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Old 01-10-2017, 03:17 PM   #201
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it's the exact same thing as your sunspot theory. conservative media is giving you the excuse you want to disregard the news you don't like.

Actually is it's my degree in Meteorology that is giving me the excuse to disregard the scientific narrative when it has conveniently been hijacked by political motivations.

In the 1970s scientists were warning of the next impending Ice Age. Then we had 15 years to save the Earth in 2000 from impending coastal flooding caused by Global Warming. When that didn't pan out let's call it Climate Change so we can cover all our bases and blame every extreme event on people. One Climatologist I believe at Colorado State agreed with the general warming trend but went on record saying extreme events such as tornados, hurricanes, blizzards on a yearly cycle had no correlation. (On the elliptical phone typing so I don't have the link handy). Because he strayed in a minor step from the official narrative he was blasted as a Climate heretic.

Basically the Alarmists have been abandoning the scientific method for 40 years and putting the cart ahead of the horse. Seeking the desired answer before successfully proving the hypothesis. Look no further than their waffling on messaging and tweaking of data at East Anglia. You cannot get traditional funding anymore for a Climate study that doesn't put the carbon narrative first. Galileo probably faced the same resistance to the 97% of scientists and the clergy agree that the sun revolves around the Earth. Probably a higher percentage.

Let's put it this way I'm giving myself 35% that you are right about Trump mocking the reporter because of his disability.

What percentage will you give me as a critical thinker that carbon is a much smaller factor than what you currently believe?


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Old 01-10-2017, 03:34 PM   #202
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yes, Exxon scientists are really just modern day Galileos.

i can agree that climate science is complex, but i will not agree that carbon isn't directly causing the globe to heat at an alarming rate. i will not agree that there's a "cabon narrative" nor that it's remotely appropriate to call someone a capital-A Alarmist. you even write in the language of right wing media (narrative, Alarmists, "blasted as a Climate Heretic") about something you have a degree in, as well as present a climate summary of the past 40-years that reads straight out of a Daily Caller article.

why?

i'm really not trying to be nasty, i promise, but it still beggars belief that you'll only give 35% that Trump *was* mocking the reporter. it's right there! it's plainly evident! he said, "YOU SHOULD SEE THIS GUY!" if that isn't enough evidence then i don't know what we could give you on climate science when every sentence you write reads like WND.
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Old 01-10-2017, 03:54 PM   #203
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Basically the Alarmists have been abandoning the scientific method for 40 years and putting the cart ahead of the horse. Seeking the desired answer before successfully proving the hypothesis. Look no further than their waffling on messaging and tweaking of data at East Anglia. You cannot get traditional funding anymore for a Climate study that doesn't put the carbon narrative first. Galileo probably faced the same resistance to the 97% of scientists and the clergy agree that the sun revolves around the Earth. Probably a higher percentage.
Interesting you say this. Where are the papers that contradict the 97%? I find it humorous that you suggest modern science has abandoned the scientific method. I have a planetary sciences background, with perhaps not as well of a grasp for earth's atmosphere as you but probably a better grasp for atmospheres generalized.

To suggest there's a "carbon narrative" is silly. There are many players in atmospheric change, not just carbon dioxide. What I don't get about your argument is the overall simplicity of how you just outright reject it. There's research associated with why it's real. Do you think scientists and clergymen (lol) had the same abilities in Galileo's time as they do now? No. Scientists back then were effectively philosophers in so many aspects. That's why the church was able to be so involved. The notion that the research isn't there for your side is ridiculous. Most works do indeed utilize a scientific method and go in without an answer and come out with a conclusion or suggestion. None of them suggest altering the composition of an atmosphere is impact-less. Why? Climate science in depth is complex, but superficially you're disagreeing with simple thermodynamics. Chemistry disagrees with you, entirely.

Also, when did you become a historian? Are you sure over 97% of scientists in Galileo's era believed in an earth centric model? Or is that just how history was dictated to you, much like how Christopher Columbus was the only one to believe the earth was a sphere in his time?
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Old 01-10-2017, 04:03 PM   #204
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Oregoropa, thanks for the kind comments earlier and please believe I respect you not hiding, giving long answers, and being generally decent.
Re climate change, it seems one of your central platforms for your beliefs is that you are well educated in these things, with a degree in meteorology.
Your logic seems to be that a/ I have a degree therefore my opinion is worthy, and b/ here is some evidence to back up my opinion.

The issue with that is pretty obvious. If it's qualifications and evidence that wins the debate, I'm afraid the vastly more qualified climate scientists around the world, with their huge swathes of evidence, win hands down.

Now, as pretty much always (not with the disabled reporter, you're wrong on that one) I agree with some of your point. Hell yes advocacy groups have used and abused climate change. Reporters (i was a science reporter for years at a major newspaper) generally report on what they're given by the establishment on these things. Hysteria sells etc. You're right.

But that doesn't make the scientists wrong.

I don't KNOW anything about climate change, despite being a clever guy who has interviewed climate scientists many times and has a degree in archaeology. All I know is what I've read, what others have told me. I presume you're the same and you haven't done any of your own research?
But those whose job it is to know, they are pretty unequivocal.

Re Trump mocking people... I watched the clip and I see your argument. It is possible, yes, to reach the conclusion that his arms movements are generic and not specific.
But being possible (most conspiracy theories are feasible) doesn't make it likely. In this case I think it's absurd that, given what he said, his facial expressions, the man he was mocking and the context of this (which I will get to next) that a clever person would believe Trump wasn't mocking the man's disability.

Right, Trump's context. This is the big one which, respectfully, I think you've fallen for. Trump is a liar. That's a central part of his pysche. He's also a bully.

I'm no pyschologist, so this is just me - take it as you wish - but I have observed a trend with bullies: they tend to attack in others the thing they are most insecure about in themselves.

With Trump, his attacks are constantly around TRUTH. The election will be rigged. Crooked Hillary. Lying Ted. The media is dishonest. Etc etc etc.

He is always attacking people for their honesty.

Trump himself is a habitual liar. No matter how you shake it, he lied throughout his campaign. He never prefaced his 'Hillary will be in jail' stuff with context, ie, 'now this is me exaggerating here, but...'

He lied. He lied about tons of things which even you have since said were meant as some sort of scene setters, as statements of intent and positioning, not facts. But without clearly stating that, whcih he didn't, they're just plain, vanilla, ordinary lies.

Re the disabled reporter. Trump LIED about seeing, with his own eyes, parades of muslims celebrating in the streets re Sept 11. He lied. It wasn't a mistake, or a slip. It was a lie.

And as is his way, he tried to provide covering fire for his own lies by attacking truth in others. In this case a report from this particular reporter.

But here's the thing mate It's irrelevant what that reporter said, as Trump said he'd seen the muslim celebrations with his own eyes. He's deflecting, and you're falling for it. And I don't feel at all patronizing saying this but, to me, you seem way better than that.

He is basically saying, ok I got the details wrong (when he actually lied) but this reporter here said the same thing (he didn't, actually - read the original report) and then the media evil bad guy super villains made him change his tune, they are so dishonest, I am a plain speaker, vote for me.

There is NO LOGIC there. No courage or character.

He told a lie, got caught, and then smeared others to try and distract from his embarrassment.
You'd have to be foolish to fall for it.

I'm NOT saying you'd have to be foolish to vote for him. You live there, I don't, and I understand there was a massive feeling of discontent re Washington, the establishment, trade deals etc. Ok, fair enough.

But surely people don't need to fall for such elementary school antics.
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Old 01-10-2017, 05:18 PM   #205
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(BREAKING - CNN)Classified documents presented last week to President Obama and President-elect Trump included allegations that Russian operatives claim to have compromising personal and financial information about Mr. Trump, multiple US officials with direct knowledge of the briefings tell CNN.
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Old 01-10-2017, 05:37 PM   #206
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Just read this. What's the legal situation re postponing a president's inauguration?

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Old 01-10-2017, 05:39 PM   #207
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(BREAKING - CNN)Classified documents presented last week to President Obama and President-elect Trump included allegations that Russian operatives claim to have compromising personal and financial information about Mr. Trump, multiple US officials with direct knowledge of the briefings tell CNN.
This, once again, is my shocked face.
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Old 01-10-2017, 05:40 PM   #208
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He's going to be in office. I don't see what good it does to keep holding out for wild situations that might prevent his inauguration.
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Old 01-10-2017, 05:49 PM   #209
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when is enough enough? honestly. we have essentially a Russian spy installed in the Oval Office. can we just pull the plug on this nightmare and have a do-over?
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Old 01-10-2017, 05:51 PM   #210
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i'm really not trying to be nasty, i promise, but it still beggars belief that you'll only give 35% that Trump *was* mocking the reporter. it's right there! it's plainly evident! he said, "YOU SHOULD SEE THIS GUY!" if that isn't enough evidence then i don't know what we could give you on climate science when every sentence you write reads like WND.
Nothing in life is a certainty. I'm curious as to what your 'hedging your bets' percentage is on the possibility that Anthropogenic Climate Change could be wrong. Any inkling of doubt will establish that you are not here to protect the narrative at all costs, and will earn a measure of additional respect from me. You probably had a percentage feeling of Hillary winning the day before the Election. Might be wrong but I thought you had a post that said you had an uneasy Brexit feeling.

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Oregoropa, thanks for the kind comments earlier and please believe I respect you not hiding, giving long answers, and being generally decent.
Re climate change, it seems one of your central platforms for your beliefs is that you are well educated in these things, with a degree in meteorology.
Your logic seems to be that a/ I have a degree therefore my opinion is worthy, and b/ here is some evidence to back up my opinion.
I understand questioning my approach, where it seems like it is Oregoropa versus the world. Having academic contacts and colleagues, I would place meteorologists-climatologists I know at a 50-50 split on the hard stance of settled science. I know I cannot prove this with a full-on census of opinions from an article. There are many more scientists with an open mind than is put forth in the prevailing reporting. I can dig up some dissenting studies, where people have put their names on the line. Iron Horse has a Climate Change revisited thread. I will post some of the long-form citations in there. Plenty of deep inside-baseball analysis.

The science has become a political football. That is what I am addressing in this forum. Once an issue has become politicized, its important to analyze all the moving parts and characters leading the charge on each side of the argument. It's a project in itself to distill the science away from the self-reinforcing circulatory system of money, influence, communications, and power.

I have personally witnessed a friend have his ceremonial title of State Climatologist of Oregon stripped by political forces in the state legislature because he bucked the prevailing logic. He had a personal feud with a rival researcher in the Pacific Northwest that resembled Edison vs. Tesla. They were attacking and trash talking each other.

10 years ago the Weather Channel employed an Earth Scientist named Heidi Cullen who went on record proposing that broadcast meteorologists should be stripped of their AMS certification if they were skeptics. This was a personal affront to 400 professional holders (myself included) coming from a scientist technically outside of the field. These internal struggles are worthy of a book, that maybe will be published one day.
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Old 01-10-2017, 05:58 PM   #211
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He's going to be in office. I don't see what good it does to keep holding out for wild situations that might prevent his inauguration.
This has been such an unusual, bizarre, and unpredictable election cycle, though. And if we learn that the information Russia has on Trump involves impeachable offenses of some kind, it's not out of the realm of possibility to wonder about such things. I'm with Irvine in that it'd be great if we could just have a complete do-over, but if we can't do that, I think it's worth at least examining whatever options we do have. This whole Russia business in general is really not a good thing for Trump to have hanging over his head as he's about to take office, and there's so much about his shady connections to the country and Putin that are troubling. Even if it doesn't prevent him taking office, I could see it meaning he won't actually stay president for long.

Whatever happens, though, I too am not surprised by these allegations.

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I understand there was a massive feeling of discontent re Washington, the establishment, trade deals etc. Ok, fair enough.

But surely people don't need to fall for such elementary school antics.
Exactly. I too understand the frustration with the establishment, but going to the complete opposite end and supporting somebody who not only has zero political experience, but has also shown a blatant ignorance and lack of understanding of the issues and the job of the presidency itself is not the solution to that particular problem.

And regardless of how experienced a politician somebody is, if they run a campaign blaming immigrants/gay people/black people/non-religious/non-Christian people/women/etc. for all the country's current ills, that should be the first clue that they're not worth taking seriously. That is nothing more than the politician's attempt to distract people from realizing that they have no actual viable plan to help the country. It's a tactic we've seen time and time and time and time again, and while it might elect those politicians to office, it sure as hell doesn't solve any of the country's problems.
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:09 PM   #212
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I find it interesting that everybody refers to this discontent in Washington as a main driver of the election results and yet the vast majority of Congress was re-elected when they are clearly the absolute worst offenders. ESPECIALLY the Republicans in Congress who did nothing but obstruct and go on vacation for 8 years.
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:11 PM   #213
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He's going to be in office. I don't see what good it does to keep holding out for wild situations that might prevent his inauguration.

That's how I see it.

But this intel thing doesn't sound like it's to keep him out of office. It sounds like a way to throw up a red flag about Trump's relationship with Russia.
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:13 PM   #214
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Dude is the most illegitimate president even before taking office.
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:37 PM   #215
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I also don't understand Oregoropa's pathological need to tie the left to the media, "our" precious media, etc. Hello? The media in the US is the most bland, centrist-right media you will find in the developed, western world. Like suddenly now, the networks are breeding grounds for progressive thought?

The left has been complaining about the media relentlessly since the early days of George W Bush! Did you sleep through the last 15 years?
Agreed. I can only really think of the UK media as being similar - in the west.
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:43 PM   #216
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I mean who hasn't hired prostitutes to urinate on a bed once used by the President of the United States.
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:55 PM   #217
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I mean who hasn't hired prostitutes to urinate on a bed once used by the President of the United States.


We shouldn't pay attention to what Trump says and does. We should pay attention to what Kellyanne Conway says is in his heart.
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:55 PM   #218
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I find it interesting that everybody refers to this discontent in Washington as a main driver of the election results and yet the vast majority of Congress was re-elected when they are clearly the absolute worst offenders. ESPECIALLY the Republicans in Congress who did nothing but obstruct and go on vacation for 8 years.
This, too. Exactly.
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Old 01-10-2017, 07:16 PM   #219
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Have you guys read the leaked report re alleged Trump/Russia matters?

It's...ridiculous. I mean parts are just so absurdly insane and yet I can absolutely see them being true. Like the part where he purposely went and rented out the presidential suite of the Ritz Carlton in Moscow because the Obamas had stayed there on official business previously, then hired multiple local prostitutes to do golden showers (urinate on the bed) in front of him so as to defile the place where the Obamas slept. I lost count at 4 separate sources that allegedly confirmed this story.

I think we can all agree that if this is true, if there is a God we'll never have to see the photos.
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Old 01-10-2017, 07:23 PM   #220
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Of course it's not true; he is a fine upstanding Christian man.

According to non-fake media; we're going to have our first EVER Christian inauguration, and we can say Merry Christmas again. Obama banned that don't you know? This isn't fake news, this is the white working class news.


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