I don't know if this has already been covered, but in case you are paying attention to the electoral vote, here is what's crucial:
If Bush wins Ohio and Florida, which he won in the last election, he will win again in this election. However, those states are really, really, really close. If Kerry wins one of those states, odds are he wins the elecition. Say if Kerry wins Ohio, the only way Bush can win is if he makes up for it by winning several close states such as Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, and Minnesota. That scenario is highly unlikely, so if Kerry can pull off Ohio or Florida, the election is probably his. On the other hand, if Bush somehow manages to win Pennsylvania, he will almost certainly win the election. However, even though Pennsylvania is pretty close right now, I don't see Bush winning it.
Overall, with my gut feeling, Kerry is going to win the election.