite missed 15 shows on Elevation; and the Vertigo Tour has a distinct gap with the next song past the cutoff being With or Without You, which missed 27 shows. With a decent gap like that, it means a song experienced at least one of three things: 1. it was dropped late (e.g. Magnificent on 360), 2. it entered rotation for a period (ISHFWILF on 360), or 3. it was not originally in the setlist but became a regular when it showed up (Kite on Elevation and WOWY on Vertigo).
The "permanent" fixtures that nonetheless missed 1-5 shows were either cut because of curfews (e.g. MOS missing a couple of shows on 360), or were subject to an experimental drop/rotation that the band quickly backed away from (e.g. SBS being rotated for Pride at two 360 shows before the band found another spot for Pride).
So place your bets of which songs will be played at every show on I+E. If anybody cares to return to this thread after the end of tour to see who got closest, we'll call your guess correct if the song only missed five shows or fewer. That means no song can be added to the setlist at this stage and meet the criteria for effective permanence, as it will have already missed 12 shows.