I dunno, I have some suspicions about The Greens' woes more generally (not specific to this seat; I can only take the word of y'all about that part of the world and how it would be if boundaries were sliced and diced a little differently).
My suspicion is that they have housed a Labor-left disgruntled vote on and off (well that part's no secret), and there is no guarantee that a. Labor cannot win some of that back, because as timid as they can be, this is not 2004 anymore... or b. that the Greens themselves cannot shed some of it. If Di Natale and those close to him envisage a centrist tilt, they're out of their minds.
There are definitely some questions that need to be asked of the Greens leadership, and some factional strife that needs to be dealt with productively. The Greens seem reluctant to admit in public that they are experiencing inner turmoil, determined to preserve this image that they are not just another political party. But the thin veil has fallen. Pretending they are some pure organisation is now treating voters as idiots.
There was definitely an anti-Feeney vote in Batman in 2016. The huge swings the Greens achieved in booths in southern Batman in 2016 has to some extent swung back to the ALP, because they didn't run an inept right-wing candidate. But even with those swings, the Greens still hold those southern booths by strong majorities, and just across the border in Wills you have booths that record even higher Green votes (but northern Wills is even more rusted-on ALP, without the Green-leaning students of La Trobe Uni who live in northern Batman).
I am in general a little concerned about the current trajectory of Australian politics. We have had poor results in both Tasmania and South Australia for left-leaning parties. Where to, then, for the VIC, NSW, and federal elections? A month ago you'd have backed the ALP to win the bunch, and the Greens to improve their position.
Is the Reason Party the one that used to be The Sex Party? I don't trust them in the slightest.
That's them. Sex industry libertarianism dressed up as personal freedom and social justice - or, David Leyonhjelm if he were personable rather than a broken cunt.
Its a shame / dumbfounding that Labor in 2018 are making the same mistake with NE Link / West Gate Tunnel as Liberals made in 2014 with EW Link.
I am finding this absolutely mystifying. How Andrews can look at his victory in 2014 on the back of demands for public transport and interpret that as a mandate for motorways is beyond me. I think the ALP will retain government at this year's election, but a loss - or, indeed, any swing against the government at all - will be entirely a result of own goals. The state Liberals are a mess with almost no traction.
Amazing that Dandrews can start some shithouse motorway for which there is no business case, but Airport, Doncaster, and Rowville railway lines remain a pipe dream and new tram lines a gunzel fantasy.