Aussie Aussie Aussie Oi Oi Oi #7

[Kieran McConville]

Unpleased but not really surprised I guess, to hear the result of the South Australian election. It sort of was bound to happen after 16 years.

More surprised but also far from unpleased at the result of the Batman byelection. The Greens under Di Natale are on a shaky road, I fear.

 

[Axver]

Hope everyone enjoyed an anarchy sausage today.

BONNIE!

How's life? Other than the letdown of an election. Though at least it was worse for Xenophon than for the ALP. He must feel worse than anybody in South Australia today.

I look forward to the massive strides Adelaide will make in public transport by adding an unnecessary tram turning angle in the CBD rather than a new line to Norwood.

 

[Axver]

More surprised but also far from unpleased at the result of the Batman byelection. The Greens under Di Natale are on a shaky road, I fear.

The Greens should have had this in the bag, after the momentum of 2013 and 2016. The idiots who leaked from within the party have a lot to answer for, especially as they would've known that they'd find enthusiastic cheerleaders at the Age. Do they really think undermining Bhathal is better than gaining a second Green MHR? It also seems the Greens didn't know what to do when the ALP actually put up a well known left-wing candidate, rather than a shambling grub like Feeney.

It's not lost on me, however, that if Wills and Batman were drawn east-west across Melbourne's north rather than north-south, the one below Bell St would be the safest Green seat in the country.

 

[intedomine]

Massive Own Goal by the Greens. When you're not centrist enough to be able to get away with infighting or factionalism and you've only got 1 member in the house of reps, you must at least appear to be united.

These leaks have let down the 10% of Aussies that are Green-favourable. You've gotta take what you can get and Batman should've been a gimme.

I've started to lean back to Labor in the last 12-18 months or so, mainly cause I really want Andrews' to keep on keeping on in Victoria, but also because the Greens appear somewhat limp of late. I actually quite like Di Natale, Bandt and Sandwell, but the Reason Party and the AJP hit the notes that I wish the Greens could hit with bit more vigour.

 

[Axver]

The Reason Party and AJP? You're joking, right?

 

[Kieran McConville]

I dunno, I have some suspicions about The Greens' woes more generally (not specific to this seat; I can only take the word of y'all about that part of the world and how it would be if boundaries were sliced and diced a little differently).

My suspicion is that they have housed a Labor-left disgruntled vote on and off (well that part's no secret), and there is no guarantee that a. Labor cannot win some of that back, because as timid as they can be, this is not 2004 anymore... or b. that the Greens themselves cannot shed some of it. If Di Natale and those close to him envisage a centrist tilt, they're out of their minds.

 

[Kieran McConville]

Is the Reason Party the one that used to be The Sex Party? I don't trust them in the slightest.

But more power to Andrews, from what I can tell. State politics isn't really my wheelhouse.

 

[kabigon]

Its a shame / dumbfounding that Labor in 2018 are making the same mistake with NE Link / West Gate Tunnel as Liberals made in 2014 with EW Link.

 

[Axver]

I dunno, I have some suspicions about The Greens' woes more generally (not specific to this seat; I can only take the word of y'all about that part of the world and how it would be if boundaries were sliced and diced a little differently).

My suspicion is that they have housed a Labor-left disgruntled vote on and off (well that part's no secret), and there is no guarantee that a. Labor cannot win some of that back, because as timid as they can be, this is not 2004 anymore... or b. that the Greens themselves cannot shed some of it. If Di Natale and those close to him envisage a centrist tilt, they're out of their minds.

There are definitely some questions that need to be asked of the Greens leadership, and some factional strife that needs to be dealt with productively. The Greens seem reluctant to admit in public that they are experiencing inner turmoil, determined to preserve this image that they are not just another political party. But the thin veil has fallen. Pretending they are some pure organisation is now treating voters as idiots.

There was definitely an anti-Feeney vote in Batman in 2016. The huge swings the Greens achieved in booths in southern Batman in 2016 has to some extent swung back to the ALP, because they didn't run an inept right-wing candidate. But even with those swings, the Greens still hold those southern booths by strong majorities, and just across the border in Wills you have booths that record even higher Green votes (but northern Wills is even more rusted-on ALP, without the Green-leaning students of La Trobe Uni who live in northern Batman).

I am in general a little concerned about the current trajectory of Australian politics. We have had poor results in both Tasmania and South Australia for left-leaning parties. Where to, then, for the VIC, NSW, and federal elections? A month ago you'd have backed the ALP to win the bunch, and the Greens to improve their position.

Is the Reason Party the one that used to be The Sex Party? I don't trust them in the slightest.

That's them. Sex industry libertarianism dressed up as personal freedom and social justice - or, David Leyonhjelm if he were personable rather than a broken cunt.

Its a shame / dumbfounding that Labor in 2018 are making the same mistake with NE Link / West Gate Tunnel as Liberals made in 2014 with EW Link.

I am finding this absolutely mystifying. How Andrews can look at his victory in 2014 on the back of demands for public transport and interpret that as a mandate for motorways is beyond me. I think the ALP will retain government at this year's election, but a loss - or, indeed, any swing against the government at all - will be entirely a result of own goals. The state Liberals are a mess with almost no traction.

Amazing that Dandrews can start some shithouse motorway for which there is no business case, but Airport, Doncaster, and Rowville railway lines remain a pipe dream and new tram lines a gunzel fantasy.

 

[cobl04]

My suspicion is that they have housed a Labor-left disgruntled vote on and off (well that part's no secret), and there is no guarantee that a. Labor cannot win some of that back, because as timid as they can be, this is not 2004 anymore... or b. that the Greens themselves cannot shed some of it. If Di Natale and those close to him envisage a centrist tilt, they're out of their minds.

I agree with this. I would highly suggest familiarising yourself with the writing of Osman Faruqi, currently editor of Junkee, and a former Greens staffer (and son of NSW MP Mehreen Faruqi). This is a great place to start: Without some serious soul searching, the Greens will never move beyond the 10% plateau | The Guardian

I'm upset by it all. I really, really like Richard di Natale, but perhaps it was a little naïve to think that the Greens would grow organically when that strategy was almost entirely contingent upon the ALP drifting further to the right. Most Greens voters aren't stupid; they want progressive policies, and many would be quite willing to jump to the ALP should they put up a decent candidate. Daniel Andrews, though I have some growing misgivings about him, is a good example. Anthony Albanese another, and same with this Ged Keaney lady, who I’d not heard of before I must admit.

Greens did fare better in QLD: https://twitter.com/oz_f/status/974941530677850113

Originally posted by intedomine
I've started to lean back to Labor in the last 12-18 months or so, mainly cause I really want Andrews' to keep on keeping on in Victoria, but also because the Greens appear somewhat limp of late. I actually quite like Di Natale, Bandt and Sandwell, but the Reason Party and the AJP hit the notes that I wish the Greens could hit with bit more vigour.

And Corbyn, I suspect Imagine if the ALP put up a Corbyn. It would decimate the Greens.

Originally posted by kabigon
Its a shame / dumbfounding that Labor in 2018 are making the same mistake with NE Link / West Gate Tunnel as Liberals made in 2014 with EW Link.

Originally posted by Axver
I am finding this absolutely mystifying. How Andrews can look at his victory in 2014 on the back of demands for public transport and interpret that as a mandate for motorways is beyond me. I think the ALP will retain government at this year's election, but a loss - or, indeed, any swing against the government at all - will be entirely a result of own goals. The state Liberals are a mess with almost no traction.

Amazing that Dandrews can start some shithouse motorway for which there is no business case, but Airport, Doncaster, and Rowville railway lines remain a pipe dream and new tram lines a gunzel fantasy.

Are there really viable PT options for the North-East Link and the West Gate Tunnel, though? Not sure PT would be the solution for those. NE Link is outer suburban Melbourne, and transport in the western suburbs is already completely fucked, it’s pretty much necessary (and there’s not really room to build a direct train line for the west).

Otherwise, I agree - but his government are doing a pretty good job there, a lot of the South East / Bayside lines are heaps better now, and the Metro Tunnel will kick ass when it’s finished in 2590.

I’d consider voting for him. I do like him. But there are also a few things he’s said of late that I’ve really hated, namely his opposition to changing the date, that have seen me drift towards the Greens again.

 

[Kieran McConville]

I am in general a little concerned about the current trajectory of Australian politics. We have had poor results in both Tasmania and South Australia for left-leaning parties. Where to, then, for the VIC, NSW, and federal elections? A month ago you'd have backed the ALP to win the bunch, and the Greens to improve their position.

Tas and SA are disappointing, but I'm not sure the latter at least is really a belwether for the nation as a whole. It was a very very long term government, and from what I can gather it actually held its position very well indeed, but some recent seat rearrangements saw the Liberals get over the line.

Federally, I feel like Turnbull and co. are cruising to absolute annihilation. It's obscured somewhat in that all national media, including The Guardian (at the editorial level), are running a protection racket for them, but how far does that influence travel anymore? Maybe that's just wishful thinking, but I don't see what's changed in the last year except for the worse on their front.

On a different note, I'd observe that while Bill Shorten is nobody's idea of a media star, he seems to have a very tight grip on things behind the scenes. He strikes me as seriously unflappable. And you can see the response from the Coalition ranks; it is not edifying. Personally I think Shorten is a capital-P pragmatist. But he seems smart enough to smell which way the wind is blowing.

 

[Kieran McConville]

I agree with this. I would highly suggest familiarising yourself with the writing of Osman Faruqi, currently editor of Junkee, and a former Greens staffer (and son of NSW MP Mehreen Faruqi). This is a great place to start: Without some serious soul searching, the Greens will never move beyond the 10% plateau | The Guardian

I'm upset by it all. I really, really like Richard di Natale, but perhaps it was a little naïve to think that the Greens would grow organically when that strategy was almost entirely contingent upon the ALP drifting further to the right. Most Greens voters aren't stupid; they want progressive policies, and many would be quite willing to jump to the ALP should they put up a decent candidate. Daniel Andrews, though I have some growing misgivings about him, is a good example. Anthony Albanese another, and same with this Ged Keaney lady, who I’d not heard of before I must admit.

Greens did fare better in QLD: https://twitter.com/oz_f/status/974941530677850113

Thanks, I will read that.

I must say more generally, I don't really understand the hangups about 'factions' and whatnot. Any political movement must be understood as containing people who disagree about means and ends. Of course the Greens have factions; denying it is just foolish.

 

[cobl04]

I think ALP will win in the next federal election, though it won't be a landslide.

I think they will also hold on in Vic, ALP have done a good job, but it will be with a decreased majority.

Also, I have no idea why people are angry at firefighters and paramedics getting amazing pay offers and conditions. The HS ran a campaign against it. I'm like.... they're literally saving lives every second of every day. They could get 300 days of paid leave every single year and I wouldn't give a fuck. Give them all the money in the world.

 

[kabigon]

Are there really viable PT options for the North-East Link and the West Gate Tunnel, though? Not sure PT would be the solution for those. NE Link is outer suburban Melbourne, and transport in the western suburbs is already completely fucked, it’s pretty much necessary (and there’s not really room to build a direct train line for the west).

Otherwise, I agree - but his government are doing a pretty good job there, a lot of the South East / Bayside lines are heaps better now, and the Metro Tunnel will kick ass when it’s finished in 2590.

I’d consider voting for him. I do like him. But there are also a few things he’s said of late that I’ve really hated, namely his opposition to changing the date, that have seen me drift towards the Greens again.

New roads will always fill up due to induced demand. While PT can never take everyone where they want to go, it's much cheaper to build and moves much more people per hour. If people are given a genuine alternative to driving, they'll probably take it. This leaves roads slightly less clogged for those who do need to use them.

Also, I have no idea why people are angry at firefighters and paramedics getting amazing pay offers and conditions. The HS ran a campaign against it. I'm like.... they're literally saving lives every second of every day. They could get 300 days of paid leave every single year and I wouldn't give a fuck. Give them all the money in the world.

Because they like firefighters and paramedics slightly less than they hate unions

 

[cobl04]

I can't say much for the NE link cos I don't live there, but this is the basic plan

They're not going to build a train line that doesn't connect to the city, it would just be up and down between Greensborough and Ringwood. I can't think of any train line in Melbourne that is simply a connection between areas. A tram line wouldn't be able to hold enough people. A road there makes sense.

As for the West Gate Tunnel, that's hugely necessary. There are only four ways for people from the western suburbs to get into the city and beyond at the moment: Metro train, VLine train, freeway/West Gate Bridge and freeway/Geelong Rd. Anyone who lives further west than the Footscray/Yarraville/Williamstown/Spotswood area can tell you how fucked it is. It takes people from Werribee and Point Cook hours to get to work sometimes, because housing was built very quickly but no one invested in the infrastructure. So all the roads are clogged from 6am to 10am and 4pm to 7pm every weekday.

Also, as much as I am very much in favour of increasing public transport, there are some options that need roads. Tradies, for example, are not going to be able to travel via public transport. And there's a lot of them in the areas that will be serviced by the NE Link and the West Gate Tunnel.

 

[cobl04]

Sabotage And Expulsions: The Aftermath Of The Greens’ Shock Election Loss | Junkee

 

[Axver]

Are there really viable PT options for the North-East Link and the West Gate Tunnel, though? Not sure PT would be the solution for those. NE Link is outer suburban Melbourne, and transport in the western suburbs is already completely fucked, it’s pretty much necessary (and there’s not really room to build a direct train line for the west).

Otherwise, I agree - but his government are doing a pretty good job there, a lot of the South East / Bayside lines are heaps better now, and the Metro Tunnel will kick ass when it’s finished in 2590.

I do support the NE Link. That's been on the drawing board for a good while and will genuinely be useful. It's perhaps not our top priority, and they need to get the route right, but it will aid in moving traffic between suburbs without clogging local streets.

The Western Distributor is hilariously unnecessary though, and the manner in which it has been proposed is shady as fuck. The ALP took a good proposal to the last state election - to build truck ramps off the freeway to access the port via a dedicated freight road. Yarraville badly needs that. And there also needed to be policy to restore to rail a lot of the freight traffic that currently goes by road, especially various dock connections that have been disconnected from the network in the last few decades.

Instead, we get a private company, Transurban (who already exercise disproportionate control over Melbourne's transport planning through contracts that confer to them effectively a right of veto over projects that will reduce their profits), proposing a brand new road that is contrary to what electors supported in 2014 - feeling the echoes of the East-West Link yet? - and rammed it into government policy. You could never get any sort of other public infrastructure approved this quickly, let alone with boots on the ground already, but Transurban's corporate clout and political connections have achieved the unthinkable. And this is going to funnel a shocking amount of traffic onto streets in the CBD and North Melbourne. You're going to struggle to find an urban planner who thinks this is a good idea. And it sure as shit isn't about the people of the west, it's about Transurban owning yet another toll road, and about the trucking industry. Also, kabigon's point about induced demand.

What we really need is the 86 tram in Docklands extended to Footscray (that plan's been on the drawing board for ages), the airport line built (most corridors would provide a train for parts of the northwest), the completion of the Melbourne Metro, and there's a brilliant plan floating around - in various permutations - to link the west to the CBD by rail using a tunnel under the Yarra and Fisherman's Bend.

Tas and SA are disappointing, but I'm not sure the latter at least is really a belwether for the nation as a whole. It was a very very long term government, and from what I can gather it actually held its position very well indeed, but some recent seat rearrangements saw the Liberals get over the line.

Federally, I feel like Turnbull and co. are cruising to absolute annihilation. It's obscured somewhat in that all national media, including The Guardian (at the editorial level), are running a protection racket for them, but how far does that influence travel anymore? Maybe that's just wishful thinking, but I don't see what's changed in the last year except for the worse on their front.

On a different note, I'd observe that while Bill Shorten is nobody's idea of a media star, he seems to have a very tight grip on things behind the scenes. He strikes me as seriously unflappable. And you can see the response from the Coalition ranks; it is not edifying. Personally I think Shorten is a capital-P pragmatist. But he seems smart enough to smell which way the wind is blowing.

Good post. Yeah, SA has a distinctive internal political dynamic, and I expect the federal government will get monstered in the eastern states. But both of these results suggest that maybe there is something to the old conventional wisdom that voters distinguish between state and federal politics, which I had often considered to be a myth. I also struggle to imagine the sort of person who would vote ALP or Green at one level and Liberal at another, or why I would give any credit to their opinion.

Also, I have no idea why people are angry at firefighters and paramedics getting amazing pay offers and conditions. The HS ran a campaign against it. I'm like.... they're literally saving lives every second of every day. They could get 300 days of paid leave every single year and I wouldn't give a fuck. Give them all the money in the world.

Yep, no shit eh.

 

[intedomine]

The Reason Party and AJP? You're joking, right?

It's more that I wish the Greens, if they are to be a perfectly viable fit for me personally, could adopt a more proudly secular positioning. Also, to actually be a little more outspoken against Live Export and be an advocate for harsher penalties for animal-abusers. Also, to advocate for sustainable farming and (even better) a vegan economy.

 

[intedomine]

It's amazing to think the bus is the best option for people who live in the Kew, Balwyn, Doncaster, Templestowe corridor. It baffles me that there was never a train line constructed.

Worse still is the congestion on King St during the day when clearways aren't in play. Takes me 15 minutes by far to get from the top end to Crown, at 11am in the morning.

 

[Axver]

It's more that I wish the Greens, if they are to be a perfectly viable fit for me personally, could adopt a more proudly secular positioning. Also, to actually be a little more outspoken against Live Export and be an advocate for harsher penalties for animal-abusers. Also, to advocate for sustainable farming and (even better) a vegan economy.

For all my Green voting, live export has never been a hot-button issue with me, and I genuinely think veganism is foolishness. One of my best friends is vegan and we basically have a detente: he thinks I'm a murderer and I think he makes bad life choices and we never ever speak of it except through sarcasm and Simpsons quotes.

Anyway, AJP are hacks who ended up preferencing the Liberals over the Greens to make some dumb point, which was the final straw for aforementioned vegan mate to leave the party.

It's amazing to think the bus is the best option for people who live in the Kew, Balwyn, Doncaster, Templestowe corridor. It baffles me that there was never a train line constructed.

Worse still is the congestion on King St during the day when clearways aren't in play. Takes me 15 minutes by far to get from the top end to Crown, at 11am in the morning.

Do you want my lecture about the history of rail transport in Victoria.

 

[Kieran McConville]

Good post. Yeah, SA has a distinctive internal political dynamic, and I expect the federal government will get monstered in the eastern states. But both of these results suggest that maybe there is something to the old conventional wisdom that voters distinguish between state and federal politics, which I had often considered to be a myth. I also struggle to imagine the sort of person who would vote ALP or Green at one level and Liberal at another, or why I would give any credit to their opinion.

I'll admit I don't know who that mythical person is, that would vote ALP or Green at one level and Liberal at another. I suppose they must exist in some shape or form... but the pattern is certainly there. It's when the tide is going out in the states that it rolls in at the capital. More or less.

I mean, if your focus is on local and state/local concerns, and a lot of people's is - the school, the overpass - I guess I get it. That might be the main game, and Canberra is just a sort of afterthought 'don't give the bastards too much power' or somesuch. I think of the states as an afterthought for the most part. Lacking the opposable thumb income taxation power and all. Not that they're going anywhere anytime soon.

 

[Kieran McConville]

Oh and of course, it has to be said, fuck you Nick Xenophon. If any good comes out of the last few years, it's really shaking the fucking grifters out of the tree, am I right?

I gave, have given, continue to give, One Nation a lot less serious attention than some of you, and I think I've been proven right to an extent, no? Same goes for Xenophon's Next Generation Xenophon Cult or whatever it's called. In different ways, they're just Liberal proxies. Waste of time.

 

[Kieran McConville]

Actually, if the Greens - in my humble opinion, there's the disclaimer - were really serious, I think they'd fashion themselves into the kind of party that could gradually start picking off the National Party's seats (and no, that would not entail angling for the centre; quite the reverse). There are potential commonalities of interest there, and I know Christine Milne was tilting at them for a while, but they've decided to be an inner city ghetto party so that's that, basically.

 

[Axver]

Actually, if the Greens - in my humble opinion, there's the disclaimer - were really serious, I think they'd fashion themselves into the kind of party that could gradually start picking off the National Party's seats (and no, that would not entail angling for the centre; quite the reverse). There are potential commonalities of interest there, and I know Christine Milne was tilting at them for a while, but they've decided to be an inner city ghetto party so that's that, basically.

I do wonder about this. It seems that to take a regional seat, though, there needs to be a Byron Bay-esque town to act as an incubator initially, and then to remain a hub once the party has something of a presence. When I consider the part of regional NSW that my mum lives in... good lord, "Greens" is basically a swear word, people there wouldn't pay any attention even if the Greens had perfect policy for everyone.

I get the inner city strategy. There are a bunch of urban electorates that look fairly easy for the Greens to pick up, even if that's proven somewhat illusory since the heady days of 2010. But they do need to target other seats too. Hell, their very first lower house seat was NOT Melbourne, but the electorate in which I now live, Cunningham. Michael Organ won it at a by-election in 2002 when the Libs didn't stand a candidate and most non-ALP candidates directed preferences to the Greens. (As it happens, I now sorta work with the guy, though we haven't exchanged more than pleasantries.)

 

[Kieran McConville]

I do wonder about this. It seems that to take a regional seat, though, there needs to be a Byron Bay-esque town to act as an incubator initially, and then to remain a hub once the party has something of a presence. When I consider the part of regional NSW that my mum lives in... good lord, "Greens" is basically a swear word, people there wouldn't pay any attention even if the Greens had perfect policy for everyone.

I get the inner city strategy. There are a bunch of urban electorates that look fairly easy for the Greens to pick up, even if that's proven somewhat illusory since the heady days of 2010. But they do need to target other seats too. Hell, their very first lower house seat was NOT Melbourne, but the electorate in which I now live, Cunningham. Michael Organ won it at a by-election in 2002 when the Libs didn't stand a candidate and most non-ALP candidates directed preferences to the Greens. (As it happens, I now sorta work with the guy, though we haven't exchanged more than pleasantries.)

I get the inner city strategy too, but it's not a long term path, indeed.

I mean, I'm not flush with answers and just as well, then, that my job doesn't have anything to do with these things! But I sense that the National party are incredibly vulnerable. They do not represent the interests of their alleged constituents; it's a thin patina of culture war over a deep well of mining-industry service to a great extent. A certain breed of Green could have a future in the oddest places. Maybe.

 

[Axver]

I do think it's suggestive of something that the Libs have flipped from preferencing the Greens to preferencing the ALP. If they had continued to preference the Greens, they definitely would've won Batman in 2016, and I think there was one other where they might've got up... Melbourne Ports maybe? It used to be that the Libs would back practically anyone else above the ALP, but now they clearly view the Greens as enough of a threat that they'd rather let their great historic rival take a seat.

It also goes to show just how much people follow their how to vote cards.

But I'm increasingly thinking Di Natale is not the man to take them to the next election. He is perhaps not to blame for some of the biggest blunders, especially not shit in NSW, but it's happened on his watch. The problem is that his two natural successors, Scott Ludlam and Larissa Waters, both got booted! Either of them would have been a fine leader. I don't know who the best alternative is now. Not Adam Bandt, who many people would muddle up with RDN.

 

[cobl04]

Lee Rhiannon? Although she may be too old and there was a Monthly article a while back about her being a feather-ruffler. Too left-wing, iirc

 

[Axver]

She's lucky she's still in the party. Far too much internal dispute between her and the rest of the Greens.

Two years ago I'd have said it would also be bad press, given her well-known "watermelon" tendencies. Though now, with the rise of Corbyn et al., perhaps she'd go down better than expected!

 

[Kieran McConville]

Installment #3522999 of 'if Pauline Hanson really were an economic populist - any more than Donald J Trump actually is - she'd be really dangerous'. But as this current banking royal commission trundles along? Crickets.

Not a ton of noise from Labor either, so far as you can tell through the fog of war. But crickets from the little Aussie battler.

 

[Axver]

Hey how 'bout this fucking budget everyone.

Fuck this country, or at least all the parts of it that voted for this shithouse government.