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Old 09-09-2020, 12:32 PM   #641
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https://twitter.com/natashabertrand/...877492224?s=21

Maybe years from now we find out the truth of what really happened in 2016 election.

We know that Russians were able to hack into voting systems in every state. What we don’t know is what did they do, or not do.
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Old 09-09-2020, 12:56 PM   #642
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https://twitter.com/brianstelter/sta...27882523602946
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Old 09-09-2020, 12:56 PM   #643
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what i'm still struggling to get nervous about is the numbers.

Trump cannot go above 46%. he never has. he's usually around 42%. there are no meaningful third parties this year. he's an incumbent. he cannot and will not break 50%.

yes, the electoral college is fucked up and makes it necessary for a D to win the popular vote by 3-4% to win. but at 46%, you're still losing by 5%+.

i know: Russia. voter suppression. but there are D governors in WI, PA, MI, and even NC.

and there's no Hillary to project evil fantasies upon. Biden is literally unhateable. sure, he's uninspiring, and he's old. but can you honestly hate Joe Biden?

i suppose i can come up with a nightmare scenario where enough uneducated whites tip the scales again in the rust belt, while the diversity and increasingly educated suburbanization of TX, GA, AZ, and NC isn't quite enough to get us there ... but Trump pulled off a miracle last time, with major assists from the Russians and James Comey.

how could he do it again?
Rachel Bitcoffer is a great source on Twitter to get some good analysis. I also would highly recommend G. Elliott Morris as probably my favorite poll analyst.

That said, this is a great post. Especially the focus on overall percentage. Right now, Biden is sitting at about 51 and Trump at 43. That is Trump's best number since... the spring. Which makes sense. At this point in the race is when we will start to see consolidation of the undecideds. Trump was never going to stay at 41% til November. But I still think it will be difficult for him to get past 45%. We have around an avg of 4-5% undecided, with about 2-3% of the rest being taken up by third party.

So let's say Trump does well and manages to get to 45% by splitting the rest of the undecideds, and Biden not as well and gets to 52%. (+2-3 third party)

That's about where I see the race narrowing to by late October. My guess is that Biden will be up around 6.5 points. If third party voters end up waning a bit, we may see a bit tighter at 46-52 (+1-2 third party). Either way. As long as Biden has a 5+ point lead, he is in safe territory.

I also think that Biden will do a bit better than expected through the midwest states. I think MI and WI will end up being strong. I think MN will be won by about 4-6 points. And while PA is concerning right now, I think Biden will end up winning a couple points higher than the polls say at that point.
I also think Biden will pull off NC, but only by a point or less, and I am keeping my eye on GA. I think it may be a surprise. I'm hoping we see a Biden win, and if he does pull it off, I'm guessing it will be like MI in 2016 with around 10,000 votes or something.
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Old 09-09-2020, 12:59 PM   #644
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There's plenty of more tapes too.

praising Kim Jong Un - saying how he tells him everything, even in detail how he killed his uncle. (WTF)

Saying that believing "white privilege" exists is drinking the kool-aid

All of my fucking generals are idiots and a bunch of pussies

Just a couple that I've heard so far.
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Old 09-09-2020, 01:08 PM   #645
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Cult45 wanted named sources. Woodward one ups them and brings out the tapes.
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Old 09-09-2020, 01:10 PM   #646
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Do you think releasing these tapes back in March would have saved lives? Or would we still find ourselves at the same spot ?
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Old 09-09-2020, 01:28 PM   #647
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Do you think releasing these tapes back in March would have saved lives? Or would we still find ourselves at the same spot ?


Donald Trump is the effect, not the cause unfortunately. Personally, I believe he was already in too deep to be able to lead his pack of followers into any form of responsibility, were they to have to share that responsibility with LiBRulZ
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Old 09-09-2020, 01:29 PM   #648
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I think at least it would have avoided the mask wars we fought in the first two months.
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Old 09-09-2020, 02:05 PM   #649
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Do you think releasing these tapes back in March would have saved lives? Or would we still find ourselves at the same spot ?
We'd be better if he would have been public about how bad it is from day one. Zero question.

Would it have solved every issue? Obviously not. But it would have helped.
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Old 09-09-2020, 02:09 PM   #650
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It’s amazing how somewhat competent he sounds talking to Bob.

While he is a buffoon, his actions towards covid (and everything) were malicious. It was always about how it would affect him
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Old 09-09-2020, 02:29 PM   #651
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Dr. Fauci: "The president is on a different channel and unfocused in meetings. Rudderless leadership. His attention span is like a minus number. His sole purpose is to get reelected."
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Old 09-09-2020, 04:08 PM   #652
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https://twitter.com/robertjdenault/s...27662729506817
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Old 09-09-2020, 04:09 PM   #653
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It’s amazing how somewhat competent he sounds talking to Bob.

While he is a buffoon, his actions towards covid (and everything) were malicious. It was always about how it would affect him
he's a con man.

he's very aware of what he's doing.
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Old 09-09-2020, 04:15 PM   #654
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https://twitter.com/leahmcelrath/sta...968870405?s=21

I don’t know how many more chances we are going to get as a collective species in avoiding nuclear war
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Old 09-09-2020, 10:47 PM   #655
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Just so we're clear. Sitting down for 18 separate interviews that you are aware are being recorded by a journalist, that you know, writes for a living, is now known as a "political hit job"
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Old 09-09-2020, 10:50 PM   #656
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he's a con man.

he's very aware of what he's doing.
He's aware of his actions and his lies and how to communicate best in order to brainwash the raging masses. But a smarter con man would not be recorded revealing his con to his marks.
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Old 09-09-2020, 10:55 PM   #657
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He's aware of his actions and his lies and how to communicate best in order to brainwash the raging masses. But a smarter con man would not be recorded revealing his con to his marks.
Some criminals deep down want to get caught.
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Old 09-09-2020, 11:34 PM   #658
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Just so we're clear. Sitting down for 18 separate interviews that you are aware are being recorded by a journalist, that you know, writes for a living, is now known as a "political hit job"


Fox’s prime time North Korean lineup is throwing Lady G under the bus for brokering the Woodward interviews.

Because that’s what a cable news host should do — get mad at a Senator for encouraging the president to talk to a reporter.
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Old 09-09-2020, 11:52 PM   #659
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Just a little update on the first mail in ballots.

In NC, ballots went out on Friday the 4th. We had a holiday weekend, and they have received about 1,000 returned ballots by Tuesday the 8th.

I think the best we can hope for from the USPS bullshit, is that almost all voters know that turning the ballot in as early as possible is necessary. Many I think will drop them off instead of mailing, and I think many may even go in person. Also, the earlier they send them back the better for Biden. The more that come in while he is still at a sizable lead nationally and leading in every purple swing states, and nearly tied in a few pink states. Who knows what debates will bring, or if something else comes out of left field that changes the race.

27 states will be sending out ballots in the next 6 to 10 days. Those include GA, MI, MN, PA, TX and WI.
Then almost all the rest about 5-10 days after that.
Even early in person voting starts in less than 2 weeks in some states.
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Old 09-10-2020, 12:01 AM   #660
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Oh, yeah, i forgot. Thank you for Trump reading out the list of possible judges you want to appoint today. Dems never mention it, so thank you for bringing that up for us, and seeing what other nightmares are in store if you remain in office. Oh - and fuck you.
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