I think U2 will either come away with 1 award or as many as 6. I have a feeling that Feb. 27th could be a another sweep, but my heart tells me they won't end up batting .500. Then again, I suppose they could recieve 2 or 3.
1)Their best bet is Album of the Year. India Aire is unknown and because of that stigma she will not stand a chance in this category. Dylan may surprise, but I doubt he'll win. Outkast is too urban for this mainstream award. O' Brother Where Art Tou? is too country for the mainstream.
My odds:
U2--------EVEN
Arie------50-1
Dylan-----4-1
O Brother-20-1
Outkast---100-1
2)Record of the Year: I'm still stunned to find India Arie with so many nominations considering how few had actually heard of her before the 4th of January. Outkast is too urban for this award. Train could pull it off, but their album didn't get rave reviews. That could drive 'rock loving' voters in U2's direction. Additionally, Walk On became the alternative American Anthem throughout the days following 9/11 and that doesn't hurt when people are trying to pick a song that represents the past year in music. Therefore I think it's a competition between U2 and Keyes with the Irish having an early lead.
My odds:
U2-----------4-1
Keyes--------3-1
Outkast------15-1
Arie---------50-1
Train--------7-1
3)Song of the Year: Train's "Drops of Jupiter" sounds like an overrated, Elton John ballad from 1973, plus don't forget the bad reviews the album recieved. This award tends to go to established acts. Train are not "Grammy" material. Nelly Furtado's hit was a exactly that, but does anyone really think it will win? No, and it won't. India Arie's Video...do I need to reiterate my case against India Arie? I didn't think so. Once again, that leaves U2 and Keyes. If U2 wins for Walk On, I can see Stuck taking this trophey. Will voters mark U2 across their ballots? Unlikely. Which makes me reconsider my prediction for Record of the Year. I think U2 will hurt themselves by having two different songs nominated in these similar categories. I give it to Keyes.
My odds:
U2----------- 4-1
Train-------- 7-1
Keyes-------- 3-1
Furtado------25-1
Arie---------50-1
4)Best Pop Performance By a Duo or Group with Vocal: Backstreet Boys and N'Sync cancell each other out. Five for Fighting had that song...oh great...let's give them a prestigous award for having a short-lived visit with mediocre songwriting....NOT!!!!! U2 will win this award for the 2nd straight year. REM could shock everyone with a win, but rarely do you see surprises at the Grammys.
My odds:
Backstreet Boys--10-1
5 for Fighting---15-1
N'Sync-----------8-1
REM--------------5-1
U2---------------3-1
5)Best Rock Performance by a Duo or Group with Vocal: Aerosmith has never won a Grammy, have they? If they have, they'll still walk away emptyhanded. Jaded was a cool song, but if they wouldn't award Aerosmith's earlier work, they won't start with Jaded. Coldplay's "Yellow": Nice song, but it's the dark horse. Train's "Drops of Jupiter": Nice song, which has potential in this category. Dave Matthews Band's "Space Between": I always thought this was more of a pop/love song. Maybe it's not, but I still think it won't win. U2's 'Elevation' is my favorite, and will be in a deadheat race between Train, and Matthews.
My odds:
Aerosmith------20-1
Coldplay------- 7-1
Dave Matthews-- 4-1
Train---------- 3-1
U2------------- 4-1
6)Best Rock Song: Jaded and Yellow are plain OUT. Elevation and Walk on will cancel each other, which leaves Drops of Jupiter. A shoe in unless voters rally behind Walk On. Elevation will be the song that gets overlooked by Walk On due to its meaningful message.
My odds:
Train---------- 2-1
U2 (Elevation)- 15-1
Aerosmith------ 20-1
U2 (Walk On)--- 5-1
Coldplay------- 7-1
7)Best Rock Album: Everyone keeps saying that U2 are a "shoe-in" for this award, but I think differently. Ryan Adams is being compared to Springsteen and Dylan, and that is a good sign for winning this award. He's not nominated for anything else, so voters may recognize him in this category while giving U2 the big prize at the end of the night. Aerosmith is a joke, Harvey is great and all, but come on, and Linkin' Park is a longshot.
My odds:
Adams--------2-1
Aerosmith----15-1
Harvey-------30-1
Linkin' Park-25-1
U2-----------3-2