The cell phone situation was not as widespread in 2004. I, for one, had a phone line back then, and I don't think I'm unique. Party registration isn't necessarily indicative, but all those thousands of people who actually dropped their Republican affiliation - well they went to the trouble, seems to me they aren't McCain voting. You think that the huge voter registration is going to net no new votes? I think that's insanity and nonsense. The Obama people are not counting on anywhere near 1:1 voting, but they don't need it. A modest increase would be enough in some states. As for AA voters - in Florida alone there were over 600,000 registered AA voters who did not bother voting in 2004. Add to that the tens of thousands registered this time. Add to that the huge energy of the AA community and ask yourself how scary would it be if even a third of these voters turned out on November 4?
If you focus on the states that actually matter, the voting registration thing becomes even less relevant. Sure, it may yield a victory, but the first sign that the compaigns are looking at are still the polls, not the registration figures.
The Republicans won Florida by 400,000 votes in 2004 and polling has shown McCain ahead for most of the year there.
The Republicans won Virginia by nearly 300,000 votes in 2004. This year polling has been close with McCain only ahead sometimes by a very small margin. But with McCain being the only veteran in the race and Virginia home to the largest percentage of veterans in the country, the Obama/Biden team having not military experience of any kind, and the fact that the Republicans have not lost Virginia since 1964, I think McCain will win this state.
The Republicans only won Ohio by 120,000 votes in 2004. Polls this year are very close.
The Republicans won Colorado by 100,000 votes in 2004. Earlier this year it appeared the Democrats had a lock on Colorado. But then McCain started to do well in the polls there coming out ahead in several of them. There has yet to be any post convention polls posted from this state. While Obama and the Democrats will get a boost from having the convention there, I think Sarah Palin will help McCain a lot in Colorado.
The Republicans only won Nevada by 20,000 votes in 2004. Polls have been close this year, but have trended in McCain's direction.
If McCain/Palin win the above 5 states all of which went for Bush in 2004, they will win the election.
Its unlikely Obama/Biden will be able to win if they lose any of the Blue states from 2004.
The Republicans come out of the two back to back conventions with the media discussing Sarah Palin all day, and Barack Obama's Mile High Stadium show seems like a distant memory. At this point, McCain is definitely in a better position than he was before the conventions.
Despite nearly everything being stacked against a Republican victory in 2008, 58 days out, the polls still show that McCain could still win on November 4.