Well when the masters are delivered to the record company you can expect the release date to be announced soon after and it is generally approx. 90 days.
As for marketing, I would expect that to begin soon after, once the album artwork and title have been decided (probably would have already been decided). I would expect marketing to begin within the first 30 days after the delivery of the master recordings.
Often times (concerning U2) the videos are filmed in the 2nd 30 days or the '2nd month'.
Usually the debut of the video on televison and the release of the single is within the last 30 days.
It seems that from everything I've read on just about any band or recording artist, it usually takes 90 days by the time the thing is done until the time of it's release. This would be give or take a few days, not exactly 90, but you get the idea.
I heard Discotheque leaked onto the radio in January, the video debuted in late Jan/early Feb and the album came out in March. There are very few exceptions to the formula with U2, only Zooropa comes to mind (which was recorded in between tours) so that would explain a little bit.
My guess has always been that U2's deadline for the Pop sessions was the end of November 1996. Because that would have been almost exactly 6 months until the start of the tour (Elevation kicked off in April 01, 6 months after the album came out). I also remember reading in August 2000, that U2 had finished the labum weeks before, which lends exactly to the formula. Beautiful Day was leaked to this website in late August, so that would have been the first 30 days. And so on and so on.
It also explains the fact that so many of U2's albums are released in March because December is usually on 'off-time' for family and holidays. At the very least the 2 or 3 weeksright before Christmas. So most recording is wrapped up prior to then. That's just a guess, but it makes a lot of sense.
Based on that, I would guess that the boys will be finished before the 2nd or 3rd week of December (maybe even before that) . Marketing would begin in late January or February, this would also mean that in Jan/Feb we will find out the album title and tracklisting. March would be the video and single, and the album most likely to follow in mid/late March of probably in all cases April.
The people close to the band have mentioned April, they didn't just pull that month out of their ass, they are projecting it for the tour schedule, video shoot, promotion, photography and marketing campaign.
Now that doesn't mean anything really, but it is a very close indicator of when it will come out. My guess is that 75% or 3/4 of the album is likely mostly done. And in the next 90 days, they are finishing up recording in September and October, probably most of the writing is done and they will most likely use parts of November and early December to mix the album.
What am I saying?
My educated guess is that there is no way that the album will be out before Christmas. No one really is saying that, so it's not really a guess. SO being that they are basically a year and a half into recording (preliminary sessions were right after Elevation ended) that they will most definitely wrap it up in the next 90 days. That meaning they will 'wrap it up' meaning they will be done before Christmas, and we will see the early promotions etc. Right after the beginning of the new year, and the album will follow in March or most likely April.
I know the boys have pushed back release dates, and it's likely that they will release a date and maybe push it back a few weeks (this is often times a record label decision).
So maybe we might recieve a gift and have an mp3 to download right before Christmas or just thereafter. I can't wait to hear a new single from the band. The excitement level is tremendous.
2 years since the tour ended, 3 years since the album.
This 'quiet' period could mean the exact opposite, and that they are within 30 days of finishing it to try and get it out before Christmas, but that IMO is just wishful thinking.
In any event, I think we are no longer than 8 months from the new album and definitely no closer than 3 months. In keeping with the history of the band, I'll say 8 months is more likely.
I'll go ahead and say:
March 16th 2004.
