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Old 05-28-2020, 08:09 PM   #241
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And California reports its biggest single day # of new cases after ticking up the last couple of days. Like I said - it was evident that they were not on a good path as of last weekend and now it's looking more clear. Along with them a bunch of other states in the southeast. The NY tri-state area continues to look reasonably good and heading in the right direction.
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Old 05-28-2020, 09:50 PM   #242
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It's unsettling that LA County has reached testing saturation yet our percentage of positive tests has increased 1-2% compared to last week. It's still lower than it was two weeks ago and prior, but it is increasing. I don't know what demographics and institutions are being emphasized in testing though, compared to previous weeks. We now require testing of everyone at skilled nursing facilities as of today.

This lockdown has gone on forever, but it was only followed closely for a week or two because of the crappy weather. Our mobility rates aren't that different from Sweden's and the trends look about the same. I doubt there is a New York City-esque surge coming anytime soon, but the virus' reproductive rate isn't going to drop far enough to see any real improvement with everything reopening and people getting bored with staying inside.

My thing is like...just wear a mask. That's it. Mobility hasn't been curbed that much in South Korea or Hong Kong because they all wear masks. It's part of their culture and has been for decades. Just don't be a stubborn asshole and you'll get to go out sooner.
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Old 05-28-2020, 11:45 PM   #243
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I heard a lot of issues at the border with people coming across and causing spike in cases.

But that’s probably just a slice of it all.

When lockdown happened the weather sucked. Now it’s perfect and people are saying fuck it.

Masks have been pretty good here. I’d say 90% of the people i see wear one
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Old 05-29-2020, 09:20 AM   #244
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My thing is like...just wear a mask. That's it. Mobility hasn't been curbed that much in South Korea or Hong Kong because they all wear masks. It's part of their culture and has been for decades. Just don't be a stubborn asshole and you'll get to go out sooner.
This.

We have so much evidence from places that were early adopters of masks or places that insisted on masks in public as a condition of re-opening and it is all positive.

But you have a segment of the population (not just in the US, they're up here too though less vocal) who would cut off their nose to spite their face.
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Old 05-29-2020, 02:43 PM   #245
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People are all up in arms about contact tracing too. That it's government overreach and spying and control. I wonder how they would feel if Trump was on board with it? Everything Trump does is ok with some people.

I'm not a fan of the govt knowing my private business either, and I think we should all have concerns about that. But I sure want to know if I've been in contact with a positive person, and I sure want to diminish this virus.

Technology already gives the govt so much information. Cameras are everywhere.
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Old 05-29-2020, 02:47 PM   #246
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Just want to thank you again
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anitram for your academic experience in the field
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Old 05-29-2020, 03:05 PM   #247
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The problem with contact tracing is that America is so privatized as it is, that there's almost no way to implement it without those things just remaining constants even as we move past this. Some big business is going to implement it and build a huge infrastructure around it, and then lobby to ensure they can continue to make money off of it. It's like how the Democrats now just rubber stamp the Patriot Act. None of these things are ever temporary measures.
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Old 05-29-2020, 04:19 PM   #248
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Contract tracing should be easy, just re-program that spy we all have in our homes named Alexa to do it.
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Old 05-29-2020, 05:09 PM   #249
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Contract tracing should be easy, just re-program that spy we all have in our homes named Alexa to do it.
Or get that damn Obama to do it since he’s so good at spying!!!11
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Old 05-29-2020, 06:08 PM   #250
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That's riiiiight!!1!111111
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Old 05-29-2020, 06:38 PM   #251
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Just want to thank you again
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anitram for your academic experience in the field
Of course, glad to help
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Old 05-30-2020, 12:42 AM   #252
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Welp - June 8th Stage 1 NYC opening
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Old 05-30-2020, 07:13 AM   #253
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So here's how this plays out... in two weeks we see a major should in case across major cities.

Trump blames it on the protests, Democrats, George Soros and Hillary Clinton and shuts the country down again because this time it's beneficial to him since he has an event to blame.
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Old 05-30-2020, 08:05 AM   #254
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It's not enough for there to be an increase in cases anymore, even a significant one. Of course cases are going to go up. Why wouldn't they? This was not initially about case numbers, it was about isolating the mildly sick and offering resources to the gravely ill. The lockdown made that more than a faint possibility.

Unless there is a NYC esque scenario where major cities like LA, Chicago, Dallas, Miami, etc experience hospital surges that result in tens of thousands of new deaths per city, rolling back the lockdown would be a disaster politically and economically.

The sad reality is that the current lockdown was a failure because our citizens are stubborn idiots and their leaders largely let them down. No unity, no clarity, no plan. Some lives were preserved, but 3 months have passed and where are we? Daily deaths are down by about half of where they were at the peak and continue to slowly drop. We're pulling in about 7,000 fewer cases a day than we were early April. But the virus hasn't gone anywhere. And, frankly, people just don't care anymore. The protests showed how quickly a worldwide pandemic of all things can become old news.

The only option is to move forward and hope that habits caused by familiar CDC guidelines will keep the spread from overwhelming communities. We know what works now and have the data to back it up. ENFORCE masks, don't just encourage them. Develop contact tracing. Expand testing. Allow people to live their lives while making them take the guidelines seriously. Personally, I'm keeping my ass indoors for now.
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Old 05-30-2020, 08:08 AM   #255
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I'm merely stating that the administration will use the protests as a way to shift the blame from the initial botching of the pandemic.


Ohhh hey, I did a great job, shutting off CHINA and we were reopening - but the Democrats disregarded this so they could destroy property and make life hard for our wonderful police officers - so they really left me no choice.
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Old 05-30-2020, 08:20 AM   #256
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I can think of many ways that could backfire terribly. He was always able to use states' rights as a scapegoat for the lockdown and place the responsibility on governors while acting like a friend of the people and local businesses, but he forfeits that if he starts enacting lockdowns himself.

As incredibly frustrating and inconvenient as it would be, I welcome him alienating part of his base.
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Old 05-30-2020, 08:23 AM   #257
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When did logic and reason start to play into their thought process?

He's about enemy making - and his base will go along with it if he's the one making the proclamations.
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Old 05-30-2020, 09:19 AM   #258
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It’s amazing how Trump supporters believe that shutting off travel from China apparently saved us from losing 1.5-2m people. And that if Biden were president he would have been hamstrung by political correctness and continued to allow flights.

I do think the center will not hold for Trump. Burning cities upset the suburbanites, but it seems much more likely that this will be part and parcel of “Trump’s America” rather than Gen Z Antifa running amok.
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Old 05-30-2020, 09:27 AM   #259
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Science: most of the cases came from Europe

Trumpists: CHINA!!!

Science: yes, sure, but actually it was euro...

Trumpists: CHINESE VIRUS!!!

Science: It doesn't really matter what we say does it?

Trumpists:
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Old 05-30-2020, 10:22 AM   #260
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LemonMelon View Post
It's not enough for there to be an increase in cases anymore, even a significant one. Of course cases are going to go up. Why wouldn't they? This was not initially about case numbers, it was about isolating the mildly sick and offering resources to the gravely ill. The lockdown made that more than a faint possibility.

Unless there is a NYC esque scenario where major cities like LA, Chicago, Dallas, Miami, etc experience hospital surges that result in tens of thousands of new deaths per city, rolling back the lockdown would be a disaster politically and economically.

The sad reality is that the current lockdown was a failure because our citizens are stubborn idiots and their leaders largely let them down. No unity, no clarity, no plan. Some lives were preserved, but 3 months have passed and where are we? Daily deaths are down by about half of where they were at the peak and continue to slowly drop. We're pulling in about 7,000 fewer cases a day than we were early April. But the virus hasn't gone anywhere. And, frankly, people just don't care anymore. The protests showed how quickly a worldwide pandemic of all things can become old news.

The only option is to move forward and hope that habits caused by familiar CDC guidelines will keep the spread from overwhelming communities. We know what works now and have the data to back it up. ENFORCE masks, don't just encourage them. Develop contact tracing. Expand testing. Allow people to live their lives while making them take the guidelines seriously. Personally, I'm keeping my ass indoors for now.

One of my best friends back in Des Moines said that one of his neighbors was throwing a block party last night. Hired a food truck, band, and inflatable bounce thingy for the kids. By end of the night there were over 100 people that came out.

Now outdoor transmission isn’t as likely but what a big middle finger to everyone else who’s trying to be safe. My friends wife is a germaphobe who won’t go outside during this. Basically married to Howie Mandel....and for her to see all these people congregating in her street and around her house had to be a bit much.

People don’t care anymore. Their minds either think we overreacted or that the virus is somehow gone.

I think we’ll see a steady line of 15-25k cases a day, with 500-1500 daily deaths all summer.

If we go into the school year and fall with no real infrastructure in place (test, trace, isolate) than fall will be a repeat of Spanish flu.

Of course thats assuming Trump hasn’t nuked most of the country out of hurt feelings
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