it's not like countries like Greece, Portugal, Ireland etc have that much produce they can export to other countries (esp compared to the amount they need to import)
so, at the moment, the increase in export will be limited
however, the major consequence a devaluation of their currencies will have is that it will become even harder for them to pay of their debts and more expensive to import
as a result, unless they are willing to go bankrupt (which would probably result in a situation where it will become impossible for them to borrow any money again the next decade or so at least), it would do infinitely more harm than good
Italy might benefit in export because of a devalued currency
but as their debt is already enormous, they will really be in trouble
the only country that might benefit is Spain
but only if they would be able to transform their massive unemployment rate into a productive workforce
I think the Euro will survive because no one has a clue what the consequences will be of any of the alternatives
at the same time, no amount of budget cuts will transform the performances of Greece etc into good performing economies unless they are able to increase their income through increased productivity somehow
I hope this will finally result in unified fiscal and economic European approach
perhaps some good might come of it then in the long run
I don't think it's fair to put Ireland in the same bag of Greece and Portugal. Ireland has a way different economical structure, it has a very different taxes policy and a very different way to treat companies and enterprises. IMO, that's the main reason why I think Ireland was the so-called miracle and why it's gonna recover much faster than other countries.
The problem with Spain is definitely that. Spain did one thing well: Spain said "screw you" to the Common Agriculturak and Industrial Policy that benefited other countries (that had been literally paying to other economies to shut their productive sectors down). I think Spain has a huge unemployment rate because of bizarre labourist policies such as the wage and the complex hiring policies.
In fact, all these countries have very different problems: Greece had budget deficit that evolved in a debt and structurak problem; Italy has mainly a public debt problem; Portugal has mainly a problem of competitiveness and economical sustainability; France has a welfare state which is beyond huge; etc. But together all these problems evolve into a stuctrural problem for every country.
Devaluation of the currency would be good for countries like Greece and Portugal. The problem is that the public and private debt (Greece has a "tolerable" private debt, but Portugal has a private debt which is the double of the public) would "cost" the double/triple/whatever.
Then, to increase exports and decrease the external dependancy... Since the european common market is now so dependant from each other and since most export markets of european countries are... other european markets... Would european countries allow the other to raise protectionist policies? Of course not.
There's no f***ing way countries like Greece and Portugal will rise up and transform their economies unless they're allowed to. No developped economy, specially in the european context, can survive with an agriculture that represents 2% of the economy and an industry that represents only 22% of the economy, because they were being payed for decades to shut it down. That does not exist, it's an utopia.
I try to read international european press and the stigma that some create about the "bad pupils of the south" (as mere example) is so dangerous, that it seems that Europe constantly forgets about its own history.
Unless that changes and unless Europe changes its leaders by someone with a vision, with the notion that we've been living in peace for 60 years but our "genesis", the national identities and the call for the abyss was never over, it only has been numb for 60 years and we have to put it numb again.
Unless it happens, I think that Europe is playing a very dangerous game again.