Every time you watch David Ortiz this fall, just remember that it's "statistically proven" that "clutch" does not exist.
Right.
Right.
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Hewson
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Dude can't even get his batting average in the series to .800, he's no Edgar Martinez.
Sure he's batting .733, but what did he get on his GMATs?
speedracer
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Like I've said before, it's not that he's clutch, it's that everyone else chokes.
It all makes sense now.
PhilsFan
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It's statistically proven that clutch as a large trend doesn't exist. That doesn't mean there can't be exceptions.
mikal
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Carpenter looks like Paulo from Lost.
Right.
Hewson
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In any other year Jon Lester would be front runner for MVP should the Red Sox manage to somehow win the series, but even at 0 for 8 over the next 2 games Ortiz would be hitting just under .500.
John Lackey starts Wednesday, is Pub Crawler/John Lackey/Brandon Wood going to grace us with his presence?
John Lackey starts Wednesday, is Pub Crawler/John Lackey/Brandon Wood going to grace us with his presence?
Hewson
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69 and his Uzi is loaded, you could tell when he caught that pop up.
the tourist
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Clutch: a .948 career postseason OPS vs a .930 career regular season OPS. 18/1000ths equals clutch. Got it.
PhilsFan
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Indeed. The larger point is that David Ortiz is just a fucking good hitter, but whatever.
I find it hilarious when otherwise intelligent sports fans get all butthurt over statistics.
I find it hilarious when otherwise intelligent sports fans get all butthurt over statistics.
Danny Boy
Rock n' Roll Doggie FOB
What about chokes? Is it statistically proven that A-Rod doesn't choke in the postseason?
the tourist
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An .833 OPS (A-Rod's post-season line) is still well over league average. 
Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
(its .958 not .948 currently)
How about a 2.017 OPS in this year's world series when the rest of his team isn't hitting? (or a career 1.370 OPS in 3 separate World Series)
I know its not Edgar Martinez-esque, but its clutch enough to get the single greatest DH in baseball histroy (by a long shot) a lock to become the first DH elected to the hall of fame.
Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
An .833 OPS (A-Rod's post-season line) is still well over league average.
But well below Arod's career regular season .942 OPS...which is Danny Boy's point about comparing Arod in July to Arod in October, not Arod in October to Brandon Wood in July.
PhilsFan
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Five years ago today, gang.
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MrPryck2U
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Did you buy the shirt that Utley is wearing?
the tourist
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Yeah. It changed a bunch because of one game. That just goes to prove it is a small sample size. Justin Smoak had a week in June one year where he OPS'd close to 2.000. So was he totally clutch for a week? Baseball is a game if lots of small samples. Ortiz himself has probably had many weeks where he has done this. But since this is the World Series, suddenly it's not Ortiz being Ortiz. It's the mythical clutch status.
How clutch was Ortiz against Detroit last week?
Oh and my favorite part of this is you specifically trolling me about Edgar Martinez, since you can't actually form a real argument. Gotta resort to tired rehashes. But that's what happens when you get old. You start repeating yourself.
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MrPryck2U
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Settle down, Beavis. If Papi gets in on the first ballot, I'd be surprised. But, Papi spent time at first base, so he's got that going for him. Plus, he's won two championships and going on three. What's Edgar got? 
i find it hilarious when otherwise intelligent sports fans completely rule out the human element and focus merely on a number, which is just as stupid a thing to do as those who ignore all the tremendous advancements in statistical evaluation that have been made over the past decade.
Certain people are simply wired differently. To the point where nothing phases them. That doesn't mean they succeed everytime, but the next time they are in the same situation, they're equally unphased.
Equally, there are those people who let their nerves take over in big spots. Their legs get heavy, their hearts beat faster, their minds race. They are uncomfortable in the big spot. That doesn't mean they don't sometimes succeed, but the next time they're in that situation, they shit their pants all over again.
Anyone who's played sports beyond little league and rec ball knows this is absolutely true.
Hardcore stat heads, who ignore all human elements and base all evaluation strictly on statistics, which can be incredibly misleading, are idiots.
Dinosaurs who ignore all of the advanced statistics and base their evaluations on feel and gut instinct, too, are idiots.
Those who understand that you need BOTH to make a proper and valid evaluation? They're the smart ones.
Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
Grand slam in the bottom of the 8th when down 5-1, thats pretty clutch.
Try the eyeball test once in a while.
And I just get a kick out of the Edgar thing cause I know it burns you that he's not in Cooperstown and will burn you even further when Ortiz makes it before Edgar. Now where the hell did I put my walker?
(you conveniently dropped the Arod choke argument)
Hewson
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Funny thing is you have no idea what my age is do you?
Isn't you always resorting to calling me old when you can't win an argument the same type of tired rehash trolling?
Alanis Morissette - Ironic (Video) - YouTube
Isn't you always resorting to calling me old when you can't win an argument the same type of tired rehash trolling?
Alanis Morissette - Ironic (Video) - YouTube
the tourist
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A-Rod choke.
You mean like in 2009 when he hit .365/.500/.808?
Or in 2004 when he hit .320/.414/.600?
Or how about in 2000 when he hit .371/.410/.600?
Those aren't exactly the playoff stats of someone who consistently chokes. And I hate A-Rod.
You might say, "Oh, but you're cherry-picking!" Well, so are you with Ortiz, so there's that.
the tourist
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I have an idea of your age based on being a U2 fan since '81 and pictures you posted.
How many times have I called you old? 3? How many times have you trolled me on Edgar and the "big bat" comment from 2007? 100?
How many times have I called you old? 3? How many times have you trolled me on Edgar and the "big bat" comment from 2007? 100?
Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
100??
I've told you a million times not to exaggerate.
(Edgar is only a handful, the big bat probably 15-20)
Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
Ah but you used OPS as your basis and his OPS drops over 100 points from regular season to playoffs throughout his career.A-Rod choke.
You mean like in 2009 when he hit .365/.500/.808?
Or in 2004 when he hit .320/.414/.600?
Or how about in 2000 when he hit .371/.410/.600?
Those aren't exactly the playoff stats of someone who consistently chokes. And I hate A-Rod.
You might say, "Oh, but you're cherry-picking!" Well, so are you with Ortiz, so there's that.
(plus as a spurned M's fan, you must get some enjoyment out of watching him come up small in the playoffs more often than not, way more often than not)
the tourist
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Because of small sample size, sure. I'm sure lots of greats in the history of the game have simply had some of their cold streaks happen to fall randomly in at the worst time, be it the playoffs and world series or in the hunt in September. Chalking it up to clutch is incredibly silly. One year a guy is totally clutch. The next year he's a choke artist. Why? Because he had a small sample size with a standard hot streak one year and a small sample size with a standard cold streak one year.
Did A-Rod crumble under the pressure in 2000, 2004, and 2009? Where was his choking?
A-Rod has spent 11 years in the postseason.
One of those years, 1995, he had 2 plate appearances so we can throw that out.
How many of A-Rod's poor years in the playoffs have been in the same year that he spent significant time on the DL during the regular season? 3 recently come to mind (2010-2012).
That leaves 7 postseasons where he's played fully healthy. 3 of which he put up ridiculously big numbers. Well over his career OPS in each. 2 of which were pretty bad, over 100 points below his OPS. And 2 of which were less than his career OPS, but not significantly enough for 16 and 17 plate appearance samples.
By my count, in seasons of health, A-Rod performs overall in the playoffs at about the same overall effectiveness as he has over his career in the regular season. Even if you don't throw out the seasons with poor health, he's still within 100 points, which is a pretty standard deviation for 25% of a regular season's worth of plate appearances.
Also there's the fact that in the games you'd probably claim matter more (ALCS and WS), he's put up a .981 and .973 career OPS respectively.
Choke artist indeed.
Either way, this whole conversation is pointless since you obviously dismiss everything I say anyway.
That isn't why I dislike A-Rod. I actually thank A-Rod for not taking the ridiculous offer the Mariners gave him. The Mariners would not have been able to afford Boone, Ichiro, etc. and 2001 would not have happened if A-Rod had stayed.
Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
See now you're getting defensive. I don't dismiss everything you or anyone (well maybe Lackey/Wood back in the day)says here.
As for the Arod thing, again the eyeball test has shown him with some spectacular failures in the postseason (no need to label it choking), and can you dismiss the seasons where he spent some time on the DL during the season, he was supposedly healthy in 2 of those 3 yrs during the playoffs if I recall. Ortiz missed the first few weeks this season, if he was hitting like Stephen Drew right now, would missing time in April excuse him for October?
Headache summed it up above. That there is something (and its not easliy quantifiable) to some players rising to the occasion during the big moments and others getting nervous/uptight whatever in those situations. All the other statistics don't fly out the window, but there is something to being clutch. Ortiz has it. You're old enough to remember the 2004 ALCS(lord knows I am, thats if I can recall that far back
), Ortiz with extra inning walk off hits in games 4 and 5 (I was at game 5) can only be described as clutch.Much like in basketball where certain players want the ball in their hands when the game is on the line, others let the moment get to them and plotch. And before we argue that Michael Jordan is just being Michael Jordan when he hits game winners in the playoffs, lets just look at the example of Robert Horry, serviceable middle of the road player in the regular season, game winning "Big shot Bob" in the playoffs. Some guys just embrace those moments and excel, others go the other way.
So is Ortiz just a great hitter who also hits well in the playoffs, to some extent, but when the game is on the line, he wants to be up and thrives more often than the average player in those situations. And there are definitely players who have the Timmy Lupus "Don't hit it to me" mentality when the stakes are raised.
powerhour24
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He's also turned into full on Coach Taylor these past few days, just to make up for Farrell's over-managing and dubious decisions I guess.
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