Will they sell out stadiums in the USA?

[hocyouthguy]

That show sold-out in the sense that every ticket sold... they didn't, however, put every seat up for sale.

Really? I was there and people were walking up the day of and getting tickets. There were definitely more and more empty seats the further you got from the stage and I can't imagine that there were some seats not behind the stage that weren't for sale. I think the relatively poor showing was due to the reschedule and the fact that Honolulu's a small, isolated market and the boys just aren't very big in the islands (vis a vis the mainland - of course they have fans everywhere, but relatively speaking).

 

[dopper]

If they don't play any shows in Los Angeles and Phoenix in the summer of 2010, they should be able to play to 70,000 people in San Diego. Oh by the way, they were able to do "half that" on POPMART.

You do realize San Diego is a 6 hour drive from Phoenix?

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

They might, but I don't think that you can take that for granted.

In fact, it would be difficult to imagine that the 2010 tour would only hit markets that were missed in the 2009 tour. Keep in mind that U2 made repeat visits to large markets on the added legs of the Elevation and Vertigo tours; there's no reason they wouldn't do the same thing on this tour.

Well, the reason might be that they want to do a stadium show in a place like San Diego, and with no shows in LA and Phoenix, that becomes easier to do.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

You do realize San Diego is a 6 hour drive from Phoenix?

There are U2 fans that travel to Hawaii, Australia, Europe, and South America for shows. A 6 hour drive is not that much in that respect. Just think what die hard U2 fans in North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Alaska Wyoming, and Nebraska have had to do on most tours. If U2 do not play Arizona on the second leg, there will be a few thousand Arizona fans that will travel to other shows to see them.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

Really? I was there and people were walking up the day of and getting tickets. There were definitely more and more empty seats the further you got from the stage and I can't imagine that there were some seats not behind the stage that weren't for sale. I think the relatively poor showing was due to the reschedule and the fact that Honolulu's a small, isolated market and the boys just aren't very big in the islands (vis a vis the mainland - of course they have fans everywhere, but relatively speaking).

The U2 show in Hawaii on Vertigo was the largest attended show in the HISTORY of the State of Hawaii. 45,000 people were there, giving U2 the attendance record for a concert in Hawaii.

 

[U2FanPeter]

The U2 show in Hawaii on Vertigo was the largest attended show in the HISTORY of the State of Hawaii. 45,000 people were there, giving U2 the attendance record for a concert in Hawaii.

Didn't MJ do 2 stadium shows in January 1997?

 

[kohoutek]

That seems a bit low. The Rolling Stones sold out Scott Stadium in 2005 (also a mid-week show in October).

I think the Stones have maybe a little more drawing power in mid sized (Raleigh) and smaller (Charlottesville) markets. However, I think C-ville will do well in that it will draw from Richmond, Roanoke, Hampton Roads, and DC-overflow.

The Stones have sold out a couple shows at Carter-Finley in the past 20 years, and also one at Wallace-Wade (Duke). I think U2 will do better than the predicted 31K in Raleigh. It's on a Saturday night and will draw from Hampton Roads, VA, and Charlotte (not to be confused with Charlottesville or Charleston for those of you not from The Carolinas/VA ).

The wildcards in all of this are 1) the economy and 2) if U2 really are a stadium act similar to the Stones in the US. Sounds like sales are great in Europe thus far, but a lot of bands that can fill stadiums in Europe play smaller venues in the US. U2 generates plenty of scarcity of supply in the US when they do arenas, but I don't think they are quite up to The Stones in terms of ability to fill stadiums (and even the Stones sold slower than they have in the past last time out). Even so, I predict at least 50K in Raleigh and sellout in C-ville.

 

[pudgie_child]

Well, the reason might be that they want to do a stadium show in a place like San Diego, and with no shows in LA and Phoenix, that becomes easier to do.

If U2's 2010 tour only hit cities that they missed in 2009, it would be a money losing tour. They would need big city turnouts to justify the expense of the tour, IMO.

 

[Chino]

shut up and stop pulling idiotic facts.

Calm down a little. I didn't state it as a fact. How different would it be if you could say the same thing in a different tone. People disagree here and make their points without trying to sound all tough and macho. Relax dude.

I live near San Diego and I will never see U2 at Qualcomm again. Qualcomm is a horrible place to see a concert, and the people who live in San Diego likely know that.

Generally speaking, most (maybe all?) major stadium shows in San Diego go to Petco Park now. Whether U2 would be willing to break their "football stadium only" policy is another question.

I somehow can't see U2 coming back to San Diego to play a stadium. Arenas, sure, stadiums, Iiiiii dunno. Zoo TV and PopMart were half-empty.

 

[U2FanPeter]

If I remember correctly, it(edit: zootv) broke even.

Chino, this was the quote in question. It is nowhere near factually correct. It's also quite probalematic to keep on having it repeated. Do you not ask yourself why they go on a 2 year tour is it only breaks even?

The arena leg of the tour had to sell at 75% capacity to break even, which is 4-5 times the normal rate for arena shows. They still made money on merch at the usual markups.

The stadium legs would have all been quite lucrative.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

The wildcards in all of this are 1) the economy and 2) if U2 really are a stadium act similar to the Stones in the US. Sounds like sales are great in Europe thus far, but a lot of bands that can fill stadiums in Europe play smaller venues in the US. U2 generates plenty of scarcity of supply in the US when they do arenas, but I don't think they are quite up to The Stones in terms of ability to fill stadiums (and even the Stones sold slower than they have in the past last time out). Even so, I predict at least 50K in Raleigh and sellout in C-ville.

U2 beat out the Stones nearly everywhere outside the USA/Canada when it came to stadium shows with the Vertigo Tour. Its true the Stones may be stronger in the USA/Canada, but the Stones did not play stadiums in Philadelphia and Washington DC on A Bigger Bang Tour. Two of the largest markets in North America.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

I somehow can't see U2 coming back to San Diego to play a stadium. Arenas, sure, stadiums, Iiiiii dunno. Zoo TV and PopMart were half-empty.

That would be true if they were playing San Diego and Los Angeles on the same leg of the tour. But its likely they will do Los Angeles this leg, and then when they return to southern California in 2010, Los Angeles will be skipped and there will be a show in San Diego. Not playing LA will create a level of demand for A San Diego show that did not exist on ZOO TV and POPMART.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

Didn't MJ do 2 stadium shows in January 1997?

He did, but neither of the shows had 45,000 people or more in attendance.

 

[U2FanPeter]

He did, but neither of the shows had 45,000 people or more in attendance.

Didn't U2 only sell 30,000 before the date was re-scheduled, seating re-configured and Pearl Jam added?

 

[Yahweh]

I dont know why people keep throwing Canada into the mix with the USA its a totally different market and one of U2s strongest markets in the world.

U2 played to 120 thousand people here in Edmonton on Popmart and they could do it again very easily.

Can U2 sell out stadiums in the US depends on how many shows they play if they are only playing the current dates no doubt they will sell out. Oversaturating the US market would be a mistake though because the US fanbase is still relitively week compaired to the rest of the world.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

If U2's 2010 tour only hit cities that they missed in 2009, it would be a money losing tour. They would need big city turnouts to justify the expense of the tour, IMO.

The demand levels far exceed the cost of the tour. The stadium shows on Vertigo, all cost including off days, came out to about 1.2 million per show. The average gross per show was over 4.5 million. Even if the new tour cost an average of 2 million per show, the gross on this tour will likely average 7 million per show.

I never said that they would only hit cities they missed in 2009 on the 2010 legs. They will probably return to places like London, New York City, and Boston.

Again though, any shows they decide to do will yield an enormous profit. Although I agree they will probably return to a few cities they played in 2009, if they wanted to, they could just return to the following cities and make an enormous sum of money:

North America:

San Diego
San Francisco
Edmonton
Winnipeg
Montreal
Seattle
Minneapolis
Madison
Philadelphia
Detroit
Columbus
Pittsburgh
Salt Lake City
Hartford
Miami



Europe:

Brussels
Frankfurt
Hamburg
Munich
Vienna
Zurich
Rome
Turin
Helsinki
Madrid
Lisbon
Cork


Then of course, there is Mexico, South America, Australia, New Zealand, Japan.

 

[pudgie_child]

The demand levels far exceed the cost of the tour. The stadium shows on Vertigo, all cost including off days, came out to about 1.2 million per show. The average gross per show was over 4.5 million. Even if the new tour cost an average of 2 million per show, the gross on this tour will likely average 7 million per show.

I never said that they would only hit cities they missed in 2009 on the 2010 legs. They will probably return to places like London, New York City, and Boston.

Again though, any shows they decide to do will yield an enormous profit. Although I agree they will probably return to a few cities they played in 2009, if they wanted to, they could just return to the following cities and make an enormous sum of money:

North America:

San Diego
San Francisco
Edmonton
Winnipeg
Montreal
Seattle
Minneapolis
Madison
Philadelphia
Detroit
Columbus
Pittsburgh
Salt Lake City
Hartford
Miami


Then of course, there is Mexico, South America, Australia, New Zealand, Japan.

This is where we differ: Aside from the large markets on that list (Philly, SF, and maybe Detroit), I think the band would only draw 30,000 - 40,000 in most of those markets, especially with their published ticket prices. I am being a little more realistic and don't think that a Qualcomm show in San Diego would do better than 35-40,000, regardless if it was the only city in Southern California they were playing.

In that case, due to the lower production costs, two arena shows make more sense than one stadium show - and to extrapolate, an arena tour of small/medium markets makes more sense than a stadium tour.

 

[tommycharles]

And the assumption that ticket demand in 2005, with a pretty strong selling album and a hit single that people still remember 4 years later, will hold up through 2009, with a weak selling album and a single that most people haven't heard and most others find irritating, simply isn't true for U2.

 

[Lemonfix]

And the assumption that ticket demand in 2005, with a pretty strong selling album and a hit single that people still remember 4 years later, will hold up through 2009, with a weak selling album and a single that most people haven't heard and most others find irritating, simply isn't true for U2.

You may be be right, but at this point, how do we know the album will be weak selling?

 

[The_acrobat]

You may be be right, but at this point, how do we know the album will be weak selling?

Clearly "Boots" is not a hit. They should have released Magnificent as a single the week the album was released to try to get a hit out of the album and boost sales. But they seem to be taking their sweet time on that. I think by the time Magnificent gets a chance as a single, the album will be a lost cause.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

And the assumption that ticket demand in 2005, with a pretty strong selling album and a hit single that people still remember 4 years later, will hold up through 2009, with a weak selling album and a single that most people haven't heard and most others find irritating, simply isn't true for U2.

Weak selling album? Your calling No Line On the Horizon a weak selling album?

What do you think the biggest selling albums are so far in 2009 in the USA? There have been 10 weeks in 2009 so far, about a 20% of the year. Here are the top 100 selling albums after 10 weeks:


01 - 685,451 - FEARLESS - Taylor Swift
02 - 490,113 - I AM…SASHA FIERCE - Beyonce
03 - 484,499 - NO LINE ON THE HORIZON - U2
04 - 475,845 - DARK HORSE - Nickelback
05 - 459,012 - WORKING ON A DREAM - Bruce Springsteen
06 - 384,564 - 808S AND HEARTBREAK - Kanye West
07 - 368,901 - THE FRAY - The Fray
08 - 344,029 - INTUITION - Jamie Foxx
09 - 321,659 - TWILIGHT - Soundtrack
10 - 321,441 - A DIFFERENT ME - Keyshia Cole
11 - 313,932 - CIRCUS - Britney Spears
12 - 259,783 - THE FAME - Lady GaGa
13 - 259,475 - NOW 29 - Various
14 - 250,617 - PAPER TRAIL - T.I.
15 - 235,793 - FUNHOUSE - Pink
16 - 226,934 - FREEDOM - Akon
17 - 222,495 - VIVA LA VIDA OR DEATH AND ALL HIS FRIENDS - Coldplay
18 - 211,401 - WE SING WE DANCE WE STEAL THINGS - Jason Mraz
19 - 205,545 - DAVID COOK - David Cook
20 - 195,753 - SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE - Soundtrack
21 - 192,831 - MAMMA MIA - Soundtrack
22 - 184,788 - 19 - Adele
23 - 184,049 - THA CARTER III - Lil' Wayne
24 - 183,563 - ONLY BY THE NIGHT - Kings Of Leon
25 - 183,251 - YEAR OF THE GENTLEMAN - Ne-Yo
26 - 177,734 - GOOD GIRL GONE BAD - Rihanna
27 - 175,225 - ROCK N ROLL JESUS - Kid Rock
28 - 169,128 - 2009 GRAMMY NOMINEES - Various
29 - 168,344 - RAISING SAND - Robert Plant & Alison Krauss
30 - 165,357 - ONE OF THE BOYS - Katy Perry
31 - 155,127 - TAYLOR SWIFT - Taylor Swift
32 - 152,598 - WHEN THE WORLD COMES DOWN - All-American Rejects
33 - 146,138 - TESTIMONY:VOL 2-LOVE AND POLITICS - India.Arie
34 - 144,652 - THEATER OF THE MIND - Ludacris
35 - 143,800 - LOVE ON THE INSIDE - Sugarland
36 - 136,469 - THE FOUNDATION - Zac Brown Band
37 - 134,796 - LEARN TO LIVE - Darius Rucker
38 - 134,562 - DAY AND AGE - Killers
39 - 134,490 - FEEL THAT FREE - Dierks Bentley
40 - 132,420 - DA REALIST - Plies
41 - 130,664 - THE POINT OF IT ALL - Anthony Hamilton
42 - 127,897 - HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL 3: SENIOR YEAR - Soundtrack
43 - 127,481 - SOUL - Seal
44 - 125,465 - IT'S NOT ME IT'S YOU - Lily Allen
45 - 122,440 - DEATH MAGNETIC - Metallica
46 - 121,546 - NOTORIOUS - Soundtrack
47 - 118,775 - EVOLVER - John Legend
48 - 117,788 - FOLIE A DEUX - Fall Out Boy
49 - 114,663 - BLACK ICE - AC/DC
50 - 111,101 - SWAN SONGS - Hollywood Undead
51 - 110,086 - JENNIFER HUDSON - Jennifer Hudson
52 - 107,599 - THE REBIRTH - Bobby Valentino
53 - 107,339 - SPIRIT - Leona Lewis
54 - 102,643 - KIDZ BOP 15 - Kidz Bop Kids
55 - 101,403 - THAT LONESOME SONG - Jamey Johnson
56 - 99,875 - GREATEST HITS VOLUME 1 - Rascal Flatts
57 - 99,600 - GOLD-GREATEST HITS - Abba
58 - 95,766 - INCREDIBAD - Lonely Island
59 - 95,709 - THR33 RINGZ - T-Pain
60 - 95,610 - FEARLESS - Jazmine Sullivan
61 - 94,045 - ROCKFERRY - Duffy
62 - 93,741 - DAVID ARCHULETA - David Archuleta
63 - 93,083 - THE PROMISE - Il Divo
64 - 92,790 - UNCLE CHARLIE - Charlie Wilson
65 - 92,420 - THE RECESSION - Young Jeezy
66 - 91,399 - SCARS AND SOUVENIRS - Theory Of A Deadman
67 - 91,235 - TAKE IT TO THE LIMIT - Hinder
68 - 90,225 - WRATH - Lamb Of God
69 - 89,822 - ONMYRADIO - Musiq Soulchild
70 - 87,630 - CARNIVAL RIDE - Carrie Underwood
71 - 85,797 - ORACULAR SPECTACULAR - MGMT
72 - 84,821 - THE BALLADS - Mariah Carey
73 - 84,001 - LADY ANTEBELLUM - Lady Antebellum
74 - 82,900 - GREATEST HITS - Guns N'Roses
75 - 81,887 - ALL HOPE IS GONE - Slipknot
76 - 81,178 - CHINESE DEMOCRACY - Guns N'Roses
77 - 80,150 - GREATEST HITS - Journey
78 - 79,902 - NOW MOTOWN - Various
79 - 79,829 - ISOULJABOYTELLEM - Soulja Boy Tell'em
80 - 79,724 - SAVING ABEL - Saving Abel
81 - 78,906 - TOTAL CLUB HITS 2 - DJ Skribble
82 - 78,243 - DOLL DOMINATION - Pussycat Dolls
83 - 76,286 - A LITTLE BIT LONGER - Jonas Brothers
84 - 75,981 - LUCKY OLD SUN - Kenny Chesney
85 - 73,300 - CHRONICLE:THE 20 GREATEST HITS - Creedence Clearwater Revival
86 - 73,172 - FLEET FOXES - Fleet Foxes
87 - 73,050 - LEGEND - Bob Marley & the Wailers
88 - 72,990 - INDESTRUCTIBLE - Disturbed
89 - 72,834 - THE SOUND OF MADNESS - Shinedown
90 - 70,730 - TONIGHT: FRANZ FERDINAND - Franz Ferdinand
91 - 70,079 - NOBLE BEAST - Andrew Bird
92 - 69,050 - MERRIWEATHER POST PAVILLION - Animal Collective
93 - 68,767 - 3D CONCERT EXPERIENCE - Jonas Brothers
94 - 67,849 - BREAKOUT - Miley Cyrus
95 - 66,400 - RIOT - Paramore
96 - 65,450 - MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT - Linkin Park
97 - 65,397 - UNIVERSAL MIND CONTROL - Common
98 - 64,274 - GOOD TIME - Alan Jackson
99 - 63,156 - THAT DON'T MAKE ME A BAD GUY - Toby Keith
100 - 62,446 - TROUBADOUR - George Strait



No Line.... after just ONE week is the 3rd biggest selling album in the United States so far this year. HTDAAB finished at #8 for the year in the USA in 2005. No Line... is well on its way to equaling the success that HTDAAB had in 2005 or surpassing it. Unit to Unit comparisons of album sales between different years are NOT possible since album sales all across the market have dropped significantly since 2005. The only accurate comparison that can be done is how the album sells relative to other albums in the same year.

Here is how many copies the top 10 selling albums released last year in 2008 have sold to date:

LIL WAYNE - Tha Carter III : 3 million
TAYLOR SWIFT - Fearless : 2,4 million
COLDPLAY - Viva La Vida or Death And All His Friends : 2,2 million
AC/DC - Black Ice : 2 million
BEYONCE - I Am... Sasha Fierce : 1,7 million
T.I. - Paper Trail : 1,6 million
METALLICA - Death Magnetic : 1,6 million
Various Artists - MAMMA MIA (soundtrack) : 1,5 million
JACK JOHNSON - Sleep Through The Static : 1,5 million
NICKELBACK - Dark Horse : 1,4 million

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

I think by the time Magnificent gets a chance as a single, the album will be a lost cause.

Thats absurd. This album is already on track to be one of the top 5 biggest of the year, which makes it an equal success to HTDAAB in 2005 or Achtung Baby in 1992.

 

[pudgie_child]

Weak selling album? Your calling No Line On the Horizon a weak selling album?

What do you think the biggest selling albums are so far in 2009 in the USA? There have been 10 weeks in 2009 so far, about a 20% of the year. Here are the top 100 selling albums after 10 weeks:


01 - 685,451 - FEARLESS - Taylor Swift
02 - 490,113 - I AM…SASHA FIERCE - Beyonce
03 - 484,499 - NO LINE ON THE HORIZON - U2

Mmmm . . . Taylor Swift

She's over 18, right?

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

This is where we differ: Aside from the large markets on that list (Philly, SF, and maybe Detroit), I think the band would only draw 30,000 - 40,000 in most of those markets, especially with their published ticket prices. I am being a little more realistic and don't think that a Qualcomm show in San Diego would do better than 35-40,000, regardless if it was the only city in Southern California they were playing.

In that case, due to the lower production costs, two arena shows make more sense than one stadium show - and to extrapolate, an arena tour of small/medium markets makes more sense than a stadium tour.

So, if U2 only plays 1 show in the south eastern United States, you actually think that it will only be attended by 35,000 people? How many people do you think will be at U2's show at the Rose Bowl, which is currently their only South California show? Do you really think that if they changed the venue to San Diego instead of LA that only 35,000 people would show up, yet two hours north, you'll get 90,000 people and potentially another show?


The reason San Diego works well in the summer of 2010 is because they will likely skip LA, Phoenix and Las Vegas since they are playing them on this leg. This is the strategy that is already being used on the first leg. Skip Philadelphia to help DC and markets to the south. Skip San Francisco and San Diego to make people converge on LA. Skip Miami to push people north into the Tampa market.




So going back to list:

San Diego -works with no shows in LA, Phoenix, and Las Vegas
San Francisco - already a big market that will probably get some people from the LA area.
Edmonton - U2 soldout TWO shows here on POPMART
Winnipeg - U2 soldout a show here on POPMART
Montreal - Big market that always has strong sales every tour
Seattle - Two shows here for Vertigo soldout in minutes. With no show in Vancouver on this leg, and no shows in Oregon, demand will be through the roof.
Minneapolis - this is a market you could question.
Madison - U2 will likely beat the 62,000 figure that got on ZOO TV here with no shows in Chicago which is nearby.
Philadelphia - this market will probably get two stadium shows
Detroit - this will be a tough market
Columbus - should do very well here, right in the center of Ohio. Had one of the higher attendences for POPMART.
Pittsburgh - this will be a tough market.
Denver - with no shows to the south, this should do very well.
Salt Lake City - should do just as well as Las Vegas on the first leg.
Hartford - with no shows in Boston, this market will do very well.
Miami - One of U2's top markets now aided by the fact that there is not a show in Tampa or Atlanta.



U2 will make more money with a single stadium show in San Diego than they would with two arena shows, especially when you consider that the San Diego arena only holds 13,000 people. Its also likely that U2 will finish the second leg of the US tour in either Miami or San Diego which will help increase demand even more in those markets.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

Mmmm . . . Taylor Swift

She's over 18, right?

19 and it will probably only take a few weeks for Fearless to be overtaken by No Line On The Horizon.

 

[bigwali]

Thats absurd. This album is already on track to be one of the top 5 biggest of the year, which makes it an equal success to HTDAAB in 2005 or Achtung Baby in 1992.

Folks, You need to keep things in perspective. Consider this:

Overall album sales have fallen more than 35 percent over the last five years, but U2 was also apparently hurt when “No Line on the Horizon” leaked on the Internet almost two weeks early. According to the media measurement company BigChampagne more than 445,000 people downloaded it illegally before the official release date. “

 

[pudgie_child]

So, if U2 only plays 1 show in the south eastern United States, you actually think that it will only be attended by 35,000 people? How many people do you think will be at U2's show at the Rose Bowl, which is currently their only South California show? Do you really think that if they changed the venue to San Diego instead of LA that only 35,000 people would show up, yet two hours north, you'll get 90,000 people and potentially another show?

U2 will have already played LA & PHX by 2010. In the scenario you've presented, people would have to be willing to make a 3 hour drive from LA (and, yes, it does take 3 hours) or a 6 hour drive from PHX to see U2 again in 2010.

At the prices that U2 is charging, there will not be that many repeat customers.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

Folks, You need to keep things in perspective. Consider this:

Overall album sales have fallen more than 35 percent over the last five years, but U2 was also apparently hurt when “No Line on the Horizon” leaked on the Internet almost two weeks early. According to the media measurement company BigChampagne more than 445,000 people downloaded it illegally before the official release date. “

Yes, but EVERYONE is impacted by the fall in album sales. At the end of 2009, No Line... will likely finish as high or higher on the year end sales chart than HTDAAB did. It does not have to match the unit sales of HTDAAB in 2005 in order to do that.

Just take a look at the top 10 for 2008:

LIL WAYNE - Tha Carter III : 3 million
TAYLOR SWIFT - Fearless : 2,4 million
COLDPLAY - Viva La Vida or Death And All His Friends : 2,2 million
AC/DC - Black Ice : 2 million
BEYONCE - I Am... Sasha Fierce : 1,7 million
T.I. - Paper Trail : 1,6 million
METALLICA - Death Magnetic : 1,6 million
Various Artists - MAMMA MIA (soundtrack) : 1,5 million
JACK JOHNSON - Sleep Through The Static : 1,5 million
NICKELBACK - Dark Horse : 1,4 million

HTDAAB sales from 2005 would have made it the #1 album in 2008. HTDAAB finished at #8 in the USA for 2005. To do that in 2008, 3 years later would have only required 1.5 million sales, about half of what BOMB did in 2005.

 

[Maoilbheannacht]

U2 will have already played LA & PHX by 2010. In the scenario you've presented, people would have to be willing to make a 3 hour drive from LA (and, yes, it does take 3 hours) or a 6 hour drive from PHX to see U2 again in 2010.

At the prices that U2 is charging, there will not be that many repeat customers.

Not everyone lives in downtown LA. A lot of people live between San Diego and LA and they don't have a 3 hour drive. You won't get as many people from Vegas or Phoenix, but you will get some. Your estimate for the number of people is simply based on what they did on previous stadium tours with concurrent shows in Phoenix, Las Vegas and Los Angeles.

Plus, if they think that they might have some trouble filling up a stadium in San Diego, they can make it the last show of the US tour.

As far as ticket prices, this tour has some of the lowest ticket prices U2 have ever charged.

The prices:

$250
$95
$55
$30

$30 dollars in 2009 is the equilivant of $22 dollars in 1997, $19 dollars in 1992, $15 dollars in 1987, and $14 dollars in 1985.

These $30 dollar tickets are the cheapest U2 have charged since the Unforgettable Fire Tour once you adjust for inflation.

 

[pudgie_child]

These $30 dollar tickets are the cheapest U2 have charged since the Unforgettable Fire Tour once you adjust for inflation.

Those $30 seats in Qualcomm would absolutely suck because of the stadium's layout, and a lot of people are familiar enough with the place to know that. It is probably one of the reasons that U2 only drew 30,000 people to the venue in 1997 (in spite of more affordable high-end ticket prices).

Like I mentioned before, their drawing power would almost certainly be better if they put the stadium show at Petco Park. It wouldn't be much worse than the stadium set-up in Milan:

(I'm still thinking that, 60-40, chances are that they do arenas in 2010. )