gabrielvox said:
I think it is. The numbers speak for themselves, and the biggest cinema company in Canada decided not to carry the movie in any significant fashion because of how soundly Hannah Montana kicked U2's ass at the box office. I have that in writing from corporate.
This is ridiculous, really. This is U2's biggest failure in terms of releases, imo. I'm sure National Geographic has a large share of the blame, but let's face it, anyone with a brain in their head must know what sort of minimalist marketing campaigns NG puts on for it's other IMAX films. U2 must've known what they were getting into when they signed on with NG.
Should U2 have waited to release this until they got a major distributor to back it??
Admittedly the Hannah Montana film opened huge. The opening was so big that it even beat out Hollywood releases. By your logic, all of Hollywood's films should therefore be embarrassed and none should ever be made again (which some might actually enjoy - but note, Montana beat out the Indies too).
After the big opening, Montana's film has nose-dived. She's a pop sensation that attracted a lot of attention that first weekend. Her show is free on TV and the marketing by Disney is huge. It should have surprised no one that the film opened big.
But after that, her audience dried up. The second week in U.S. and Candian theaters, Montana's film saw a 67% drop - the biggest drop in the Top 25 films that weekend. In contrast, U2's film saw a 3% increase. This current weekend (ending Feb. 17th - so not counting the U.S. Presidents' Day holiday), Montana's film dropped another 68% per estimates, which is once again the biggest drop in the Top 30.
One may argue that these drops, while huge, don't matter as Montana's film has dominated U2's. But U2's film is playing in a mere 42 theaters. My local theater has it - there's just one show a day!! Montana's film is in 685 theaters (and possibly more than one screen) with many showings a day. Despite this, U2's film made almost $11,000 per theater over the weekend. Montana's film averaged $4800 per theater.
In other words, given the few theaters and relatively few showings in those theaters, U2's film is really doing well. While it's not only an IMAX release, most of the theaters are indeed IMAX and U2's film is performing like a solid IMAX film. IMAX films have long shelf-lives and they could have U2's film play throughout the summer and even fall before it is pulled.
While U2's film will never have the big numbers of Montana's film, the two really can't be compared simply due to the fact that Montana's film is in 16x the amount of theaters (with many more showings per day). But what is true is that U2's film has not yet satisfied their audience as the numbers are holding up overall. This is clearly not true for Montana's film.
So is it a flop? Not by IMAX standards. And where will Hannah Montana be in 2 years? Most likely forgotten. Then, in 5-10 years, she'll do some sort of "comeback" ala the Spice Girls.
At $11,000 per theater, I doubt IMAX will stop showing U2's film any time soon. It's their biggest money-maker!! In contrast, Montana's film will probably fall from theaters in the next month.