How is Trump doing this? That's pretty simple...
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=mobilebar&v=1
He's not.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=mobilebar&v=1
He's not.
The GOP's socialist and communist attacks would have been vicious and relentless, and I wanted to see him be able to combat that by saying, listen, in a soviet-type communist system, the government owns everything, there is no freedom of the press and freedom of speech is very limited. We would have to repeal several amendments from the bill of rights including the first amendment. And do you seriously think this is what I want? Do you think I want to take away your freedom of speech, have you live in a society where the only news you get is the news the government produces, where every good you buy is manufactured by the government, etc etc, is that really what you think I want? That's ridiculous! All I want is for everyone to have healthcare, for the minimum wage to be higher, and for quality education to be available to everyone, that is it!
How is Trump doing this? That's pretty simple...
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=mobilebar&v=1
He's not.
i can't for the life of me understand why when there is one poll showing Trump leading in a state in which he wasn't previously, or closes by a point nationally, people here seem to completely forget that the electoral college is a thing.
Lay off T.Swizzle or we're gonna have bad blood.sure. and taylor swift might stop by this evening to give me a handjob too.
natesilver: I’m semi-tempted to go on a rant about how Democrats are abusing the “Look at the state polls!” argument incorrectly, as a way to deny that the race has tightened
From: Why Is Trump Gaining On Clinton? | FiveThirtyEight
Trump also has an alternate path to victory that not a lot of people are noticing. Romney States + Nevada + Iowa + Florida + Ohio + North Carolina + Colorado would give him the victory. And I think Colorado might be an easier flip than Pennsylvania. Two of the last three polls of Colorado had a sizable Trump lead.
sure. and taylor swift might stop by this evening to give me a handjob too.
According to fivethirtyeight, if the election were held today, Trump's odds of winning the above states are as follows:
Nevada: 55.0% chance of winning
Iowa: 70.6% chance of winning
Florida: 56.5% chance of winning
Ohio: 62.6% chance of winning
North Carolina: 56.7% chance of winning
Colorado: 37.9% chance of winning
I wish my odds of getting a tswift handjob were as high as Dave's apparently are.
This is getting close enough that it almost makes me wanna stop bashing Clinton.
The map isn't in republican favor. Nothing to do with Trump, but those numbers aren't good enough. He needs ALL of those states, so if his "odds" of winning just one range somewhere between 50-70%, then the odds of winning all of them are below 10%.
Given everything he has done and said and his massive cash diasdvantage, the fact that Trump is above 40% is absolutely shocking.
Romney was at 20% when the election rolled around and McCain was at a near impossibility that he could win the electoral college. Trump is in a damn good position and as the FiveThirtyEight article that I just posted mentioned, Clinton really doesn't have a built-in Electoral Advantage this time around with Trump being about four times more likely to win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote. There is no protective Blue Wall this time and a gain of a couple points nationally will suddenly put states like Colorado, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in play - any of which could tip it to Trump.
Given everything he has done and said and his massive cash diasdvantage, the fact that Trump is above 40% is absolutely shocking.
Romney was at 20% when the election rolled around and McCain was at a near impossibility that he could win the electoral college. Trump is in a damn good position and as the FiveThirtyEight article that I just posted mentioned, Clinton really doesn't have a built-in Electoral Advantage this time around with Trump being about four times more likely to win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote. There is no protective Blue Wall this time and a gain of a couple points nationally will suddenly put states like Colorado, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in play - any of which could tip it to Trump.
Blame the immigrants, the brown people, and the black people. This is how Hitler rose to power. ...
Lay off T.Swizzle or we're gonna have bad blood.
you proved godwin's law in record time.
Godwin's law - as an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving nazism or hitler approaches 1
sent from my iphone using u2 interference
[tweet]776807944440705024[/tweet]
I get the logic, but it's just pretty much wrong.
Believe me,
FiveThirtyEight factors that into their projections,
but all things considered,
Trump would reasonably be expected to take all the non-Colorado states in that list Caleb posted.
They all give him a significant chance of winning above a coin-flip, and given the information at hand, he'd be expected to win them with ease.
Obviously, if just one of those falls out of his column it's game over and the election can be called right then on that first Tuesday in November.
You proved Godwin's Law in record time.
Godwin's Law - As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazism or Hitler approaches 1
Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference
You proved Godwin's Law in record time.
Godwin's Law - As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazism or Hitler approaches 1
Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference