US Politics XV: Time to Mull Mueller Mania

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anitram said:
New Monmouth Poll is out - for context it has the highest rating (A+) of pollsters per 538.

Sanders 20%
Warren 20%
Biden 19%

Biden is down double-digit (13) points since the last time the poll was run, 2 months ago.



Unrelated, but this is a fantastic ad. People of Iowa, if you can't get rid of Steve King, at last turf Joni Ernst.

https://twitter.com/FrankenforIowa/...19/8/26/1881478/-Franken-announces-Senate-run
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Wow, this is incredibly interesting data.
6 days ago, a CNN poll showed Biden up 7 points from 2 months ago. and now this one shows him down 13!
The CNN poll had a much larger sample, but this definitely shows that there is now a much less clear front-runner, and that I think after this next debate, things will get a lot more shaken up.
Glad to see that we are getting a real competitive race, and excited to see where it goes.
 
womanfish said:
Glad to see that we are getting a real competitive race, and excited to see where it goes.
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Same - my hope is that we see everyone who did not make the third debate drop out. That would address some statistical noise - for a start. Ideally this field would be down to a max of 6-7 people come 2020...
 
anitram said:
Same - my hope is that we see everyone who did not make the third debate drop out. That would address some statistical noise - for a start. Ideally this field would be down to a max of 6-7 people come 2020...
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agreed. I think that if we had 12 people with 1 to 2% leave, that the remaining candidates will get to see some real shifts. How those 20+ points will be distributed could be dramatic or could be evenly spread.

The one thing is, if this latest poll is more accurate than the CNN poll, than we may be heading to where if Biden slips into second or third in another poll or two, there is no coming back for him. He has made his entire case already. He is known, there are no more rabbits to pull out of the hat. And then that's when see a big chunk of voters shifting off to someone else.

This is where i think Warren is situated the best. Lesser known than Biden or Sanders, starting to draw very large crowds, and people that start out not knowing much about her or support her, seem to leave her events excited about her, and that's a big deal.
Harris could benefit from Biden sliding out as well, probably a more natural jump, as she is more moderate than Warren and Sanders and Biden has heavy support from African Americans.

My worries still persist in that I'm afraid minority voters, now heavily behind Biden, will not be enthusiastic for Sanders or Warren. We shall see!
 
DaveC said:
that poll sampled less than 300 people, so i dunno if it holds all that much weight.
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Why? 300 is plenty, assuming they asked the appropriate questions and sampled them appropriately. It could be a percent or two off per candidate, but at this point peoples opinions are more fluid than the error. It’s certainly enough to forecast Biden’s loss of his large lead.
 
LuckyNumber7 said:
Why? 300 is plenty, assuming they asked the appropriate questions and sampled them appropriately. It could be a percent or two off per candidate, but at this point peoples opinions are more fluid than the error. It’s certainly enough to forecast Biden’s loss of his large lead.
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Monmouth always polls around 300 people in any event.
 
Headache in a Suitcase said:
The only people who can drive the youth vote are the youth voters. "Give them something to vote for" is a great theory. But stop waiting for someone else to give you what you want and go fucking take it.

It's why I have hope that the Parkland group has a chance to make real change on this front. They seem to get it. They need to be the left's version of the tea party.

You need more than protests, hashtags and outrage.

You need organization.

Stop complaining and go take it. The only reason why old white people get catered to by politicians is because they are the ones who consistently turn out to vote. Flip that narrative and the country is changed forever.

The work they've already done to damage the NRA is inspiring as fuck. They seem determined to do the same for 2020. The Tea Party and Trump have proven that movements can overcome find raising. Go. Fight. Win.
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My generation is split in two: a group of people doing the groundwork and organizing, which is admittedly small but growing, and then a group of people who grew up being taught these issues aren't even political. They're just the way things are, and politics is like religion and something you don't talk about dinner.

This post is driving me fucking insane. Generation X and the Boomers are the poster children for the ineffectual hashtag resistance, not the millennials.
 
womanfish said:
We now know that this was one of the main strategies of Russian trolls, to divide up the party and cast Clinton as an evil neo-liberal, oligarch fucking, corporate whore, and how the evil DNC rigged everthything, blah, blah, blah.
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Blaming Russian trolls for 2016 shows you learned nothing about what happened. The impact has been massively overblown by people whose livelihoods depend on not having been wrong with everything they did in 2016.
 
Jerry Dunk said:
My generation is split in two: a group of people doing the groundwork and organizing, which is admittedly small but growing, and then a group of people who grew up being taught these issues aren't even political. They're just the way things are, and politics is like religion and something you don't talk about dinner.



This post is driving me fucking insane. Generation X and the Boomers are the poster children for the ineffectual hashtag resistance, not the millennials.
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And the people in the streets in Hong Kong and other places in the world were taught what, exactly?

The youth vote isn't even millennials anymore, so I'm not even talking about your generation. That ship hath sailed. Y'all are old now, just like the rest of us. And I miss the millennial cut off by like 30 fucking days so please don't give me that gen x shit. We can all agree that boomers fucked shit hard for generations to come, but let's please not act as if those of us who were in our late 20s and early 30s when the great recession hit got out Scott free, or like we set the rules that led to the issues that fucked the generation coming out of college during this time even harder than it fucked us.

EVERY generation has an issue turning out the youth vote. It's a never ending issue. It's not like old millennials and young gen x'ers were storming the polls. Rock The Vote wasn't a (horribly ineffective) thing because young people were voting in droves. Whatever stupid marketing slogan you want to attach to whatever I am didn't wield our power, either.

Revolution in comfort is hard. THAT is the issue. That's why the youth vote never turns out, and that is why the mass shooting generation has a chance to flip that script. They're being forced out of the comfort zone.
 
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The youth don’t turn out — and never have — because the stakes literally cannot be as high for them. Generally, they don’t have kids our houses or health care concerns. Yes, many, like the people who post in here, are able to grasp more abstract concerns and are naturally more politically minded, but your average person votes on what are known as “kitchen table” issues, and young people (under 30) don’t really have kitchen tables, in the abstract.

It’s not a slam. It’s the truth. As people get older they vote more frequently.

They are occasionally moved by a candidate like Clinton in 1992 or Obama in 2008 — but their overall numbers are still small. They can make real differences in close elections, and turn, say, an Obama win into a landslide. But to make them the center of a campaign is foolish.

The GOP realizes that they are doomed in the suburbs with Trump, especially amongst suburban women. Literally their only hope is that these women get scared of losing their health insurance via M4A. And suburban women vote. Karen votes. Don’t scare Karen.
 
Jerry Dunk said:
Blaming Russian trolls for 2016 shows you learned nothing about what happened. The impact has been massively overblown by people whose livelihoods depend on not having been wrong with everything they did in 2016.
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Actually I would say the exact opposite. The Russian influence has been largely "underblown". I don't think that millions of people on social media realized they were being influenced and often interacting directly with people who were not actually Sanders or Clinton supporters, but teams of Russian trolls that were being paid to do exactly what I said. Tear down Clinton, equate her to being as bad or worse than Trump and by saying everything was rigged and stolen from Sanders. They even made fake Bernie websites, set up fake events.
I think the sad part is that so many people didn't realize how easily they were manipulated.

All I'm saying is that, ANY Dem nominee is light years better than Trump in every way, that after a nominee is decided, being pulled in again to whatever fake troll narrative is put out this time is a real danger for Democrats success. And this time it will be Russian, Chinese, Saudi trolls all pushing for another Trump victory.
The way Trump won when he had huge unfavorable ratings, is to have the Dem nominee pulled down and torn apart enough to bring their unfavorables down to his level. And that was the aim of these trolls, and his campaign. Which you know, never conspired with eachother. :|

Not sure why the pushback on saying we should be united against possibly the worst human being to breathe air in our lifetime, in order to defeat him.
 
https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/newsroom/press-kits/2017/voting-and-registration/figure04.png

The youth vote is sort of fools gold. But I do have hope that there are more active groups on the ground now, along with movements like Parkland, that will hopefully maximize whatever possible turnout there is.
The other hopefully helpful thing this time around will be (fingers crossed) no third party candidates on the left. I would hope the Green Party would see that Trump being defeated would be the best thing for any environmental efforts, than running a third party candidate. But, can't say the Green party has actually put logic into their actions much.

Of the youth vote in 2016 almost 15% voted third party. Stein won more votes in WI, MI, and PA than the margin of victory for Trump.

So we do need a candidate that can engage them enough not to vote third party, but also not just be the candidate of white, college educated liberals. This is not an easy line to walk. And right now, not seeing that candidate. I thought Harris could be, but she just has stalled. I think Warren does connect with non white voters when they get to hear her. But it will be a long hard road to really build meaningful support from minority voters for her.
 
New Morning Consult poll - Biden up 2 points to 33% - Sanders 20, Warren 15.

The figures are broken out among Democratic primary voters nationwide and in early primary states, which includes just voters who live in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada. The latest results are based on 17,303 survey interviews conducted between August 19-25, 2019.

The Monmouth poll from yesterday, could have been an outlier (in a big way) or it may be that it is starting to foresee at least a trend of Biden weakening. I'm not sure. Hopefully a couple more polls in the next week will give a better idea of whats happening.
 
I think we really need to start thinning out the herd to see where votes will consolidate. Also, the closer we get to 2020, the less meaningful national polls will be and the more attention will be paid to the early states. I don't understand why Morning Consult consolidates the 4 early states votes - that tells us absolutely nothing because Iowa has almost nothing in common with South Carolina, nor does Nevada have much in common with NH. Would be better to see individual breakdowns.

Let's also not forget that generally the entertainment world was fairly lukewarm to Hillary Clinton. Compare that to Obama's 2008 election, where crowds were massive and always electrified by A-listers. Sure, you'll have people who say they don't want Hollywood to tell them who to vote for, but there really needs to be a concerted and robust effort next summer/fall. Bruce Springsteen should literally be parked in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin every weekend in September and October of 2020. And use other celebrities in strategic ways. You can have Katie Perry driving some youth vote, you can have Tim McGraw and Faith Hill parked in strategic southern states and so on. What the Democrats need is an electric electorate, a sense of excitement, and to not cede the crowds and epic events to Trump in the media.
 
anitram said:
I think we really need to start thinning out the herd to see where votes will consolidate. Also, the closer we get to 2020, the less meaningful national polls will be and the more attention will be paid to the early states. I don't understand why Morning Consult consolidates the 4 early states votes - that tells us absolutely nothing because Iowa has almost nothing in common with South Carolina, nor does Nevada have much in common with NH. Would be better to see individual breakdowns.

Let's also not forget that generally the entertainment world was fairly lukewarm to Hillary Clinton. Compare that to Obama's 2008 election, where crowds were massive and always electrified by A-listers. Sure, you'll have people who say they don't want Hollywood to tell them who to vote for, but there really needs to be a concerted and robust effort next summer/fall. Bruce Springsteen should literally be parked in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin every weekend in September and October of 2020. And use other celebrities in strategic ways. You can have Katie Perry driving some youth vote, you can have Tim McGraw and Faith Hill parked in strategic southern states and so on. What the Democrats need is an electric electorate, a sense of excitement, and to not cede the crowds and epic events to Trump in the media.
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Yeah the Morning Consult poll would be nice to see a breakdown. Especially since its a mix of both national respondents and primary state respondents. I'm sure that the campaigns are scouring the cross-tabs to see how they are doing in certain states, but we just see the end numbers.

I agree with the last point. We have an entertainment president. It's all about perception and drawing attention. And it can't just be these last minute things like they were with Clinton. Start them early, get huge crowds and be there to register people like crazy. Enlist volunteers. And as much as i love Bruce and Katie, Tim and Faith.
Would be awesome to see the freshest of talent really get involved, if we are serious about the youth vote.
Dems too often fall back on old ideas. They need to start learning from the actual grass roots groups on the ground now, and build something unique to beat this orange clown at his own game.
 
a little more insight into the Morning Consult poll.

Our Democratic Primary results are reported using 17,303 interviews with registered voters who indicate they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in their state. For those who say don’t know or no opinion, they are asked to pick a candidate they are leaning towards. Results are reported among first choice and those who lean towards a candidate. The interviews were collected from August 19-25, 2019 and have a margin of error of +/- 1%. The “Early Primary State Voters” demographic consists of 745 voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.

So first impression is that this is really a national poll. Only about 4% are from the primary states listed.
Interesting to see the margin of error on this is +/- 1.
The Monmouth, was =/- 7 I believe.
 
They also poll the exact same people every week, so their results would be more static. I think quite a few polling companies are starting to do that for the obvious reason (saving $).
 
This is an interesting way to look at how favourability ratings have changed over the summer:

rakich-favorability-ratings-0826-02-2.png
 
Trump: Still making it great for racists in America...

Three Ole' Miss University students posed with guns in from of a shot up roadside memorial sign for Emitt Till It's not known yet whether they fired the shots. (still disgusting)

From Pro Publica


ProPublica reports that the students, each of whom is white, have been suspended by their fraternity as a result of their actions.

From ProPublica:

One of the students posted a photo to his private Instagram account in March showing the trio in front of a roadside plaque commemorating the site where Till’s body was recovered from the Tallahatchie River. The 14-year-old black youth was tortured and murdered in August 1955. An all-white, all-male jury acquitted two white men accused of the slaying.

The photo, which was obtained by the Mississippi Center for Investigative Reporting and ProPublica, shows an Ole Miss student named Ben LeClere holding a shotgun while standing in front of the bullet-pocked sign. His Kappa Alpha fraternity brother, John Lowe, squats below the sign. A third fraternity member stands on the other side with an AR-15 semi-automatic rifle. The photo appears to have been taken at night, the scene illuminated by lights from a vehicle.
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womanfish said:
a little more insight into the Morning Consult poll.

Our Democratic Primary results are reported using 17,303 interviews with registered voters who indicate they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in their state. For those who say don’t know or no opinion, they are asked to pick a candidate they are leaning towards. Results are reported among first choice and those who lean towards a candidate. The interviews were collected from August 19-25, 2019 and have a margin of error of +/- 1%. The “Early Primary State Voters” demographic consists of 745 voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.

So first impression is that this is really a national poll. Only about 4% are from the primary states listed.
Interesting to see the margin of error on this is +/- 1.
The Monmouth, was =/- 7 I believe.
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That’s actually a poll of likely democrat primary voters, not a national poll. Only reason I say that is because the Monmouth poll might have not asked that - not sure. The former case misses the mix of republicans and independents in closed states.
 
Irving, et al Re: Youth Vote

Maybe the YV will turn out more because of the mass shootings, and climate change at the very least (besides those who are very anti-trump for all of many other various reasons as well.

I was already interested in political stuff by the time I was a tween (even before MLK and RFKs assasinations).

Probably because of the Vietnam War and for some the Civil Rights Movement we were chomping at the bit to have the 18 yr old voting age enacted! I turned 18 in 1971, I've voted in (99%) almost every election; local,State and Federal and most primaries since then.

So maybe more young voters will register and vote this time!

There's going to be a Youth Strike Climate Change Event Sept 20 -27 in the USA and world wide. Strikes on the 20th & 27th and activism the whole week.

Unless i'm really sidelined by sickness or accident i will do my damnedest to get whomever the Democratic Nominee is into the WH. My favored choices are Harris, Buttigeig, Harris and Booker. I'll also be paying attention to The Senate and House races, of course!
______________________________

Now, headache what the hell is your overgeneralization and near condemnation of "The Boomers" about?

I caught something on ? housing prices and mortages, maaaaybe pensions a few months back. I've always rented so i haven't super attention to that (of course, i was thrilled some decades back when one set of my aunts & uncles paid off their mortgage).

We with our olders back then finally closed down the Vietnam War, we helped in fighting for Equal Rights for women, i wouldn't have had the courage to go down South for voting rights actions; but have done my best to vote liberal and progressive all these years to push people of colors lives to be actual first class citizens of this country as well, I became conscious of LG (more nuances came later) discrimination issues after Stonewall, i marched, voted against nuclear weapons, nuclear power and for renewable engergies in the 80's. These are the efforts that came to my mind the quickest; i've always tried to educate people my age, younger and older on these issues and more. So have of some my friends of boomer (older and younger, too) as well.

Blame some boomers for some issues; that's reasonable but - stop this blanket condemnation of all of us. 'K?
 
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I admittedly know very little about him. Is he always rude and yelling?
 
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